Sometimes very active discussions about peripheral issues overwhelm a thread, so this is a permanent home for those conversations.
I’ve opened a new “Sandbox” thread as a post as the new “ignore commenter” plug-in only works on threads started as posts.
Hitler was said to rely on astrologers and seers.
You believe in PSI. You believe in astrologers and seers, for what are they if not manifestations of PSI.
Therefore it’s you that votes a neo nazi ticket, right?
No you didn’t, that is why I never claimed you did. Just as I never claimed that you were expressing skepticism/ sarcasm about his claim of not voting for a Republican Some people might say that , but I didn’t.
I would think if anything , a Nazi running would choose to run as a Republican, they are a big tent party.David Duke expressed support for Donald Trump and his immigration policies The American Freedom party has a pretty Small footprint.
That didn’t work out too well.
Petrushka, I have a serious question for you. Do you think the agent orange drinks the piss, or does he just rinse his sticky hair with it? Sorry to have to ask.
I find it interesting that the same arguments creationists use against evolutionists are used against me.
I talk about political realities — what kinds of policies are likely to win elections — and from that you try to define my character.
To be fair, I am not a prophet, and don’t know election results in advance. But I can see where the campaigns are going.
Right, right, you are just a political analyst-no bias there at all. Gotcha.
Maybe they can make a statue of a Russian whore pissing on agent orange, at least it would be realistic.
Some people might, others find your arguments unpersuasive and present data based arguments.
What people define as the important political realities and what is a likely to win an election is a subjective judgement. Subjective judgements are the influenced by many things. That is why discussions about such things are interesting.
We all can, the problem is know where they will end up.
Personally I could care less what Trump’s sexual proclivities are. The only thing I am concerned with is what he and his minions are doing to my country.
If that is his thing, he should be happy at the thought there will be a line of folks waiting to piss on his grave.
I realize that my assessment of political reality is subject to being wrong. But I pay particular attention to sources that would be defined as hostile witnesses in court.
People who have personal reasons for hoping my expectations are wrong.
At present I think the outcome will be driven by news and events yet to unfold.
The economy, the rise or fall of the pandemic, the protests, the Durham investigation. Of these, I think the economy is likely to be the biggest factor.
My thought on Harris is she is just barely a neutral factor. Just barely not a negative factor. Like Biden, she has a lot of history that doesn’t play well in the current climate.
Sure ,some people personally like living in a functioning democracy. But having hope of a particular outcome does not necessarily imply denial of reality. Just like it doesn’t mean an assessment is correct because some people have bad judgement. Things should be judged on their own merits.
Agreed, there are some events which have already unfolded which we are unaware or whose significance has yet to emerge. Like in gambling ,we predict an outcome by experience , data, and guesses. That is the nature of life, an unknown future requires decisions based on incomplete data. That is the advantage of believing in an all knowing source. It already knows how things turn out.
The unpredictability and volatility of Trump, the New York State investigation of his finances, foreign powers meddling in the election. Lots of things may influence the outcome, just to balance that list a little bit.
Until the pandemic,I would agree. Now ,the pandemic is my choice. The pandemic affects the economy, social interaction, medical system, literally life and death.
It’s effect on the economy has not yet even been guessed. The economy has been flush with cash since the pandemic started, over 2 billion has been pumped into the economy , the Fed is doing extraordinary interventions. That cash has run out, 10% unemployment, lots of debt accumulated during the freeze. Republicans are returning to form. Many who are fiscally insecure realize their prosperity, despite the promises of Trump ,might be sacrificed ,like many Americans lives, to the needs of the Economy.
The problem is the virus is still active , number of cases down with slowing of testing, but positivity still high. Mortality keeps up with the thousand a day total. The present administration only strategy is to ignore it ,hope for a vaccine, call to open up. Schools have opened, then closed. The president reassures the parents that there is only a .05 % , practically 0 he adds, your child will die. I think Trump disregard for anything but his needs is starting to become apparent to many. Without the pandemic ,none of this occurs.
See that is where ,I get the feeling that you are a bit more partisan than you admit. While I don’t think generally she will be the deciding factor for voters, she has many qualities that benefit the campaign. She is has most experience on the big stage of all the prospects. She exposes the misogynistic, racist core of Trump, once again. She solidifies the base. While her time as a prosecutor, downsides. To exploit it, it brings the position of Trump to bear.
The things you seem to not calculating is they are not being judged in a vacuum. While the Trump campaign hopes they can depress turnout with that logic, everything Trump does created a tsunami of enthusiasm to vote against Trump. He is floating the idea of funding Social Security from the general fund, and trust us we will never cut it. Not all his voters are that stupid to put their only source of income totally at the mercy of government shutdown and tax cuts. Those are his base
It’s true that the Biden enthusiasm is focused on anti-Trump sentiment. We’ll have to wait and see how that works out.
Democrats are plenty enthusiastic, not as much as Trump’s fanatical followers when it comes to the candidate. But when it comes to casting their vote .they are highly enthusiastic. Harris has turned out a plus, she had been the choice of most people before the selection.
Did hear a survey the 51% of the people think the economy is biggest factor, and Trump is ahead 10 points on handling the economy. Of the remaining 49% of factors. Biden is favored by 15- 20 points.
My question is why is Trump not pumping more money into the economy, it is not that he is frugal, he wastes all sort of money. My feeling is he can’t get out of his own way.
How would you pump money into the economy?
The big retailers are rolling in profits. What’s hurting are small businesses. Most mom and pop restaurants will not reopen, or will have new owners.
Republicans have become the blue collar party. November will test what this means, but I would not discount the symbolism of bringing back manufacturing jobs.
My reading of the covid charts is that most of the country will reach New York levels of deaths in October. That’s within shouting distance of automobile fatalities.
Florida was the bad boy last month, and it is down 66 percent in one month (new case rate). Texas and California are taking the same path, but their slope is not as steep.
I have looked and looked for any second wave of deaths, anywhere in the world. The only one I’ve seen is Iran. In general, per capita deaths can be predicted from a country’s median age. Equatorial Africa has a median age of about 18, and almost no covid deaths.
I have a point, and it is that covid will be mostly done by November. Perhaps we’ll have a vaccine by then to protect old people. If so, it would be stupid to remain closed up. There will be a lot of anger if schools and colleges and restaurants remain closed.
On July 27th, you wrote:
Accurate for Arizona, but wrong for the other three. At 75% wrong, it’s your most accurate prediction so far.
[spit-take]
Nationally, US is at about 53 CoViD deaths per 100,000
If we reach New York levels, that’s 168 deaths per 100,000.
Automoblie fatalities are a paltry 12 per 100,000
“Shouting distance”?
Really?
Yeah, that explains why the rate is so high in Germany, Canada and Japan and so low in Bolivia.
</sarcasm>
Not a lot of deaths in Equatorial Africa, because there’s not a lot of cases. Yet.
Your capacity for evidence-free wishful thinking is amazing.
Florida
Texas
California
New York
New York CFR
Nigeria. CFR
petrushka,
How many graphs do you think you can post that will someone make it seem that another country in the world has fucked this up more than the US?
But voters are supposed to forget that by November?
Are you a scapegoat farmer?
Petrushka, in case you forgot, on July 27th you predicted that “deaths will be undeniably down by the middle of August.”
So CFRs and New Cases plots are irrelevant. See the graphic below.
Similarly, back on June 12th you were declaring the epidemic pretty much over, highlighting the steady declining trend in cases and deaths. I pointed out how wrong that prediction was.
Please stop writing such utter rubbish about a serious public health issue. Not a single one of the graphics you posted here is relevant to our ‘discussion’.
USA new cases
USA deaths. Not down at the same rate as new cases, even considering a three week lag. But down from a month ago. We’ll see what becomes of the trend. I expect the downward trend to continue.
If your graphs aren’t of rolling averages you get all kinds of meaningless spikes.
I admit that I expected deaths to fall off at nearly the same rate as the new case fall off. I was wrong about that. Either something about testing has changed, or older people are now being affected by the rise that started in June.
CFR has gone up, which I didn’t anticipate.
If you look at the universe of failed predictions, I’m not feeling bad. Come back at the end of the month and we’ll talk about whether the downward trend is deniable.
DNA_Jock,
Why are you being fooled into thinking deaths per capita is a good barometer of federal response to covid? It is virtually meaningless in regards to how the disease is being controlled in the population.
But if you do look at it this way, it turns out China and Thailand, outside of some African countries come out about last in deaths per capita. So the US, by virtually ANY standard is way, way way worse than both Africa and China.
China is pretty amazing
Trump is using fema money right now, Democrats are looking for a longer term solution.
No they won’t, small restaurants traditionally have a slim profit margin, many depend on seasonal surges to get them through the year. Working from home, a trend that looks to be long term will hurt small urban restaurants, as well the reluctance of many to crowd into small spaces with strangers. That is the nature of capitalism.
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/20/2005476117
petrushka,
Oh for fuckssakes, now you are going to blame local officials for not doing what there is national government for. Yea, just read the nationalreview, that will set your thinking straight.
You see the way China is the way it is, they actually had a national response-its called governing. The orange idiot wouldn’t know a thing about that would he? He also owns a giant scapegoat farm.
If you watch the Republican Convention , I predict we will see it totally gone except in the blue states.
Wonder what the liability protection the drugs companies will demand before putting the vaccine on the market before fully tested.
Europe felt the same way, much lower infection rates than the US has ever experienced. They opened up. The virus ,it seemed , did not disappear.
Right now, being partially shut down is what is causing the decline in Texas. Open back up, put 25,000 people in a football stadium, put students back on campus, it will surge back in the community. And the seasonal flu to the mix and there just seems no justification to believe the virus will just die out.
Anger is not very effective protection from getting and spreading the virus. But it seems irrational to demand schools reopen before there are plans in place to protect the students , staff. Plans which cost money to implement, and spending money makes the same people angry as well.
Maybe they can beat up some more teenagers who are working for minimum wage to feel better. Or dismantling the Post Office might cheer them up.
We have a leader who thrives on anger and lies , what could anyone do to make his followers less angry?
It is only going to get worse by November in every way is my prediction. More dead , more anger, more lies. But maybe Apple stock will go up which will benefit the 10% unemployed in some way.
No doubt, but they did not push other states to reopen early, causing more deaths .
They didn’t make the calculation it was politically beneficial to the re-election to let blue states citizens die.
They did not actively continue to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic. They did nothing for the immigration detainees in Federal custody to protect them for the virus.
There is plenty of blame to go around, But only one short-fingered vulgarian controlled the power of the Federal Government. And he did worse than nothing.
newton,
Blaming regional officials for the failure of the national government is the specialty of North Korea, and agent orange.
An effective policy must be national, and it must be top-down. Regional and local officials of course must be involved, since they are closest to the people actually infected, to the doctors and hospitals doing the hands-on stuff, to local allocation of resources. But they represent the “last mile” of the health delivery system. I wonder if there are any free-market economists who will argue that optimal allocation decisions will result from everyone involved bidding against everyone else.
I’m glad to see that we have a clear contrast in predictions for the next couple of months. But be sure we are talking about the same thing, I will specify that I expect the national new case rate and national death rate to decline to pre-April numbers.
In the United States, public health is the responsibility of the states. Always has been.
Due to what cause?
Just because the man in charge is a lazy bastard doesn’t mean that as an elected official you have no responsibility , you swore an oath to carry out the duties of your office to the best of your ability. It is your job.
Yes, but not the sole responsibility. Federal funds go to a multitude of public health issues. Right now Trump is funding search for a vaccine with federal money. Trump is threatening to withhold federal funding if the states do not reopen. Only when it is convenient does Trump adhere to that principle.
How much will be shut down come November? Will the there be no restrictions? Have a prediction on that?
I’m inclined to agree with this, but case and death rates are declining because of behaviors and policies that are far from normal. People are still widely unemployed, the restaurant/bar business is suffering badly, mask use and social distancing are becoming more accepted and followed, many work at home experiments haven’t been very successful. Where these cautions are not followed, we’re seeing clusters of cases – in church congregations, classrooms, weddings, etc. I think your prediction presupposes pro-covid lifestyles will not resume, at least not much.
Bullshit. Complete bullshit.
Its not even a marginally true, anymore than saying safety is a responsibility of the states, or economy is the responsibility if the states, or the environmental is a responsibility of the states, or civil rights is a responsibility of the states. Is the federal government’s only responsibility protection from foreign invasion? If we could just move that to the states we could close the white house down?
Actually the Tenth Amendment says so,
“The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.“
Now you might argue that the Commerce Clause has been expanded to encompass and dependence on Federal funding is universal that the power of the States has been eroded. Is that what you are doing?
That is where the Equal Protection Clause comes in:
“No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.“
No, there has been legal battles since the beginning defining the power of the Federal Government . They have expanded, Trump just uses a narrow interpretation when it suits him.
As for shutting down the Federal Government, see The American Civil War.
Like the parting of the Red Sea, God will save The Donald from being a loser.
newton,
No, you are talking about state laws, not public policies.
For instance, the orange idiot is thinking of fast-tracking an unproven British vaccine for the virus. Well, how could that be if the states are in charge of public health? The states have to fast track it!
I could name a 1000 other policies, but the bottom line is, during crisis such as pandemics, it is the federal government in charge. The US is not a rogue bunch of regions that can do whatever they want. During emergencies the federal government sets policy.
And the policy is that the states are to set policy.
Right, it’s one reason they fucked up so bad. Because they are leaderless. Because they couldn’t come up with any coherent strategy. No national testing policy, no national tracking app (China managed it with a billion MORE people than the US), no mask policy, no mass gathering policies-just a freeforall- THAT is the primary difference between the US and every other nation in the world’s response.
Catastrophic clusterfuck.