Lockdown!

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Share your experience, tips, advice, questions…

As it seems most communities world-wide are going into voluntary or enforced quarantine that involves staying at home and avoiding physical contact as much as possible, I thought we could have a thread where we could try a bit of mutual support by cheering each other up over the next few days, weeks, months… Who knows?

I don’t know: suggestions on films to watch, books to read, gardening tips, exercise ideas

Usual rules apply plus a guideline. Let’s be kind and supportive to each other.

932 thoughts on “Lockdown!”

  2. Alan Fox,

    Nothing for cancer, heart disease, dementia, stroke etc though. The small print says it’s a front runner among the 7% of causes in a normal year accounted for by the chosen stats.

  4. Alan Fox:
    Hat tip to Ed George at Common Descent for this visualisation:

    Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 in 2020

    Malaria kills otherwise healthy children. Average CV death is 81.

    And lost in the news cycle is a breakthrough that could eliminate malaria. A bacterium that prevents mosquitoes from becoming infected.

    And if COVID doesn’t extinguish itself, there are manufactured antibodies nearing production.

  9. petrushka: Malaria kills otherwise healthy children. Average CV death is 81.

    And lost in the news cycle is a breakthrough that couldeliminate malaria. A bacterium that prevents mosquitoes from becoming infected.

    And if COVID doesn’t extinguish itself, there are manufactured antibodies nearing production.

    If not, I hear putting large numbers of people people in enclosed space cheering for Trump will be used to manufacture antibodies the old fashioned way. The are some reported side effects, but it is just like a bad case of flu.

  15. Allan Miller,

    Well, I can’t speak for what things were like in the UK, though I was just talking on the phone to someone “shielded” in the North-East of UK (Hartlepool) and she thinks enough people there ignored the rules to prevent them being as effective as they might have been.

    Plus Newton’s point is fair. Erring on the over-reaction side because so little was known about the new virus seems reasonable.

  17. newton: Saying it and knowing it are often two different things, not in your case ,of course.

    For instance this little gem:

    “Those registering for President Donald Trump’s massive rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, next week will notice a message on his campaign website when they sign up: You may contract COVID-19 at the rally, but it’s not Trump’s fault.

    The legal disclaimer is the closest Trump has come in weeks to acknowledging that the coronavirus is still rapidly spreading across much of the country. The number of cases leapt past 2 million this week while outbreaks grow in 21 states and more than a dozen see record surges.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-legal-disclaimer-coronavirus-rally_n_5ee2bbb6c5b665ef930b06e9

  18. Outbreaks defined how? Do you have some magic way of distinguishing increases in actual cases from the increased numbers recorded by increased testing?

    New US case rates recorded by worldometers have been steadily declining if you look at the seven day rolling average. Despite increases in testing.

    Deaths have been declining at a more rapid rate.

    Neither of these trends have changed in the last two weeks.

  19. California has had 35% as many cases as New York, but only one-sixth the number of deaths.

    Texas had 1/5 the NY cases and 1/15 the deaths.

    The differences in death rates per patient are interesting, because most US deaths have been in states that have high death rates per patient.

    Without promoting any theory, I would observe that there has been a huge financial incentive to classify deaths as CV.

    It’s possible to speculate that that the rapid decline In US death rates reflects changes in classification. Or, it might be that the states that were hardest hit are approaching herd immunity.

  20. newton: Saying it and knowing it are often two different things, not in your case ,of course.

    I don’t claim knowledge! But just arguing from basic principles, given this high-molecular-weight virus from a known group, it seemed probable that outdoor transmission was much less likely than inside, 2m distance should be plenty, an immune response of some kind was highly likely …

    People favouring extreme lockdown seemed to be taking a parallel stance of certitude. There was an outbreak of hysteria, a widespread belief that brief proximity, measured in milliseconds, was more than enough for it to be brought into a community, and surface transmission of equal importance to person-person all based on nothing empirical, both in regard to this virus and the general principle of lockdown, a largely untried strategy. An attitude of ‘you never know’ turned into an emphatic “this is what you must do”. Staying home saves lives of itself, was the message, even though there are many health trade-offs. Intuition and ‘common sense’ aren’t always the best guides, which is why we need science – but that in itself has become distorted. Our politicians say daily ‘we are following the science’ (a curious use of the definite article) when ‘the science’ hasn’t really changed in basic principle. Keep away from folks, you’ll be fine. Generally.

    Most of it is about behaviour management, not transmission itself.

  21. Alan Fox:
    Allan Miller,

    Plus Newton’s point is fair. Erring on the over-reaction side because so little was known about the new virus seems reasonable.

    My point is fair also! Little is known about lockdown and its long-term effects.

  22. Alan Fox:
    Allan Miller,

    Well, I can’t speak for what things were like in the UK, though I was just talking on the phone to someone “shielded” in the North-East of UK (Hartlepool) and she thinks enough people there ignored the rules to prevent them being as effective as they might have been.

    I have a friend who is shielding in his village, nearby – 75, ex fellrunner but high blood pressure so fearful. He has a similar view. His Facebook is brimful of angry swipes at the common herd for this and that. But he never leaves the house; how would he know? It all comes via the media, social and otherwise; distorted by amplification. I’ve been wandering fairly freely over the district (within the rules!) and am simply not seeing the widespread flouting that is so exercising the ‘shielded’. He’s also basing things on what seems to be an over-cautious model of viral spread (admittedly, it could be me that’s wrong).

    I think his mental and physical health would benefit greatly from a re-appraisal of risk, and a re-connection with the outdoors that he loves. Though I’d hate my advice to cause his demise, naturally!

  23. Allan Miller,

    I totally agree that outdoors is the safest place to be and I remain unconvinced that transmission by surface contact is at all significant.

    My pet theory was lockdown effectively only for the shortest necessary period, not ineffectively for months.

  24. Allan Miller: My point is fair also! Little is known about lockdown and its long-term effects.

    Your point is very fair, the lockdown was a blunt instrument to reduce the rate of infection in order to avoid an overload of the health care facilities and personnel.

    It appears Arizona ,in this relaxed phase ,is looking at a growing shortages of ICU beds if the spike continues. The crisis in Yemen is heartbreaking.

  25. It appears that wearing the bloody mask is the most important mitigating factor.

    And petrushka, the recent stats (national decline, but spiking in TX, AZ, etc) are very simply explained: people in hard hit areas (the NorthEast, Chicago, etc) are taking social distancing and mask wearing seriously. This works to bring Re down.

    I worry for red America, where wearing a mask is viewed as a political statement.

  26. DNA_Jock: I worry for red America, where wearing a mask is viewed as a political statement.

    Guns are all the protection anyone needs.

  28. Alan Fox,

    At this point it feels like Trump is openly daring the international community to put him on trial for crimes against humanity. If he wins re-election he will almost certainly try to withdraw the US from the UN and from NATO.

  29. Kantian Naturalist:
    Alan Fox,

    At this point it feels like Trump is openly daring the international community to put him on trial for crimes against humanity. If he wins re-election he will almost certainly try to withdraw the US from the UN and from NATO.

    Fingers crossed for November.

  30. Alan Fox,

    I see some compulsory licenses on the horizon. Given Trump’s history of stiffing contractors, this might end up costing Gilead dearly…
    Unfortunately, making remdesivir is a lot more difficult than making, say, Tecfidera.

    My concern about Red America does not seem to have been misplaced, sadly.

  31. DNA_Jock: Unfortunately, making remdesivir is a lot more difficult than making, say, Tecfidera.

    My mother had severe psoriasis so I am familiar with fumarate (I should have paid more attention to the citric acid cycle when I had the chance). Is it a candidate for Covid-19 treatment?

  33. dimethyl fumarate might help with the cytokine storm. I have no idea. I referenced it as being a drug I could easily synthesize in my kitchen; if I were going to go all “Breaking Bad”, that‘s the drug I would make…

  34. DNA_Jock,

    dimethyl fumarate might help with the cytokine storm. I have no idea. I referenced it as being a drug I could easily synthesize in my kitchen; if I were going to go all “Breaking Bad”, that‘s the drug I would make…

    The pathway appears to be the NFkB which is transcribing cytokines. Anything that down regulates this should help. Adequate vitamin d blood levels appear to be helping keep this in proper regulation.

  35. petrushka: New US case rates recorded by worldometers have been steadily declining if you look at the seven day rolling average. Despite increases in testing.

    Middle of June . Them were the good old days.

  37. Interesting data here. As a stats ghoul (as we all are!), I’ve been keeping an eye on the consolidated World figures, looking for trends over and above naive country comparisons (confounded as they are by systematic differences in various parameters). 3 weeks ago, there was a directional change. I kept my eye on it, looking for a lagging change in deaths, which is now starting to appear, suggesting it’s not artefactual.

    So, what is it? It’s too early to be seasonal, too soon to be vaccine. My guess is that it might be the beginnings of herd immunity in the most populous and worst-hit areas. But I’m not immovable on that, if anyone has a better idea.

  38. It’s an anniversary of sorts, a whole year since lock-down schemes around the world came into force to curb the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and mitigate its effects.

    A year on, are we seeing light at the end of the tunnel?

    The answer seems to be the curate’s response to how is his boiled egg.

  40. Allan Miller,

    My theory is that the virus is mutating itself into oblivion. Evolution in reverse.

    I also predict if this is the case, evolutionists will still claim it is not a problem for their theory-it can accommodate anything.

  41. phoodoo: My theory is that the virus is mutating itself into oblivion. Evolution in reverse.

    You are mistaken that evolution is a path to somewhere. You’ve forgotten about the niche again, phoodoo. For the SARS-CoV-2 virus currently it’s humans. Killing humans kill the virus. It’s inevitable that less virulent forms prevail because their human hosts don’t die allowing the virus to infect more human hosts. Your theory is evolution.

  44. phoodoo: My theory is that the virus is mutating itself into oblivion. Evolution in reverse.

    In phoodoo’s defense [checks own body temperature], colewd had a similar thought back in May. Allan, dazz and I pointed out that this didn’t fit the data, even back then. Plenty more sequencing data since then.
    I am sure that there are variants that have mutated RdRP, such that they do mutate themselves into oblivion, same as with HCV, for instance. But we don’t notice those variants, coz, errr, evolution. We do know, due to the continued presence of HCV, SARS-CoV-2 etc, that such RdRP variants are not common enough to produce “death by genetic entropy”.

  45. Over a year on and where are we? I’m still in a sort of lockdown where I am. Needed to pay cheques in at my bank in the local town and took a couple of pics while walking between bank and car. What is missing in this picture?

  46. Alan Fox,

    We’re on the verge of a reopen here. Schools are back, we’re ‘allowed’ a little more mixing, and hospitality opens for outdoors on the 12th.

    Easter weekend was unprecedentedly quiet here in the Lakes. People were allowed up, but no accommodation or pubs open so hardly anyone bothered. I would normally steer clear on Bank Holidays. It will all change for the next one – no-one can go abroad, so pressure on holiday areas like ours will increase.

  47. Alan Fox: What is missing in this picture?

    One months worth of a responsible government effort? Ask Taiwan. Ask China. Ask Singapore. Ask Korea. Ask New Zealand.

  48. phoodoo: One months worth of a responsible government effort?

    You are right that the EU and French government (Ursula Von Der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron in particular) are not covering themselves in glory. And I have no reluctance in saying so.

  50. phoodoo: One months worth of a responsible government effort?Ask Taiwan.Ask China.Ask Singapore.Ask Korea.Ask New Zealand.

    Way too simplistic. All bar NZ massively helped by having nearest neighbours also suppressing hard. NZ massively helped by being in the middle of nowhere. I see this tosh a lot from people with a political axe to grind – as if geography is a complete irrelevance.

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