Coronavirus: Evolution vs ID

Another deadly virus is just around the corner: coronavirus, as predicted by evolution…

Since it was predicted, what had been done to prevent it?

We have all sorts of experts visiting TSZ, such as immunologists, population geneticists, biochemists, and the like…

What have they done in this field?  How about ID?

What are you doing personally to protect yourself, and your family,  from another possible epidemic?

I have lived through SARS, wearing full protective gear for many days. My wife was doing initial screening at the hospital entrance, while few months pregnant…

Is same, or worse, yet to come?

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255 thoughts on “Coronavirus: Evolution vs ID

  1. newton: Didn’t work for Donald, he is not even the best golfer in the world though he does cheat his way to club championships.

    Maybe the “best golfer” is more important to you than POTUS. To you and your other 0.000…1 percenters. Is cheating at golf a capital offense to your ilk?

    OMagain: Have you ever left the USA?

    Yep. Writing from the good old EUSSR as we speak. Don’t you know me by know? Only thoroughly validated sources of knowledge are good enough.

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  2. Nonlin.org: Is cheating at golf a capital offense to your ilk?

    It is merely a indication of the type of man. If he is willing to cheat publically, what is he willing to do in private?

    It says much about you that you are happy to have a leader like that.

    Nonlin.org: Yep. Writing from the good old EUSSR as we speak.

    Enjoy your free hospital bed when you get infected with corona. Unlike the vast majority of your USA residents who will die on their feet at work.

    Your president cheats at golf and also lies:

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1235411751950221312

    1. Denies WHO’s coronavirus death rate based on “hunch”
    2. Calls coronavirus “corona flu”
    3. Suggests it’s fine for people w/ Covid-19 to go to work
    4. Compares coronavirus to “the regular flu,” indicating he doesn’t get the difference

    And this from your leader. Reap the whirlwind indeed.

    “I think the 3.4 percent number is really a false number,” Trump told Hannity. “Now, this is just my hunch but based on a lot of conversations … personally, I’d say the number is way under 1 percent.”

    of 158 people with the virus in the USA , 11 people have died. That’s a 6.96 percent fatality rate.

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  3. The use of lame puns – EUSSR, ‘Banana’, etc, is very characteristic of the feeble-minded level of the ‘debate’ we have been suffering from over the last few years. People say ‘EUSSR’ or ‘Fourth Reich’ (I know, go figure), or ‘Tony Bliar’, ‘Comrade Corbyn’ or the ‘Liebour’ party, and consider they have made a stunning political point. By echoing a chant.

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  4. There is no money in natural prevention…
    It is a well established fact that autophogy can lead to such processes, like rebuilding of the immune system by cells digesting old and dysfunctional proteins, pathogen clearance etc…

    Would the food industry and big Pharma allow the governments to endorse such an idea? 🤔

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  5. CV seems to have split into two variants. Being called type S and type L.

    The good news from the cruise ship is it’s only lethal to the the elderly and people who are immune compromised. And the mortality rates are in the ballpark for flu. Also the transmission rates. The cruise ship has provided an involuntary captive test population.

    Despite the close quarters on the ship, and the common ventilation system, only one person in five is infected, and only one in ten are sick. So the ordinary hand washing protocols work. It’s not insanely infectious. Unfortunately. The more serious version is becoming the more prevalent.

    Not something we ordered, but something we are going to have to deal with, like flu.

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  6. It looks to me like the reason these diseases spread is that humans just can’t stop putting their hands in their mouth.

    There’s a video of a woman reading a list of precautions, including hand washing and avoiding touching your mouth. Then she licks her finger to turn the page. It’s an example of how difficult it is to break the habit.

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  7. petrushka,

    The US would never be able to implement all of the precautions that are taking place here in China. I was thinking about the number of digital thermometers that have been acquired here. You can not go into ANY establishment, store, company, parking lot, housing complex, village, gas station, highway, without first getting your temperature taken. That is tens of million of little battery operated thermometers. On average I am probably checked between 10 and 20 times per day.

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  8. phoodoo,

    He apparently inherited around 250 million, was given the rights to Atlantic casinos and blew that, then proceeded to go bankrupt multiple times, and then when he became President was worth probably less than what he inherited. That of course doesn’t include all of the money he didn’t pay back from the bankruptcies, which if it did, would put him in the homeless category of wealth.

    This is fake news. :-). He started well before his dad died. His first project was in New York where when around 30 raised 100 million of outside capital to fix up what is now the Grand Hyatt. He also negotiated 40 years of deferred taxes from the city. He built 2 casinos that were very successful in Atlantic City prior to the Taj Mahal which is where he got into financial trouble. Since then his businesses have been quite successful with a few minor exceptions. This guy has a lot of weird attributes but to underestimate his ability is a mistake.

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  9. phoodoo:
    petrushka,

    The US would never be able to implement all of the precautions that are taking place here in China.I was thinking about the number of digital thermometers that have been acquired here.You can not go into ANY establishment, store, company, parking lot, housing complex, village, gas station, highway, without first getting your temperature taken. That is tens of million of little battery operated thermometers.On average I am probably checked between 10 and 20 times per day.

    Lot of nothing, considering that half the infected people never show any symptoms at all.

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  10. Alan Fox: I blame the French.

    Okay, but my point is Afghanistan is not going to become a western country on our terms. We do not need to be there, nor do we need to be in the middle east.

    The future of hegemony is economic rather than military. I’m not particularly naive about how nations work, but I’d rather have nations behaving like corporations than like ants. It’s a personal preference.

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  11. Regarding the virus in the United States. I don’t know how much faith to put in such proclamations, but the official word is that there has been no stranger to stranger transmission in the US. Every known case has either come from abroad, or to someone who has been in close contact with someone who arrived infected.

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  12. petrushka: Lot of nothing, considering that half the infected people never show any symptoms at all.

    Problem is if they can inflect the population at risk.

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  13. petrushka: Okay, but my point is Afghanistan is not going to become a western country on our terms.

    Well, sure. Colonialism as perhaps industrialised by the Romans, perfected by the British and practised by fast learners like the US has usually been bad news for people whose countries/homes/livelihoods are targeted.

    We do not need to be there, nor do we need to be in the middle east.

    The only interventions I can think of in recent years that seemed to have some benefit was the NATO bombings of 1995 and 1999

    The future of hegemony is economic rather than military. I’m not particularly naive about how nations work, but I’d rather have nations behaving like corporations than like ants. It’s a personal preference.

    Not sure what distinction you are making. Myself, I prefer stability to chaos.

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  14. newton: Problem is if they can inflect the population at risk.

    Well maybe. The current thinking is that it only spreads to people in close, continuous contact, like family. That’s what China is saying. It can obviously be spread by food preparers. Italy is saying all their cases can be traced to one restaurant worker who ignored quarantine.

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  15. colewd: He also negotiated 40 years of deferred taxes from the city.

    Illegally you mean?

    As Newton said, there is more to the story that is not good.

    You are also claiming his other business do well. That is a bit hard to determine. In fact, before he became President, we know that he had lots of debt, refused to pay many of his contractors, was involved in many court actions, and was obtaining money from dubious sources because no one legitimate would loan him money. He has profited quite a bit during his Presidency, but what businesses are you claiming were doing well before he took office (besides the 5 others that went bankrupt)?

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  16. phoodoo: Illegally you mean?

    As Newton said, there is more to the story that is not good.

    You are also claiming his other business do well.That is a bit hard to determine.In fact, before he became President, we know that he had lots of debt, refused to pay many of his contractors, was involved in many court actions, and was obtaining money from dubious sources because no one legitimate would loan him money.He has profited quite a bit during his Presidency, but what businesses are you claiming were doing well before he took office (besides the 5 others that went bankrupt)?

    As I understand it, after his first failed venture using his own money, he learned never to gamble except with other peoples’ money. So it was his lenders who lost everything in his bankruptcies, not him. In fact, he paid himself handsome management fees to lose others their money, which he got to keep. The Trump Organization, as a business, has done quite well by paying themselves fees, licensing their name, and structuring businesses so they keep profits while others suffer losses. Perhaps most of it is illegal, which may explain why the DOJ recently transferred all those cases from SDNY to EDNY, a division headed by a Trump toady. Power and money work the same way everywhere.

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  17. Flint,

    I have been thinking more about Bill Gates. He enjoys the status of being this super-philanthropist, this selfless guy who just wants to help the world, and needs almost nothing for himself, but just wants to give money to poor people. That is the reputation he has cultivated for a long, long time.

    But frankly, if you are the richest man on the entire planet, and you have basically been that person, for 20 plus years or so, giving away 5% of your wealth, I am sorry, but that is not really my idea of selflessness. Its just that he is so extremely, extremely wealthy, that the numbers make it seem like he is so generous. He has enjoyed the benefits of living in a capitalist society that allows a guy, who let’s face it, hasn’t exactly changed the world with any great technology, to just become this giant bloated mass of ridiculous wealth, for what is a very small contribution to the world. But he has sure milked the, I am an altruist, motto for all its worth.

    So I still say, even more, Ok Bill when are you going to cough up more than 5%. How much taxes has the guy even paid? I think he is very clever. Just recently he has started to say that he should pay more taxes. But is that how he really feels or is this more of his PR strategy? Because he knows that there is rising discontent. He knows that he looks bad by complaining about taxes, so he throws it out there that he should pay a little more. I am pretty sure he is actually a Trump supporter. Why? Not because of taxes? He and his wife have even said that its not fair that they have so much wealth. And that they don’t want to give it all to their children. I don’t believe them anymore. He has pledged to ONE DAY give away half his wealth. One day. Not today, not tomorrow, next week, well, I am a little busy with retirement and all, and well next month I am going skiing, and then, well, look one day. Half. And then the other half? The other 50 billion, what’s the plan for that? Its not going to your kids you claim. Where is the other 50 billion plus interest going to go? You are going to spend it?

    Its is sort of a warped state of affairs, where people can get so obscenely wealthy, that by doing anything at all, they get to put a badge on their chest and say, Look at me, aren’t I a saint? I have given away billions of dollars. And I wrote some computer programs, that aren’t that spectacular. And I have given away billions. So please, don’t complain about the other 100 billion, deal? I think he is just media shrewd. The name of his charity, after all, isn’t help the poor. Its the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation. I wonder how he thought of the name? Must have took a while.

    Numbers have become too skewed to make sense.

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  18. petrushka: It can obviously be spread by food preparers. Italy is saying all their cases can be traced to one restaurant worker who ignored quarantine.

    Given that all it takes is 1, it seems only a matter of time. Not that I advocate undue concern, you’re many times more likely to die of something else on any given day.

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  19. Allan Miller: Given that all it takes is 1, it seems only a matter of time. Not that I advocate undue concern, you’re many times more likely to die of something else on any given day.

    It seems impossible, but when testing ramps up, it can be contained. Our beloved CDC botched the test kits. New ones have been promised any day now. It’s a tribute to field workers that they have been able to keep a lid on with just a few hundred kits.

    Between CDC and FDA we have a bureaucratic nightmare. I don’t know the reason, but it goes back a long ways. We are, in some ways, as opaque as China. Certainly in terms of decision making at high levels.

    Which is why it is good that we have health departments at state, county, and city levels, so some work gets done, and people don’t get arrested for reporting bad news.

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  20. The system to track infections and contacts was developed decades ago to deal with STDs. It really ramped up with the AIDS crisis. It’s just a bunch of people slogging through tedious and embarrassing interviews, then following the network of contacts. It works. It’s how ebola is managed. It will work better when contacts can be tested.

    I have no idea how this will turn out, but I’m 75, so I hope the spread can be slowed until a vaccine is available.

    I note that flu shots are available, and yet flu kills tens of thousands of people every year. It’s just barely possible that flu transmission will be reduced due to all the tracking being done for CV. And the education.

    I was in the grocery the other day, and they had a PSA playing over the intercom discussing precautions. The same precautions apply to all respiratory infections.

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  21. The hot topic right now seems to be:
    Were viruses designed?
    Was COVID-19 designed?
    Or, my personal favorite: What is the origin of viruses? 😉

    Are viruses irreducibly complex? Or, more precisely: are viruses the part of the chicken and egg paradoxes so popular in the evolutionary theory today? 😉

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  22. Alan Fox:
    dazz,

    OT @ Dazz
    How are you managing under lock down?

    I stocked up for a couple of weeks last Friday. But I’m extremely worried about the whole situation. Looks like this is going to last quite a while.
    How about you? Hope you’re doing fine, Alan (and everyone else too)

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  23. dazz,

    I’m currently in France, having decided to carry on with a ski trip. An hour before arrival Macron decided to close all ‘non essential’ outlets, de facto closing down skiing for the season (though we did manage a day, thanks to the French’s ornery streak!). Now he’s supposedly ‘closed EU borders’ from midday tomorrow, announced at 8pm tonight which gives no time for anyone still here to get home before that deadline. The upshot is that several thousand ski-toting refugees will fetch up in his capital city tomorrow trying to catch Eurostar, social distancing be damned. I’ll be interested to see what entertainment the French government has laid on for us over the next month.

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  24. Allan Miller,

    I was more fortunate. I decided to delay my ski trip by one day and the rest is history…😊
    Now, I gotta find some ways to entertain 2 teens bored to death for who knows how long…

    I made my oldest to cook dinner today…chicken parmesan…delicioso😁

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  25. dazz: I stocked up for a couple of weeks last Friday.

    Well done! Mrs F was away for three weeks and I was distracted. Shopping tomorrow.

    But I’m extremely worried about the whole situation.

    I find myself a bit fatalistic – all beyond my control.

    Looks like this is going to last quite a while.

    I hope you are wrong but I suspect you are right!

    How about you? Hope you’re doing fine, Alan (and everyone else too)

    M Macron has just lectured us on our wayward behaviour and locked the country down for 15 days. What happens after 15 days is up for speculation…

    My daughter splits her time between the Alps and Portugal. She’s expecting to be laid off from her winter work and she has no idea if she will have clients in Portugal this summer. Luckily we have three bedrooms to self-isolate in.

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  26. Allan Miller:
    dazz,

    I’m currently in France, having decided to carry on with a ski trip. An hour before arrival Macron decided to close all ‘non essential’ outlets, de facto closing down skiing for the season (though we did manage a day, thanks to the French’s ornery streak!).

    Oh dear! I was going to warn you about that.

    Now he’s supposedly ‘closed EU borders’ from midday tomorrow, announced at 8pm tonight which gives no time for anyone still here to get home before that deadline. The upshot is that several thousand ski-toting refugees will fetch up in his capital city tomorrow trying to catch Eurostar, social distancing be damned. I’ll be interested to see what entertainment the French government has laid on for us over the next month.

    It’s two weeks of staying at home except for work if it can’t be done at home, shopping and medical needs. All places of entertainment, eating etc are closed down so there’s no reason to go out anyway!

    Anyway, don’t blame Manu; he’s doing his best. It’s like a test for top politicians, who can come out of this looking better than they went in?

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  27. Just got back an hour ago from collecting Mrs F from Toulouse airport.The journey there (before Macron’s broadcast) was the usual bumper cars, the airport was quiet, the journey back was like some post-apocalypse film where everyone’s died. The roads were empty.

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  28. petrushka:
    Social isolation is my speciality.

    Make sure you are not going to be like that naked king in the fairy tale mentioned in the video…😉

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  29. Alan Fox:
    Anyway, don’t blameManu; he’s doing his best. It’s like a test for top politicians, who can come out of this looking better than they went in?

    He’s gone down in my estimation. Giving just 4 hours’ notice on Saturday – on ski changeover day – created a poor situation for many. The 16 hours for this measure likewise. It’s a 15 hour train journey! Trains out of Bourg were apparently rammed on Sunday, just what you need with an epidemic. Quieter Monday, now it may well be the same again later today.

    I saw some advice to ‘contact embassies’, which seems unnecessary. If getting home isn’t deemed ‘essential travel’, we will be left sitting in Gare du Nord, refugees all, which seems a little crazy, though I think common sense will prevail. They’d prefer us off their soil, I’d have thought.

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  30. Allan Miller,

    You didn’t assume there might be some problems traveling when you did? You were surprised? Come on, how can you blame Macron?

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  31. phoodoo:
    Allan Miller,

    You had to have known before you even left that it was risky journey.Its not like it was January 20th.

    Sure, but like many thousands of others, I went on the government advice at the time, while fully aware of the risk and accepting of the consequences. I gave it a lot of thought.

    It’s the short notice I’m grumbling at. Macron knew, more than I did, what was coming. If there’d been 48 hours notice of Saturday’s closures instead of 4, none of us would be here.

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  32. J-Mac: Now, I gotta find some ways to entertain 2 teens bored to death for who knows how long…

    Same here, schools have been closed down for three weeks.

    Allan Miller: If there’d been 48 hours notice of Saturday’s closures instead of 4, none of us would be here.

    Things are moving very rapidly. Café’s and restaurants were closed down here last sunday with half an hours notice.

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  33. Allan Miller: I gave it a lot of thought.

    I’m sorry, I saw your earlier comment before you set out for Bourg but I assumed you would be cancelling. My daughter tells me there was an earlier advisory order to close places of entertainment, bars etc. which was followed for Saturday night and everyone was back partying on Sunday. Hence the heavy-handed shutdown now. Just having turned seventy, I’m now under house arrest in 15 minutes time. Luckily, Mrs F is much younger and lovelier than me so I’ll be OK as she can go shopping.

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  34. Corneel: Things are moving very rapidly. Café’s and restaurants were closed down here last sunday with half an hours notice.

    The transformation from news story to stark reality has been dramatic!

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