Viruses: another chicken and egg paradox?

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As the COVID 19 hysteria is unfolding almost all over the world, many are asking the question:

Where did the viruses come from?

ID proponents, like Michael Behe, have gone on record saying that viruses were designed, in most cases they cause no harm, but their role in nature is not yet fully understood here.

On the other hand, the proponents of Darwinian theory of evolution claim that viruses evolved, because why would an omnipotent God/ID designed something harmful, like viruses? So, viruses must’ve evolved…

While I’d like to keep all options for discussion open, I’m going to focus on the lack of mechanism for viruses to evolve to solve the chicken and egg paradox in this case.

Simply put, viruses can’t replicate on their own and need another organism, like bacteria, to help them to do so…But viruses already contain pieces of DNA or RNA, so the varieties of problems open up, including the chicken and egg paradox.

On the other hand, if viruses are harmful, why the omnipotent natural selection has been slacking off for millions, or billions, of years and not eliminated them, including COVID 19, that has mutated right in front of our eyes, and natural selection failed to see it, again…

Or, another option for natural selection would be to help viruses to evolve to self-replicate, or to evolve some sex organs, as speculated by Allan Miller: Sex – a matter of prospective here.

After all has been discussed on the theme, another chicken and egg paradox will remain in the theory of evolution:

What came first?

Virus with bits of pieces of DNA or RNA? Or DNA or RNA worlds? But, the latter would need some kind of a metabolism world first, which leads to another, separate chicken and egg paradox that the theory of evolution is just full of it…😉

 

310 thoughts on “Viruses: another chicken and egg paradox?”

  4. While it’s possible that China can’t be trusted (those darned Ruskies too) but S. Korea, another early hotspot, is also reporting low counts. Their strategy may be worth examination.

  7. Allan Miller:
    While it’s possible that China can’t be trusted (those darned Ruskies too) but S. Korea, another early hotspot, is also reporting low counts. Their strategy may be worth examination.

    Will S. Korea have the same recovery rate as China “claims” to have?

  8. J-Mac: Will S. Korea have the same recovery rate as China “claims” to have?

    Don’t know. Recovery stats are the least reliable of all. Recovered is a proportion of tested, which – at least here – requires one to be symptomatic and hospitalised (or a politician or a member of the royal family, it seems). It guides treatment rather than number crunching. If someone’s discharged while still symptomatic, there is rarely any follow-up to see whether they can be removed from ‘active’ yet, so those stats aren’t accurate.

  9. J-Mac: Full genome characterization of two novel Alpha-coronavirus species from Italian bats

    Published January 2019.

    This is a good example of the sort of evolution that nonlin claims cannot happen (due to “regression to the mean”, apparently).
    Beyond that, not sure what the relevance of this is to the current situation: “coronaviruses have been evolving over the past seven years”. I don’t think anybody ever doubted that. Except, of course, nonlin.

  10. J-Mac: I find these statistics interesting…

    Why?
    What do you infer from these statistics?
    Please be very precise in your use of language, and avoid ellipses.

  13. DNA_Jock: Why?
    What do you infer from these statistics?

    I was wondering how many of those deaths were caused by the other coronavirus…

    DNA_Jock: Please be very precise in your use of language,

    Same language you used when dismissed the picture from the paper as goofy?

    Autophagy: Could it help to prevent COVID-19?

    BTW : Can you tell me who you are, so should listen to your goofy advise on what I should and shouldn’t do? You’d better give a good answer, because I have little respect for people who pretend to be theists…

  14. Allan Miller: there is rarely any follow-up to see whether they can be removed from ‘active’ yet, so those stats aren’t accurate.

    I just noticed this…
    What do you mean, exactly?

  15. J-Mac: I was wondering how many of those deaths were caused by the other coronavirus…

    Huh?
    A couple of bat coronavirus species with a spike protein so far diverged from the human that they couldn’t even try to predict the spike structure.
    Absolutely ZERO indication that these strains could infect humans. Remember, previous bat coronaviruses had to passage through an intermediate host (civets, dromedaries) to become infectious to humans.
    That’s okay. Let’s imagine that you were trying to make a more general, rather vague, point, to wit:

    Hey maybe this suspicious elevation in elderly Italians dying of pneumonia was caused by some previously undetected virus, maybe even a coronavirus…

    Note the use of ellipsis.
    Here’s the thing: there is no “suspicious elevation in elderly Italians dying of pneumonia”.; it is an artifact of plotting the wrong metric. Anytime someone quotes you the number of people dying of X, your “I am being deceived” spidey-sense alarm bells should be going off.
    What you should be looking at are the per capita rates. This is Epidemiology 101.
    By way of illustration, I took some FIXED mortality rates, and applied them to the known “greying” of the Italian population since 1991 (from IDB). Simply put, there are many more elderly Italians than there were 20 years ago. Here’s what we would expect to see, assuming no changes in per capita mortality:

  16. J-Mac: I just noticed this…
    What do you mean, exactly?

    I don’t know how to state it any more clearly. When someone gets sent home, they may still be ill – +1 in ‘active’. No-one checks up on them later to see if they can subsequently be subtracted from ‘active’ and added to ‘recovered’. They have more pressing tasks.

  17. Allan Miller: I don’t know how to state it any more clearly. When someone gets sent home, they may still be ill – +1 in ‘active’. No-one checks up on them later to see if they can subsequently be subtracted from ‘active’ and added to ‘recovered’. They have more pressing tasks.

    I just realized you don’t know what follow-up means…
    I guess you don’t have much contact with the hospital procedures…

    That’s why I asked exactly…

  18. DNA_Jock: Huh?
    A couple of bat coronavirus species with a spike protein so far diverged from the human that they couldn’t even try to predict the spike structure.
    Absolutely ZERO indication that these strains could infect humans. Remember, previous bat coronaviruses had to passage through an intermediate host (civets, dromedaries) to become infectious to humans.
    That’s okay. Let’s imagine that you were trying to make a more general, rather vague, point, to wit:

    Note the use of ellipsis.
    Here’s the thing: there is no “suspicious elevation in elderly Italians dying of pneumonia”.; it is an artifact of plotting the wrong metric. Anytime someone quotes you the number of people dying of X, your “I am being deceived” spidey-sense alarm bells should be going off.
    What you should be looking at are the per capita rates. This is Epidemiology 101.
    By way of illustration, I took some FIXED mortality rates, and applied them to the known “greying” of the Italian population since 1991 (from IDB). Simply put, there are many more elderly Italians than there were 20 years ago. Here’s what we would expect to see, assuming no changes in per capita mortality:

    I expected this …😉

  20. J-Mac: I just realized you don’t know what follow-up means…
    I guess you don’t have much contact with the hospital procedures…

    You’re right, my information only comes from my daughter who is a doctor on a respiratory ward with actual Covid-19 patients, so what the fuck does she know? ***

    That’s why I asked exactly…

    That doesn’t really clarify anything.

    *** eta – here is the Messenger chat we had this morning, before my first comment here on the matter:

    “Me: Is there follow-up when people are sent home to complete recovery?

    11:43

    Her: Not really, if they are well enough to go home then it is presumed they will recover fully I think, we don’t have capacity to keep tabs on all of them!”

  21. Allan Miller: You’re right, my information only comes from my daughter who is a doctor on a respiratory ward with actual Covid-19 patients, so what the fuck does she know?

    As an RN, your daughter should know the guidelines for real follow-ups
    I pretty sure she does, unless she can check BP, O2 sat, body temperature, the infected throat symptoms, etc. over the phone, or online… 😊

  22. Allan Miller: Me: Is there follow-up when people are sent home to complete recovery?

    11:43

    Her: Not really, if they are well enough to go home then it is presumed they will recover fully I think, we don’t have capacity to keep tabs on all of them!”

    This explains it…
    Thanks.
    Due to the circumstances, if their vitals are within acceptable range, there is no reason to keep them…
    The “follow up” is not a real follow up, but rather a phone call to make sure they are not deteriorating…
    Some communities have crisis mobile teams… they go to your home, an RN, or NP, with police to check on you…this could be considered a follow up…

  23. J-Mac: As an RN, your daughter should know the guidelines for real follow-ups
    I pretty sure she does, unless she can check BP, O2 sat, body temperature, the infected throat symptoms, etc. over the phone, or online…

    Like I say, she’s a doctor. And like she says, they don’t have time to be checking up on people who have been discharged.

  24. Allan Miller: Like I say, she’s a doctor. And like she says, they don’t have time to be checking up on people who have been discharged.

    Oh, sorry. She is not doing follow ups herself… makes sense now.
    You got another daughter who is becoming an RN, right?
    Got it mixed up. Apologies…

  25. J-Mac: Oh, sorry. She is not doing follow ups herself… makes sense now.
    You got another daughter who is becoming an RN, right?
    Got it mixed up. Apologies…

    Fair enough. Yes, eldest’s a doctor, youngest’s a (soon-to-be) nurse.

  26. But the more general point stands – no-one is specifically tasked with ticking people off the ‘active’ case register and moving them to ‘recovered’, so that statistic is not being accurately maintained.

  27. Allan Miller: Fair enough. Yes, eldest’s a doctor, youngest’s a (soon-to-be) nurse.

    The eldest’s hands are tied… she can’t go to follow up her patients at home… it’s impossible…
    Is the nurse to be working at a hospital? Or, has the school shut it down by now?

  28. Allan Miller:
    But the more general point stands – no-one is specifically tasked with ticking people off the ‘active’ case register and moving them to ‘recovered’, so that statistic is not being accurately maintained.

    You got that right!

  29. J-Mac: The eldest’s hands are tied… she can’t go to follow up her patients at home… it’s impossible…
    Is the nurse to be working at a hospital? Or,has the school shut it down by now?

    They have been given the option of registering early to help out or continuing to be students and completing their dissertation. If they do the former they get full honours anyway.

  30. Allan Miller: They have been given the option of registering early to help out or continuing to be students and completing their dissertation. If they do the former they get full honours anyway.

    An incentive… how do YOU feel about that, as the father?
    Anxious? Proud? Both?
    Natural feelings either way…😊

  31. J-Mac: An incentive… how do YOU feel about that, as the father?
    Anxious?Proud? Both?

    Bit of both. She won’t be frontline – I doubt they can spare the supervision – but will be backfilling for experienced staff. Her specialism is paediatrics, so won’t experience the worst of it. Eldest is a different matter, but she’s got a few years under her belt, and is in a lower-risk category (ie female).

  32. Allan Miller: Bit of both. She won’t be frontline – I doubt they can spare the supervision – but will be backfilling for experienced staff. Her specialism is paediatrics, so won’t experience the worst of it. Eldest is a different matter, but she’s got a few years under her belt, and is in a lower-risk category (ie female).

    Good stuff!
    She will be fine..
    I have an OP coming up on cov2019 that could provide some relief…hopefully…

  33. Chloroquine has been approved to treat some case of coV12019 patients…

    Can someone remind me what is the mechanism?
    Or, what’s the % of cases that can possibly be treated by chloroquine? Is it more than1%? And, who knows this?

  34. J-Mac: Chloroquine has been approved to treat some case of coV12019 patients…

    Please stop posting untruths.
    The French have allowed the use of hydroxychloroquine, based off some rather iffy data: a NON-RANDOMIZED trial with 20 patients in the active arm.
    I hope Plaquenil works; I hope Kaletra works. But I think remdesivir has the best chances. The jury is still out on all of them, I am afraid.

  35. overview of a few treatment options currently being tested updated 3 days ago

    COVID-19 Drug Therapy – Potential Options

    https://www.elsevier.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/988648/COVID-19-Drug-Therapy_Mar-2020.pdf

    Highlights:
    • There are no specific therapies approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19. Several agents are being used under clinical trial and compassionate use protocols based on in vitro activity (against SARS-CoV-2 or related viruses) and on limited clinical experience. Efficacy has not been established for any drug therapy.
    o Chloroquine–Invitro and limited clinical data suggest potential benefit.
    o Hydroxychloroquine–Invitro and limited clinical data suggest potential benefit.
    o Lopinavir;Ritonavir-Role in the treatment of COVID-19 is unclear.Preclinical data
    suggested potential benefit; however, more recent data has failed to confirm.
    o Remdesivir–Investigationa land available only through expanded access and study protocols; several large clinical trials are underway.
    o Azithromycin–Used in some protocols based on theoretical mechanism and limited preliminary data as adjunct therapy.
    o Tocilizumab–Immunomodulating agent used in some protocols based on theoretical mechanism and limited preliminary data as adjunct therapy.
    o COVID-19convalescentplasma–Investigational use is being studied.
    • Corticosteroid therapy is not recommended for viral pneumonia; however, use may be
    considered for patients with refractory shock or acute respiratory distress syndrome.
    • The FDA continues to investigate the use of NSAIDs in patients with COVID-19 symptoms.
    Concern for potential worsening of COVID-19 symptoms has been suggested, but confirmatory clinical data is lacking at this time.

  39. DNA_Jock: Please stop posting untruths.
    The French have allowed the use of hydroxychloroquine, based off some rather iffy data: a NON-RANDOMIZED trial with 20 patients in the active arm.
    I hope Plaquenil works; I hope Kaletra works. But I think remdesivir has the best chances. The jury is still out on all of them, I am afraid.

    Allowed vs approved???
    Is there anything else you can think of to try to do get back at me for exposing your hypocrisy? 😉
    Look at my comments below the approved statement!
    Can’t you even tell I was being facetious??? Do you need an emoji to comprehend the simplest of comments?

    J-Mac: Can someone remind me what is the mechanism?
    Or, what’s the % of cases that can possibly be treated by chloroquine? Is it more than1%? And, who knows this?

    Is the lockdow making you even paranoid? Chlorpromazine is surely APPROVED! 🤣

  40. J-Mac:
    Is there anything else you can think of to try to do get back at me for exposing your hypocrisy? 😉

    What hypocrisy, pray tell?

    Look at my comments below the approved statement!
    Can’t you even tell I was being facetious??? Do you need an emoji to comprehend the simplest of comments?

    I assume ALL of your comments are facetious. I only correct the ones that are WRONG. Being facetious about a pandemic that has already killed over 35,000 is in poor taste. Being wrong is irresponsible.

    J-Mac: Can someone remind me what is the mechanism?
    Or, what’s the % of cases that can possibly be treated by chloroquine? Is it more than1%? And, who knows this?

    Is the lockdow making you even paranoid? Chlorpromazine is surely APPROVED!

    Ooh look! Another mental health joke.
    Stay classy, my friend.

  41. Novartis’ Sandoz unit will give 130 million doses of generic hydroxychloroquine, which along with the related drug, chloroquine, is currently under evaluation in clinical trials for the treatment of COVID-19.

    https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/novartis-and-bayer-latest-to-donate-chloroquine-for-covid-19

    (Reuters) – Bayer AG said on Thursday it has donated 3 million tablets of the malaria drug Resochin to the U.S. government for potential use to treat COVID-19.

    Resochin, made of chloroquine phosphate and an approved treatment for malaria, is being evaluated in China for its potential use against COVID-19, the disease caused by the fast-spreading coronavirus.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-bayer/bayer-donates-three-million-malaria-tablets-to-us-for-potential-use-against-coronavirus-idUSKBN21637E

  42. Thank you, Mung — maybe J-Mac will believe it coming from you. I can only hope.
    Although that is a blast from the past – back in the day, I was on the team that was doing Novartis’s corporate philanthropy in malaria. Not chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, mind you…

  44. Mung,

    Yikes.
    Well, I hope that they both work, and I hope that patients will understand the Emergency Use Authorization’s absolute requirement that “a clinical trial is not available, or participation is not feasible”.
    This is not an “approval”. It’s equivalent to a compassionate use protocol: note that the drugs have been donated.
    The risk is that this EUA will impair enrollment in clinical trials. Given the lack of data to date, the ethics are pretty iffy; smells like SharpieGate all over again.

  45. DNA_Jock: Yikes.

    Here is something that might make you add a few more ‘Yikes!’ to the situation.

    Didier Raoult seems not someone to be trusted. It also seems that having a subordinate in charge of the Journal you are publishing is more than a bit questionable.

    Unfortunately, these studies are driving opinion and hope that this class of drugs are efficacious for treating COVID-19. I hope the controlled studies now being started demonstrate treatment benefit, however, these studies appear to be fueling a great deal of false hope.

    critique of earlier study:

    Chloroquine genius Didier Raoult to save the world from COVID-19

    Chloroquine genius Didier Raoult to save the world from COVID-19

    a critique of current study.

    Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin versus COVID-19 : grift, conspiracy theories, and another bad study by Didier Raoult

    From science-based medicine written by David Gorski

    Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin versus COVID-19: Grift, conspiracy theories, and another bad study by Didier Raoult

  46. PeterP,

    Listen, trump has been in high level talks with child star Scott Baio and Dog the Bounty Hunter and they both have advised him to give this a fast track to approval. Even Dean Cain has said ‘This is the best job anyone has ever done on anything. It’s like good on steroids. ‘ trump has said the governors who are good comrades, will have no problem getting the drug. Kim Jong Un sent him a letter of congratulations.

    He sent an invitation to Kenny Rogers to give a press briefing on the virus this week, but he was informed that Rogers had already passed away. trump was said to reply, ‘Well what about that guy who sings Achy Breaky Heart? ‘

  50. I do hope there’s enough chloroquine left to treat malaria, lupus, etc. I also hear snake oil is very effective.

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