Sometimes very active discussions about peripheral issues overwhelm a thread, so this is a permanent home for those conversations.
I’ve opened a new “Sandbox” thread as a post as the new “ignore commenter” plug-in only works on threads started as posts.
I will add that the claims I have made have been straightforward, limited in scope, backed by publicly available data, and with the exception of the nursing home fiasco, not political.
Your graphs probably reflect the same data, but they are cluttered and do not easily reflect responses to my claims.
And I have not attributed evil motives to anyone who made mistakes in the first part of the year.
I’m masking up in public spaces, keeping socially distanced and keeping social contacts limited to my bubble. Everyone I see is doing the same. I’m mystified by the spike in new infections in France. Maybe there is some truth in the idea that prior to widespread testing the actual level of infection was much higher than realised. The death rate here is minimal but presumably that will now start to rise.
I can’t say it won’t rise, but deaths usually lag new cases by three weeks, and so far the European surge hasn’t produced any rise in deaths.
I’ve been watching Florida, California and Texas. It seems possible that their surges started with young, socially active people who didn’t die, but who eventually spread the virus to older people. If so, this process takes six to eight weeks.
Something to watch.
Spain looks like a country to watch. Their case surge started six weeks ago, and there is a recent blip in deaths. But the number is tiny.
The out-of-date NYT article that you cited is pretty dire — including Judd Deere’s spin without any rebuttal represents pretty dank journalism. It doesn’t support your “80%” claim, however, so where did you get that particular falsehood?
As your NYT article notes:
which we now know is what happened: your article is wrong: check out the full genomic dataset (that I linked to), and the role of Michigan, which your NYT article fails to mention. Ooops.
No shit, Kojak! A month ago I pointed this out to you, writing:
Seriously, try to find a less biased news source, or STFU.
Seems reasonable, with the return to school we may see another surge.
Since you loving citing deaths per capita as an indication of how well a country is handling the virus situation, are you willing to say every African country on the continent is doing a better job handling the crisis than the Orange Idiot?
Oh, but its the states fault….
petrushka,
I think I remember you saying you have a grandaughter who is Asian. I think future historians can look at how many times she will be picked on or insulted because of the groundwork of racism your great leader has so graciously spewed throughout the land of the free. Let’s see how many of those insults have his grotesque dna signature on them.
I think you remember a lot of things that never happened.
Deaths per capita is a good indicator when population densities, foreign travel, and median ages are similar.
As DNAJock has pointed out, foreign travel is a big source of initial cases.
It also seems likely that time spent indoors with recirculated air is a major risk. Hence the almost zero risk of restaurants with outdoor dining.
Why? An indicator of what?
Still watching Spain. Their case rate started declining this week. They reached a case rate almost as bad as their spring surge, but so far, no surge in deaths.
Something is different.
Testing is different
Treatment is miraculously better
The virus is less virulent
Don’t know what it is.
Testing is much more widely available than at the beginning of the pandemic. Treatment of severe cases has improved, possibly as there have been plenty of mistakes to learn by. Less virulent strains get to spread more than lethal ones that kill the host so maybe that is inevitable.
I agree.
First testing batch was delivered from CDC to New York City on February 7, tests were less than adequate.
“There were three logical steps to consider after suspending travel from China. The first was suspending travel from Europe. By Jan. 21, Trump’s advisers knew the virus was in France. By Jan. 31, they knew it had reached Italy, Germany, Finland, and the United Kingdom. From conversations with European governments, they also knew that these governments, apart from Italy, weren’t going to block travel from China. And they were directly informed that the flow of passengers from Europe to the United States far exceeded the normal flow of passengers from China to the United States. Trump’s deputy national security adviser, Matthew Pottinger, pleaded for a ban on travel from Europe, but other advisers said this would hurt the economy in an election year. Trump, persuaded by Pottinger’s opponents, refused to go along.
Not until March 11, six weeks after blocking travel from China, did Trump take similar action against Europe. In a televised address, he acknowledged that travelers from Europe had brought the disease to America. Two months later, based on genetic and epidemiological analyses, the CDC would confirm that Trump’s action had come too late, because people arriving from Europe—nearly 2 million of them in February, hundreds of whom were infected—had already accelerated the spread of the virus in the United States.”
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/08/trump-coronavirus-deaths-timeline.html
Whose decisions had a bigger effect, Trump ,in consideration of election chances, or a health commissioner in New York urging people to go out to eat before any case were detected in NYC?
That was on March 25.
Trump, Jan 30 “We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five [cases]. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us.“
Not seeing a quote about scare mongering, On February 2, with the city’s first coronavirus case under investigation, Barbot stated: “The risk to New Yorkers from coronavirus is low and … our preparedness as a city is very high. There is no reason not to take the subway, not to take the bus, not to go out to your favorite restaurant, and certainly not to miss the [Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival] parade next Sunday [Feb. 9], no tests were yet available.
Trump,February 7 “ .he (Xi) will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!“
The Chinatown visit was February 24, “She downplayed the racism issue, saying she understands people are concerned about China – the epicenter of the novel coronavirus.
“But that shouldn’t be carried over to Chinatown in San Francisco,” she said. “I hope that it’s not that. But all I can say is, ‘I’m here.’ We feel safe and sound, so many of us coming here.”
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/nancy-pelosi-visits-san-franciscos-chinatown/2240247/
There were no confirmed cases at that time.
Trump,Feb 24” The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
No but a bit jumbled with the timeline and omission of what the President , who had the resources of the National Government to support him, said at the same point in time.
The thing that confuses me is , both these Democratic politicians were doing what you have advocated, trying to save cancer patients and the sick in third world, by keeping the economy going. What is the date when changed from being reckless with health and became being reckless with shutting down the country?
Yet. Right now China is up there with antifa, AOC , and Joe Biden as threats to the US per the President and his minions.
Hard to work out what’s going on, really, among the different nations. Our case rate is on the rise, but slowly, certainly less than the Jeremiahs have been predicting, while deaths are at low levels undreamed of a few months ago. We have a very different testing setup now, so case rate is probably closer to reality than that in April, hence a lower apparent mortality rate.
Allan Miller,
I am still scratching my head trying to figure out why anyone thinks mortality rate per capita is any kind of indicator of how well a country is handling the outbreak.
Also I think even if with more testing we see the overall mortality rate go lower, the biggest problem still remains that it is very difficult to know who will be affected severely. Seemingly normal healthy people get quite sick with it, and some people end up with pretty serious long lasting conditions. So it is probably not good to just think of it as another flu season.
phoodoo,
No, it definitely isn’t ‘mere flu’. But there is this sharp age profile. Age is a very good predictor of outcome, even though there are outliers in every age band (inevitably). If we could magically ensure that only under-60s got it, we could get a long way towards herd immunity at relatively small cost in lives, and with relatively little economic harm. Of course we can’t; pie in the sky thinking, but nor is it a simple binary: economy vs lives.
My daughter had a youngish patient who had barely eaten in months after losing their job to Covid. This compromised their general health, pushing them into a higher risk category by that cause alone. They had a life, but little quality: a victim of the downturn more than of Covid per se.
Allan Miller,
Former professional American football player, Michael Irvin, 54, said that having covid was the worst thing he has ever had to go through in his life. The range of people that it can affect very badly is quite vast.
No one thinks lockdowns are a good thing, but China did it, and it only really lasted one good month.
Yeah, one instance is hardly something one can generalise, any more than my daughter’s patient. Nonetheless, the truth is that some 90% of people don’t suffer badly. Another truth is that impoverished countries cannot afford decent healthcare.
But the virus hasn’t gone away. So now what? People still seem to think we’re in eradication mode. Can’t be done, not globally.
You asked this question previously, but the conversation got side-tracked…
Previously, your question was quite specific, viz:
But this time around, you are responding to a comment of Allan’s where he talks of “deaths” and of a “lower mortality rate” when (from context) it is clear that he is referring to the Case Fatality Rate.
Let’s try to be precise in our use of language.
In my opinion, the best barometer of how well a country is doing in response to the pandemic is “excess mortality”. This refers to the increased number of deaths when compared with the same time period in previous years. It can be measured as the {Age-Adjusted Excess Mortality (AAXSM), which considers young lives more important} or as the {Excess Per Capita Mortality, which has been reported for various countries}. These metrics share two key features:
1) They capture net deaths caused by the lockdown (suicides – car crashes)
2) They are completely unaffected by testing volume and strategy, or diagnosis rates.
The next best metric is {CoVid deaths per capita}. This is a pretty damn good metric of how well a country is handling CoVid. Countries that have not experienced significant CoVid infections will look very good. For now.
This metric ignores the negative effects of a lockdown, so it does not really help inform the “lockdown good vs lockdown bad” debate. Most critically, it represents an undercount; back-of-the-envelope, I estimate there are three CoViD deaths for every two recorded as such, everywhere except in Belgium.
But the extent of this undercount may vary dramatically, and change over time.
Finally, we come to metrics that depend on testing volume and strategy. These metrics are NOT good barometers for how a country is handling CoViD. They are useful indicators for different aspects of how the pandemic is being handled, but they are subject to severe confounding effects.
The Case Fatality Rate is the most abused parameter. (I worry that you may have confused the CFR with per capita mortality). Firstly, it suffers from a “death is a lagging indicator” problem, as I have tried to explain to petrushka. Secondly, it uses diagnoses as its denominator, and thus is hugely sensitive to the volume and strategy of testing. The other metric that is important, but also subject to abuse, is the test positivity — the percentage of tests that come back positive. High test positivity is a strong indicator that you are not testing enough people, but low positivity is NOT reassuring. By way of illustration, in the USA right now, interstate travel often requires a CoViD test, and students returning to college require a CoViD test, or two. Any strategy that requires the testing of large numbers of people who have no reason to think they might have been exposed will drive test positivity down. Any strategy that tests all the wrong people will have the same effect.
So testing volume is a measure of testing capacity, no more, and test positivity is a weak indicator. If volume and strategy are held constant, only then does a change in positivity indicate a meaningful trend.
As demonstrated recently, increasing test positivity combined with increasing case numbers is a BAD SIGN.
The purpose of lockdowns is not eradication, it is to buy time. Since the original outbreak techniques for care of infected patients have improved. And time to achieved the Holy Grail, a mass produced effective vaccine.
From what I have read, a mass produced effective vaccine rests on a few requirements: that covid-19 represents a very few closely related strains of the virus, that it hardly mutates much, and its nature is such that human T-cells can retain a long memory of it. There are some reports that the virus does mutate, that there are several strains of different potency, and that human immunity is fairly temporary. It’s possible that, like the flu, we’ll need a new vaccine from time to time. If the time is months, we have problems.
I can’t discount those who argue that it will become endemic, and sooner or later everyone will get it, vaccine or not.
True, but this is not how many people are spinning it. People are adopting polarised positions on an issue that is not a simple binary.
I think over-reliance on that ‘wizard will save’ us approach is a problem. We hold our breath for an underwater swim through a 5-minute tunnel in the hope that someone will roll up with scuba gear after 3…
So these are the countries you feel have handled the virus the best:
Mozambique
Uganda
Sri Lanka
Papua New Guinea
Tanzania
Vietnam
Burundi
South Sudan
Malaysia
Benin
Togo
Angola
China
Niger
Congo (Kinshasa)
Burkina Faso
Jordan
Botswana
Rwanda
Thailand
Interesting. Around 12% of the population of Benin practice Vodun. Maybe that’s one of the reasons.
Allan Miller,
It has been completely eradicated in China. Why are you saying it doesn’t work? Because other countries in the west’s response has sucked?
Even Jock feels the African model is best.
Yeah, pretty much, but subject to the caveats I mentioned — CoViD death per capita is an undercount, and regions with few cases will look artificially good, for now. That and I don’t believe the numbers from China.
Like I said, total excess mortality is a much better metric.
I’m not touting “the African model” — although Botswana is looking pretty impressive, but a lot of African countries have not really been challenged. Yet.
Singapore or South Korea is more of an exemplar.
Because China is not the only country in the world.
DNA_Jock,
What do you mean Botswana, what about Mozambique!
And here you have the uninformed government of the US issuing a travel warning NOT to go to Mozambique, because of the dangers of catching covid! A level 3 warning!
Don’t they know that Mozambique has the BEST covid response in the entire world?? THE BEST! I mean I guess they feel that people should go to Uganda instead, because there is also once of the best countries in the world at handling Covid, and maybe the weather is better in Uganda now?
Wait, wait, I just saw this update. Level 3 warning not to go to Uganda. Must be some kind of conspiracy to help tourism in Sri Lanka.
Oh no, its not that (Level 3).
Papua New Guinea!
Jock, can you please call the CDC and explain it to them?
It worked in China, but other countries shouldn’t do it because there are other countries?
Anyway, Jock says we should all go to New Guinea.
Will he meet us there?
It is a place of wonders:
“Also known as the New Guinea Dingo or the New Guinea Wild Dog, the New Guinea Singing Dog is a wild dog breed native to New Guinea. This breed is named for their unique form of vocalization – these dogs are able to vary the pitch of their howl in combination with various yips and whines which makes it sound like they are singing. These dogs are rare and closely related to wild dogs, so they are not a good choice a house pet. However, they are some in captivity – it takes a good deal of work to tame this breed but, once they are, they become closely attached to their human companions”
Sounds delightful.
Has it been eradicated?
Yes. And if there was no further incursion from other countries that haven’ done what China has done, it would essentially be gone forever. Right now where I live there is effectively zero percent chance of catching it.
This was true before the first case as well. I doubt it has been eradicated from bats (and maybe pangolins). Bats continue to represent a reservoir of any number of viruses.
No. Your ability to deliberately miss a point is legendary. If your recasting of the point sounds stupid, there’s a fair chance you haven’t grasped it.
My point is that China can’t stand alone while other countries have failed, unless travel is eternally rendered impractical. For your fantasy to bear fruit, every country has to ‘do a China’, not just some. How likely is that? A 2 tier world where some have eradicated and some have not is, I would say, impossible to sustain. But in order to do what China did globally, every country would need first to create a totalitarian state and a compliant population, and garner extensive resources: to be a rich totalitarian nation. Should be a breeze; nations are notoriously keen to embrace the Chinese Way. Look at Hong Kong.
Allan Miller,
England couldn’t have done what China did? There was nothing “totalitarian” about the cooperation the country took to rid the disease.
In fact, MOST of the world have come up with good solutions to bring the disease under control. Its rather telling that the two WORST countries that are dealing with this problem are England and the US. Their ideal of “I am free to be an asshole anytime I want” turns out to not be such a great ethic when a unified national effort is needed. Two asshole leaders leading a group of “free” assholes. Surprise, its not working so well…
Does either country have a national app to monitor the disease? A national mask policy? Was the lockdown universally applied? I remember seeing quite a few videos of the “free” Englanders shoving and punching the Asian who were wearing masks on public transportation because, well, why not-because you are free to punch people!
Ramp up the free to be an asshole mentality 10 fold, run by the biggest idiot on the planet and you have america. It takes a universal asshole mentality to ban together to say “blame the states!” when everything is going wrong. All China did was have a population that said, come on guys, let’s get through this together.
“U.S. Response to COVID-19 is Worse than China’s. 100 Times Worse.”
https://time.com/5850680/u-s-response-covid-19-worse-than-chinas/
100 times worse! Unbelievable.
And 1000+ times worse than Vietnam.
I am going to send a cable to Jock in New Guinea asking him about the Mumu.
Err, phoodoo, I don’t know how to break it to you, but your Time article is using per capita deaths as its (primary, if not sole) metric or how well countries are doing.
And they also note the issue with the undercount…
Awwwkward
😀
In other news, Botswana is not New Guinea. Heh.
No kidding, wow. Its using deaths per capita? Gee, it almost makes one wonder why I mentioned you?? Huh, how strange.
If they used other stats it would be 1 million times better.
Botswana not quite as good at New Guinea according to you. Why limit yourself.
Awwwkward…..
There was considerable compulsion, from what I hear. But we have half the police force of France. It’s not just England. Every country in the world would have to do it. It’s an unreachable fantasy. It’s not simply about the rump of ‘free-will assholes’ – although, again, for your fantasy to bear fruit, they have to be persuaded somehow not to exist, or be subjugatable.
“In an ideal world where every country is in a position to eradicate, resources unlimited, force total, compliance complete, the whole population of one mind, we can beat this”. Sure. What planet are you on?
I’m not a fan of the China-bashing, but it’s ironic that it’s every country but China’s fault …
This is a bit surprising, given the many ideologies KN has floated here, suggesting (posturing?) that he stands with the poor and oppressed, rather than with the rich oppressor, in this case of academics and the public purse.
Why is it “obviously” and why “never ever”? Is this a “moral” stand of some kind you’re taking? Do you have something against Aleksandra Elbakyan (or for that matter, Aaron Schwartz)?
I had hoped that you could set your zeal to belittle KN aside, long enough to explain what Sci-Hub is, and what someone might find objectionable about it. From Wikipedia, I learn that it’s a site that takes stuff out from behind paywalls, making it freely available while violating copyrights and deserved revenues to creators of original content.
What I see here, admittedly with almost no information, is what looks like a broken system — if research is behind paywalls, the open sharing of research on which science depends is stifled, whereas if that research is “stolen” from a system researchers depend on for some funding, this discourages further research. In other words, the system punishes either way. Perhaps it would be best if paywalls weren’t an income necessity. Surely research publication can be funded some other way.
I don’t know whose quote that is, but everyone’s fault but China-what does that even mean?
Like Ebola is Conga’s fault, but they just won’t take responsibility? Lyme is Connecticut’s fault?
“Thou hast brought a vine out of Egypt: thou hast cast out the heathen, and planted it.” Fucking Nutmeggers!
It wasn’t a quote, it was an ironic paraphrase of the notion you appear to be advancing. You don’t even recognise one of your own tactics!
No, it’s just ironic to be lectured on How To Deal With Covid: The Chinese Way. I’m not saying it’s ‘China’s fault’. But you’re cheerfully pointing the finger at (almost) every other nation on earth for not mirroring their response.
Trump – harsh but fair.
Allan Miller,
Well, indeed. But we outsiders need to be careful not to cause another backfire.
Quote:
KEEP YOUR FUCKIN’ LIMEY HANDS OFF OUR ELECTION. HEY, SHITHEADS, REMEMBER THE REVOLUTIONARY WAR? REMEMBER THE WAR OF 1812? WE DIDN’T WANT YOU, OR YOUR POLITICS HERE, THAT’S WHY WE KICKED YOUR ASSES OUT. FOR THE 47% OF YOU WHO DON’T WANT PRESIDENT BUSH, I SAY THIS … TOUGH SHIT!
PROUD AMERICAN VOTING FOR BUSH!
I was being ironic. I use Sci-hub all the time. I think it’s obscene that journals put knowledge behind paywalls. I thought the irony was obvious, since why else would I even mention Sci-hub if not as an implicit endorsement?
Needless to say, I am once again reminded that irony and tone of voice do not convey well on the Internet!
Back at the prediction desk:
New cases are up by at least 5%, based on a seven-day average, in 26 states as of Sunday, compared with just 12 states a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. In Arizona, Florida, California and Texas, new cases are declining by at least as much, though those states still accounted for nearly 10,000 new cases combined on Sunday — or about a fourth of all new U.S. cases.
Across the nation, average new cases have climbed three of the last five days.
Many of the recently growing outbreaks across the country are occurring in the Midwest, including Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio and the Dakotas. Those states collectively reported more than 7,400 new cases Sunday, according to data collected by Hopkins.
CNBC