Lockdown!

Share your experience, tips, advice, questions…

As it seems most communities world-wide are going into voluntary or enforced quarantine that involves staying at home and avoiding physical contact as much as possible, I thought we could have a thread where we could try a bit of mutual support by cheering each other up over the next few days, weeks, months… Who knows?

I don’t know: suggestions on films to watch, books to read, gardening tips, exercise ideas

Usual rules apply plus a guideline. Let’s be kind and supportive to each other.

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818 thoughts on “Lockdown!

  1. Some promising signs from both Spain and Italy that daily new infections are levelling – though deaths, inevitably, continue to rise. Of course all figures need approaching with caution, as apparent trends depend in part on testing strategy and capacity.

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  2. Kantian Naturalist: I somewhat disagree. While in-group/out-group tribalism — including degrees of prejudice and distrust — seems to be run pretty deep in human prehistory, fully-fledged dehumanization requires deliberate effort. (And the more we learn about Neolithic trade routes, the more it seems that there have always been zones of interaction between people of different cultures.)

    Yes, there’s definitely more nuance than I included in my previous comment. I guess what I mean is xenophobia (in the literal sense of distrust or fear of strangers) as a human trait has always been an important element in human history. Whether groups, cultures, peoples follow leaders and ideas that ameliorate or reinforce and exploit that xenophobia leads to outcomes that have led to dispossession, enslavement and genocide. I agree that such outcomes were due to deliberate actions and complicity between leaders and their supporters. The prime example of Nazi Germany and the exploitation and demonisation, first of communists, then the Jewish minority, leading to a political regime that was able to industrialise the extermination of millions with minimal resistance from the general population and active participation by the ruling elite was a horror I would have hoped so unconscionable that it couldn’t happen again. Yet such things continue to happen (albeit, so far on a smaller scale, Cambodia, the Balkans, Myanmar, Chinese Uyghurs).

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  3. newton: New Orleans, Detroit , New York , Atlanta , will remember , next week there will be more, The Republican Governor of Florida is turning away drivers with out of state license plates from entering the state. That will be something to remember.

    Well, what about Spain and Italy? And what about eUSSR and Schengen being a crude joke these days? Why is everyone following Trump’s travel restrictions after first criticizing him? And why is no one apologizing for having been wrong thus having killed so many Europeans?

    newton: Many think it is ok to lose 80, 90, 150,000 or more citizens in order not to inconvenience them , many will remember “ everyone dies” when the same people preach about the sanctity of life .

    Killing the economy is not “inconvenience”. Killing the economy IS killing people. In far greater numbers than the virus itself. Only if you are a fat bastard bureaucrat with an assured living does killing the economy only look like an “inconvenience” to you.

    And make up your mind: either criticize travel restrictions everywhere (not just Florida), or nowhere.

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  4. Just came across (HT/EL) this article by Thomas Pueyo:

    Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

    Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

    Hang in there, folks. The only way to show a lockdown will work is to lockdown.

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  5. Alan Fox:
    Just came across (HT/EL) this article by Thomas Pueyo:

    Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

    Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

    Hang in there, folks. The only way to show a lockdown will work is to lockdown.

    For up to 18 months to be truly effective? 🤔
    By then coV2 will have evolved to COVID-21, no?
    What then?

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  6. J-Mac: For up to 18 months to be truly effective?

    What evidence have you that supports this? We need to contain the outbreak long enough for an effective vaccine to be developed. I’m optimistic this will take less than eighteen months.

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  7. I just came across an article in the Atlantic by Ed Yong:

    How the Pandemic Will End

    In a long, comprehensive article, he mentions among other things that this pandemic did not come out of a clear blue sky. Warnings that the world would be vulnerable to a new pandemic seem to have been routinely ignored by governments everywhere.

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  8. PS and a reliable and widely available test for antibodies would help hugely in monitoring the real extent of covid-19.

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  9. J-Mac: By then coV2 will have evolved to COVID-21, no?

    Less people infected; less opportunity for mutation.

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  10. Alan Fox: What evidence have you that supports this? We need to contain the outbreak long enough for an effective vaccine to be developed. I’m optimistic this will take less than eighteen months.

    On experts in the field and their expertise, like John Ioannidis and many others…
    This a common knowledge, Alan.

    12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/12-experts-questioning-coronavirus-panic/5707532?utm_campaign=magnet&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=related_articles

    Please don’t allow DNA_JOCK to guano or hide this comment!!! 🤗

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  11. Alan Fox: In a long, comprehensive article, he mentions among other things that this pandemic did not come out of a clear blue sky. Warnings that the world would be vulnerable to a new pandemic seem to have been routinely ignored by governments everywhere.

    The dominant ideology is that experts are not to be trusted and governments were slow to act because they knew doing so would slow productivity and decrease profits. What’s a few hundred thousand lives compared to billions of dollars?

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  12. J-Mac: On experts in the field and their expertise, like John Ioannidis

    What does Loannidis bring to the table?

    all that has come from him is maybe we are making the right decisions maybe not. We need more testing he claims so we have sufficient data. Not really a stunning position but other than that he presents no way forward. No suggestions on how to improve testing. No recommendations on how to proceed in light of the data insufficiency. Simply maybe we are doing the right thing maybe not.

    The same criticism applies to all of the ‘experts’ in jmac’s link. No suggestions on how to proceed just maybe what we are doing is right maybe not. Need more testing along with throwing out the ‘we’ll have sooo many suicides’ (proferred with absolutely no evidentiary foundation the very thing they are railing against). Pot calling the kettle black. Not something to hang your hat on as far as good advice.

    do better, jmac.

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  13. Alan Fox:
    I just came across an article in the Atlantic by Ed Yong:

    How the Pandemic Will End

    In a long, comprehensive article, he mentions among other things that this pandemic did not come out of a clear blue sky. Warnings that the world would be vulnerable to a new pandemic seem to have been routinely ignored by governments everywhere.

    How does Spain sit in a healthy 15th place in that list, and still manages to screw up so badly? 🙄

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  14. dazz: How does Spain sit in a healthy 15th place in that list, and still manages to screw up so badly? 🙄

    I’m no expert but I hope there is an explanation in the delay between infection and symptoms appearing. What lockdowns are achieving now will take three weeks to show if the incubation period is 20 days.

    If!

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  15. Kantian Naturalist: What’s a few hundred thousand lives compared to billions of dollars?

    I guess your thinking on that is coloured by if it’s your life or your dollars at risk.

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  16. Alan Fox: I guess your thinking on that is coloured by if it’s your life or your dollars at risk.

    … and whether you’re an asshole or not.

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  17. Nonlin.org: Well, what about Spain and Italy? And what about eUSSR and Schengen being a crude joke these days?

    Local examples are examples ,not an exclusive listing. I agree those will be remembered as well.

    That governments are shitty is not very good argument to defend your local governments actions.

    Why is everyone following Trump’s travel restrictions after first criticizing him?

    Fear. Some of the criticism is while travel restrictions were effective delaying the onset ,it was presented as a solution to the problem. Second in that delay, Trump waste the time the restrictions afforded which lends credibility to the criticism restriction were just a a political gesture, not a strategy.

    And why is no one apologizing for having been wrong thus having killed so many Europeans?

    Not Italian or Spanish, I do know the head of my government not only does not apologize, he contends he is doing a beautiful job and any problems is someone else’s fault, sometimes for not being “nice” enough . The new standard for an excellent grade for his job is only 100,000, to 200,000 deaths. And the important good news is the ratings for his TV appearances are awesomely great.

    My guess he is alone in that level of sociopathic behavior.

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  18. J-Mac,

    By then coV2 will have evolved to COVID-21, no?

    Erm, I think you’ll find that evolution does not happen.

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  19. Neil Rickert:
    Alan Fox,

    I’m pretty sure KN intended that as sarcasm.

    Oh sure. Are folks misreading my reply? “You” was intended as a substitute for the posh Brit. “one”!!!

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  20. Nonlin.org: Killing the economy is not “inconvenience”. Killing the economy IS killing people.

    Suddenly the party which during pandemic is pushing for the reduction or dismantling of the security net of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Affordable Care Act are worried about poor people ? Sure they are, if you ignore the fact some of the risk is the result of their beloved policies.

    In far greater numbers than the virus itself.

    Like to see those numbers as well as the numbers resulting from the conservative agenda.

    Only if you are a fat bastard bureaucrat with an assured living does killing the economy only look like an “inconvenience” to you.

    Don’t forget the caskets makers, they would have boom times. As would all the rich people who now care so much for the guys working paycheck to paycheck.

    Been hearing how strong the economy is. Greatest economy ever. Sounds pretty fragile, if some people, taking some time off is enough to kill it dead.

    Therefore we must act immediately ,say rich Republicans , we must sacrifice the poor unfortunates , medical people, the poor we care about so much , for the common good. For the children.

    If they care so much ,they should quit their cushy jobs , and start volunteering at hospitals. Not seek medical help if they get ill. Donate all their money to charity. Show others what real sacrifice is. That will convince others better than just words. Dan Patrick and Glen Beck should take of the nicely pressed shirts and start helping load the corpses into the refrigerator trucks.

    And make up your mind: either criticize travel restrictions everywhere (not just Florida), or nowhere.

    If the economy is be all, Florida should be welcoming all economic stimulus of tourism to their state. You do think it is overblown , right? No big deal. It is just like the flu, they should open the beaches. Sacrifice a few unfortunates.

    Show the rest how it is done. If not , it is almost like they are hypocrites in that .as well as everything else.

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  21. It’s been pointed out a couple of times today on our steam radio that the WHO advises against travel bans, except in situations where there is substantial case asymmetry across the boundary. Given a relationship with diffusion, this makes some sense.

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  22. newton: That governments are shitty is not very good argument to defend your local governments actions.

    Not my local government. Govt 1 vs govt 2. Little is “local” in this episode.

    newton: Fear. Some of the criticism is while travel restrictions were effective delaying the onset ,it was presented as a solution to the problem. Second in that delay, Trump waste the time the restrictions afforded which lends credibility to the criticism restriction were just a a political gesture, not a strategy.

    False. Italy and eUSSR in general are faring much worse. There’s a reason for that. USA is in much better shape as of today. Why would you deny this simple truth? And when commie NY, CA, WA, etc. are factored out, it’s doing even better. Communism is deadly this time around as always before.

    newton: The new standard for an excellent grade for his job is only 100,000, to 200,000 deaths.

    This hasn’t happened. Let’s discuss facts, not fantasy. And facts are awful for your preferred approach to solving. Which entails what exactly?

    newton: Suddenly the party which during pandemic is pushing for the reduction or dismantling of the security net of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Affordable Care Act are worried about poor people ?

    Cut the bullshit, will you? Are you on SNAP or Unaffordable Crapola? Or do you just feel like a benevolent slave master?

    newton: As would all the rich people who now care so much for the guys working paycheck to paycheck.

    Last I checked, most rich people are socialists – and by a 2 to 1 margin this election cycle alone. Not counting the fat bastard bureaucrats getting fat on the public dime. The jig is up and the plebes might just rise up.

    newton: Been hearing how strong the economy is. Greatest economy ever. Sounds pretty fragile, if some people, taking some time off is enough to kill it dead.

    This is nuts: “some people, taking some time off”. The economy is being strangled.

    newton: No big deal. It is just like the flu, they should open the beaches.

    You do that when you’re in charge, sport. Meanwhile, it’s nuts to criticize only Florida (why Florida anyway?) for doing exactly as everyone else.

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  23. Nonlin.org: Meanwhile, it’s nuts to criticize only Florida (why Florida anyway?) for doing exactly as everyone else.

    But Florida, different from everybody else, was supposed to be not Communist! So why does it behave Communist like all other governments?

    It is really sad how in USA this word has been made meaningless. Instead of Communist, use words that you know something about.

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  24. Erik: Instead of Communist, use words that you know something about.

    That might be a bit restrictive for non-lin!

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  25. The vicious stabbing of an Asian-American family, including a 2-year-old girl, at a Sam’s Club in Texas earlier this month has been deemed a hate crime by the feds, as authorities continue to raise alarm bells about a potential surge in racially motivated crimes amid the coronavirus outbreak.

    Jose L. Gomez, 19, confessed to authorities that he attempted to murder three Asian-American family members, including the toddler and a 6-year-old, on March 14 at the Midland, Texas store, according to the Midland Police Department.

    Real people Alan. Real People Mung. Real consequences of stirring up hate. Hate monger president and hate mongers followers. Nothing funny or cute about it. I didn’t overreact.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/stabbing-asian-american-2-old-190324496.html

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  26. Doctor suspended for wearing mask.

    In the days that followed, Nikicicz said, he was told that his job was at risk because policy at the hospital where he works, University Medical Center in El Paso, prohibited the use of protective masks in the hallways.

    “Wearing that mask is essential for me,” Nikicicz, 60, who has asthma and hypertension, said in an interview.

    After he refused to back down, Nikicicz was removed from the schedule, effectively suspending him from work without pay.

    Doctor fired for airing concerns.

    An emergency room doctor, Dr. Ming Lin, wrote on Facebook that he was fired Friday from his job at PeaceHealth St. Joseph Medical Center in Bellingham, Washington, after making public his concerns about insufficient protections and testing at the hospital.

    The hospital said it had no comment about Lin’s dismissal.

    Nurses, doctors afraid to speak to media

    PeaceHealth’s
    Nurses, Doctors Say They’re Afraid of Retaliation If They Speak to the Media

    Northwest chief executive, Charles Prosper, declined to comment on the doctor’s situation, citing personnel policy. Dr. Worth Everett, the medical director of PeaceHealth St. Joseph’s ED, said that the claims about the lack of personal protective equipment were “misleading inaccuracies.”

    “I’m hearing widespread stories from physicians across the country and they are all saying: ‘We have these stories that we think are important to get out, but we are being told by our hospital systems that we are not allowed to speak to the press, and if we do so there will be extreme consequences,’” Nisha Mehta, a radiologist who runs two Facebook groups for physicians, told Bloomberg.

    A spokesperson for the Washington State Nurses Association, a union that represents 900 nurses at Bellingham’s PeaceHealth St. Joseph’s Medical Center, also said the group was “strongly advising” its members “not to speak to the media because of the real fear that they could be disciplined or fired for doing so.”

    The orange infant will find someone else to blame.

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  27. phoodoo: Real consequences of stirring up hate.

    Fortunately, there’s not too much of that around here (Chicago suburbs). Unfortunately, Texas is one of the places where I would expect it.

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  28. Nothing to fear but fear itself … on my run last night I encountered a couple on the dry canal near home. The towpath is not wide enough to permit more than a 3ft berth between passers-by. The older gentleman said hello, but the much younger lady had something pressed tightly to her face and scurried fearfully by. I expect she had medical concerns, or maybe was ill and protecting me. But, in our tiny village in a rural area with no cases I’m aware of, it seemed a bit OTT.

    Of course one could adopt a ‘can’t be too careful’ strategy. We need to guard against complacency. But I do feel people are over-rating the transmissibility of this virus. I am not aware of any evidence that simply passing in the street can transfer an infective load – even if one had the misfortune to breathe in just after the other breathed out. I am prepared to be corrected on that.

    The other over-rated route is surface contact. People are justifying countryside closure, and the demise of entire industries, because they can construct lurid scenarios where A coughs, puts their hand on a gatepost, B touches it and then … I dunno, crams their fingers in their mouths or something. It seems unlikely, and CDC and WHO confirm. Virus survival is not indefinite, and at each stage there is dilution. Infection depends on load.

    Surface contamination matters in hospitals, where droplets and aerosols (enhanced by nebulisers) rain down continually, generating higher concentrations than our coughing gate opener. The disease is serious. But I do wonder if we are over-reacting a bit.

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  29. Allan Miller: But I do wonder if we are over-reacting a bit.

    I’m wondering why we aren’t seeing encouraging results from the lockdown. Many people don’t have the resources to live like this indefinitely.

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  30. Alan Fox: I’m wondering why we aren’t seeing encouraging results from the lockdown. Many people don’t have the resources to live like this indefinitely.

    I am inclined to think that the best thing at this time of year is for people to get out, not stay cooped up rebreathing the same air and avoiding sunlight/exercise. If lockdown could be total – no interpersonal contact at all – the disease would be gone in weeks. But that’s not practical. As soon as you have a level of home-to-home leakage, forcing people inside ensures the entire home gets it.

    (eta – also: hospitals)

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  31. Allan Miller,
    I used to joke that hospital is no place for sick people. 😕

    Testing becoming more widely available, both for infection and antibodies, would help to indicate the real extent. Random sampling might show whether asymptomatic carriers are real and significant.

    But how long an almost complete cessation of economic activity can be maintained is worrying me as much as the spread of the disease.

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  32. Alan Fox:
    Allan Miller,
    I used to joke that hospital is no place for sick people.

    […]

    But how long an almost complete cessation of economic activity can be maintained is worrying me as much as the spread of the disease.

    Indeed. Those 2 things that have me waking in the wee small hours: the pressure on my kids in the frontline and the impact on them of a prolonged economic depression.

    I think mental health will become a growing issue. Our ‘stay at home’ message is being reinforced with the emotional blackmail tagline ‘Protect the NHS’. As if by going for a second run in deserted fields I am somehow displaying brutal disregard for my daughters … 🙄 But the NHS will have to deal with the increase in spousal abuse, alcoholism, suicide, obesity, etc (in general, I mean, not from me! 😃) – and, as my eldest says, the societal measures affect as well as notionally ‘protect’ her. Frontline staff are a significant suicide risk.

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  33. OK, on the bright side, Italy and Spain seem to be continuing the trend of moving off the exponential curve, and air pollution (a factor in both mortality and severity) is on a downward trend. Alongside Spring itself, these must have a positive impact – I just wish we were encouraging people to get out, not stay in. Apartment blocks seem as bad as cruise ships, to my armchair-expert eye.

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  34. Alan Fox:
    Allan Miller,
    Really appreciating your efforts at cheering me up!

    Sorry to pile on the gloom, but they’ve cancelled April Fool’s Day this year, in view of the present crisis. ☹

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  35. Allan Miller: Apartment blocks seem as bad as cruise ships…

    Apartment blocks are at their worst at sea. The thought that sea cruises on huge floating disease incubators may become a thing of the past does cheer me up!

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  36. Allan Miller: Italy and Spain seem to be continuing the trend of moving off the exponential curve…

    Hope this becomes a clear trend. I keep looking at Worldometer but it seems too noisy to me to be confident. Maybe I’m not interpreting the data correctly.

    …and air pollution (a factor in both mortality and severity) is on a downward trend.

    A strong indicator that a concerted effort at reducing pollution could work.

    Alongside Spring itself, these must have a positive impact – I just wish we were encouraging people to get out, not stay in

    Except when they all arrive together at one spot. As Mrs F keeps reminding me, we are a lot better placed than most to survive a lockdown. Our broad beans are only a few days from being ready to eat and barter with. What about allowing people in cities to plant up parks and open spaces with edible greens? Too naïve?

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  37. Alan Fox: Hope this becomes a clear trend. I keep looking at Worldometer but it seems too noisy to me to be confident. Maybe I’m not interpreting the data correctly.

    My go-to stats are the country-level histograms. The rising graphs aren’t much use – they will never go down, just change slope. But best would be a moving-average trend.

    Except when they all arrive together at one spot.

    Yes, although I find myself on the opposite side on that debate from most of my local compatriots. I live close to one of the highly-publicised pressure spots. As long as people practice distancing then come one, come all. Wash hands, don’t touch face. As I discuss above, the ‘transfer by gatepost’ idea is based more upon supposition than science. The ‘Derbyshire Armed Response Unit’ tweeted, rather menacingly, that they’d had ‘friendly’ conversations with people from as far afield as Manchester and Sheffield and sent them packing. Like, from 10 miles down the road. So they sent them back to cross-infect in their households instead, because of a (IMO) mistaken view of the likelihood of asymptomatic transmission by gatepost, and a failure to consider the offsetting benefits of reduced viral load by time spent outside. Open air is good for health, bad for transmission.

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  38. Alan Fox:
    phoodoo,
    USAmerica today. A lot more needs fixing than just not using a word.

    That’s a lame excuse Alan. My friend was knocked down in England. Hatred spreads. Your cavalier attitude about it is one reason it spreads. You think its just words. But those words turn into actions by people who need an excuse to blame someone. Its how church shootings happen. Its how terrorists actions happen. It all starts off with words first.

    Let’s hope the parents of the 2 and 6 years old don’t read this site, and have to read you saying, “Well, what’s the big deal, there was racism before this. Its only words…”

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  39. Allan Miller,

    I have a slight suspicion that the virus is becoming less fatal over time. You hear about all these leaders and celebrities getting it, but none of them seem to need to go to the ICU. But early on it seems large numbers of people did.

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  40. Alan Fox,

    I wonder why you have a problem with making insults at Jews here, if it is only just words. Maybe we can start a Jewish stereotype joke thread here, just for fun, during the lockdown. Since its just words.

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  41. Allan Miller,

    No, you don’t believe that. Being less fatal isn’t making it more easy to spread. In fact being more fatal would probably spread it more, because more people would be forced to go to the hospital and be around more people.

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  42. phoodoo:
    Allan Miller,
    No, you don’t believe that.

    I think it’s plausible. Myxomatosis in rabbits was initially highly fatal, but killing your host reduces your survival, selecting for less virulent strains which continue to circulate.

    There are plenty of other factors – air quality is one, demographics another, hospital ICU capacity a third – but clearly if the virus changes genetically, it’s not always going to have zero effect on the spread of the different variants circulating, as you’d apparently prefer to believe.

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  43. phoodoo: I have a slight suspicion that the virus is becoming less fatal over time.

    An increased testing rate is a sufficient explanation for this effect.
    However, Allan is correct: the virus would “do better” if it killed fewer people and was asymptomatic for longer.
    In the infectious diseases biz, we used to joke that HIV was quite the most amazing virus ever; it’s one “mistake” was killing people.

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