Brexit – you may have heard of it. For 40 years, since the UK joined the then Common Market, there has been a substantial ‘Eurosceptic’ mood in both main political parties and in the country. This has been influenced by a never-ending stream of misinformation in the tabloids, claiming the EU is responsible for every one of its readers’ many ills – including a few they didn’t even know they were bothered by until the papers told them – and spreading alarm that the EU’s ‘ever closer union’ means that it is becoming a federal Superstate, complete with army, president and anthem. To a proud ‘patriot’, this is anathema.
The rest of us simply don’t see it that way, and regard the visceral reaction to our ongoing membership with puzzlement. We value the notions of common cause and unity in a continent still bearing the deep scars of two World Wars that started here, while the requirement for 28 nations to agree policy, unanimously or by majority according to area of impact, offers some protection from the petty politics of the individual nations, whose negative aspects we are amply demonstrating to the world right now. Most law is made by the individual nations, and that will continue to be the case. The rest is voted on by elected delegates. The idea that the remaining 27 nations are willing parties to surrendering their nation status for fully centralised rule, with Britain alone seeing what is really going on … well, it looks a bit mad. Many people in Scotland want to both leave the UK, and remain in the EU as a separate nation. This would make no sense if the ‘death of nation states’ view of the future held any water. And equally proud nations like France, Germany, Italy, Spain … ? I mean, come on! When someone claims ‘Superstate’ as a reason for exit, I regard them as I might someone grabbing the steering wheel and shouting “ALIEEEEENSSSS!” (permissible, of course, when there really are aliens).
Due – it seems to me – to that relentless anti EU propaganda from billionaire-owned tabloids, the national mood has become increasingly Eurosceptic. A political party, UKIP, started with a sole aim in mind, to exit the EU, garnered a lot of support, particularly from what is still termed the ‘working classes’. Due in part to our peculiar constituency system of election, they were unable to gain any seats in Parliament, but ironically, in the EU Parliament’s Proportional Representation system, they gained several seats in order to harangue those on the EU ‘gravy train’ while collecting a fat paycheck, plus expenses and a £75,000 pension.
This drift of support from Conservative candidates to UKIP was a concern for Conservative leader David Cameron, then in a coalition government, and so in the 2015 manifesto, he offered a commitment to hold a referendum on the matter. Manifesto pledges are not really worth the paper they are written on, being honoured as often in the breach as the observance, but Cameron was true to his word, sadly, and on 23rd June 2016 we were offered a simple choice: Remain in the EU or Leave the EU (a question laughably naive, in hindsight, but adjudged by the independent Electoral Commission as least likely to confuse the plebs). To everyone’s surprise, including their own, Leave won, garnering 17,410,742 votes to Remain’s 16,141,241. Although a not-insignificant 1.3 million difference, the real margin, the number who would have to change their minds to wipe out the win, was just 634,750. We have been arguing ever since about what people meant when they placed their X in the ‘Leave’ column. It may seem obvious, but it isn’t – there are almost as many flavours of Leave as Leavers, from a cocky two fingers to the EU in its entirety, by midnight on referendum day if poss (oh, and can we negotiate a trade deal with you please, this powerful bloc we’ve just told to fuck off), to non-voting but expensive membership such as that enjoyed by Norway who takes all the rules and has no say in them, to full-blown NWO tinfoil-hatters.
Leavers were like the dog that caught the car, unsure what to do next. The great thing about referendums being of course that there is no accountability. You can say what you like, you’re not the one who will have to deliver. Eurosceptics were largely professional sideline snipers.
Cameron resigned immediately – my turd, you clean it up. Within a short period of time all three main parties lost their leaders. For the Tories, Theresa May emerged, eventually getting in unopposed when the other candidates wisely dropped out. In the UK, we do not directly elect our Prime Minister – ironically, given the ‘EU is undemocratic’ trope regularly trotted out. They are elected as MP by their constituency, in her case leafy Maidenhead in Berkshire. You don’t live there, you can’t vote for her. They then become PM by becoming leader of the party, elected by members (if anyone else stands).
For Labour on the other hand, Jeremy Corbyn, an old-school socialist, emerged. He had enthusiastic support, particularly among the young, and they were quite strident in their dismissal of ‘centrists’. “Why not just fuck off and join the Tories?” was a common taunt, which probably won’t be their opening line when they turn up on those same centrists’ doorsteps at campaign time asking for their support. To his supporters, he’s beyond criticism. To his detractors, he’s just a very naughty boy.
May was emboldened by the polls to try a ‘snap’ general election in 2017, to “strengthen my hand in EU negotiations”. Really, it was an attempt to smash Corbyn. The nation said “no thanks” and returned the Tories (having said “no thanks” to Jeremy too!) with a reduced majority. She had to rely on the Ulster Unionists, a group of 10 hard-line religious fundamentalists representing just 300,000 voters. Northern Ireland, I should mention, voted as a region to Remain (as did Scotland). I hope you’re keeping up; there will be a test. Now, Northern Ireland is an issue no—one had given much thought to. It’s long been a line of ‘Trouble’, but since we were both in the EU, and after long negotiations all parties had signed up to the Good Friday Agreement, a general, if uneasy, peace had returned.
However, the Border will now be a boundary between Britain and the EU. Since we have (maybe; ask me again on Friday) exited both the Single Market and the Customs Union, WTO rules (not EU rules) mean that there will have to be checks – a return of the hated ‘hard border’. There are naturally concerns, and the EU has offered a ‘deal’ that involves an extended Customs arrangement. This requires a far greater say of the EU in our affairs – the very thing Brexiteers were trying to get away from – while simultaneously removing us from a seat at the table that decides these rules. Genius. Eurosceptics hate it and so do Remainers. It is an utterly pointless move, both agree. But whaddyagonnado? The referendum was split close to 50/50, and no-one thought to put in supermajority safeguards, so a compromise that absolutely no-one wants seems the only way to, in the leaden phrase uttered by politician after politician, ‘respect the referendum’.
The ultras are having none of it. They want to crash out without a ‘deal’, a position most people with brain cells regard as absolutely insane, and not one to be inferred from any individual Leave ‘X’ with any confidence. Yet they act as if ‘the 17.4 million’ (another leaden phrase) all wanted, and still want, exactly that. Even the dead ones. Most Remainer MPs meanwhile dare not talk of cancelling Brexit altogether, but talk of something softer but still Brexit-y, with Customs this and Single that, without really coming up with anything concrete. The EU are understandably losing patience. They have been the soul of diplomacy and patience in my view. When Donald Tusk remarked that “there must be a special place in Hell for those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan”, Brexiters were furious, missing the nuance that by resenting the slur they own up to having no plan…
“May’s Deal” has been soundly rejected by both sides in two record-breaking defeats in Parliament – and she wants to bring it back a third time! She’s convinced that if she plays chicken, and it’s that deal or ‘no-deal’, then her deal it is. This gives some flavour of the general unpopularity of no-deal, that it can be used as a threat – “if you don’t stop I’m going to turn this car right around!”. But now, the EU are saying if it’s defeated a 3rd time, you either go now or you have a longer extension and take part in European elections (did I mention that the EU is undemocratic?).
We aren’t ready. Not by a long chalk. In my area, IT, I know that it takes yonks (Google it) to put a system in place, and they haven’t even started – because they don’t know what we have to do! But May’s steely determination, with hardliners’ boots on her neck, has brought us to this ill-prepared impasse – a non-choice between two unpopular options that were not even on a ballot paper in 2016, and we HAVE to do it because … ‘it’s the will of the people’. Now where have we heard that before?
There is a febrile atmosphere. A pro-Remain MP, Jo Cox, was murdered in 2016, and all MPs who dare to retain Remain sympathies have received death threats (I am not aware of any such threats being made to Brexiteers). Even a lady who started an online petition to simply abandon the whole thing – more on which shortly – has received multiple death threats. The reasonable Leavers find common cause with racists, thugs and Nazi sympathisers. In this climate the Prime Minister took the extraordinary step on Wednesday of appealing directly to ‘the people’ and blaming MPs for the impasse, something one would imagine happening in some banana republic, not dear old Britain where our quaint system involves people donning ritual wigs and banging on a door with a big ceremonial stick from time to time. Given the recent assassination, she might be more careful how she whips up ‘the people’. The Government is making plans to impose martial law – martial law! – in the event of no-deal disruption. We’re hoping not to have to actually do it, they add, a little unnecessarily.
I have gone on at far greater length than I intended about the background to this; I was merely intending to mention and show a few pictures from the march I attended yesterday in London, where over a million people *** – mostly middle-class, it must be admitted – came from all over Britain to make their voice heard, and demand a vote on the actual options available, which weren’t known in 2016 when the blank-cheque ‘Leave’ option was ticked (or crossed, I should say). Seems reasonable? You’d think so, but this is Britain. No end of Leavers, both in power and out, still insist that the referendum – that 634,750 excess – be ‘respected’, 3 years down the line. Many Remainers agree. But surely that phrase must have a sell-by date? 1.5 million people have died since, a similar number have attained voting age. That demographic shift alone favours Remain, because Leave is most heavily favoured in my g-g-g-g-generation (yes, Roger Daltrey is a Brexiteer).
It also seems a matter of basic fairness that Leavers should give their final assent to the preferred method of leaving, given they weren’t asked and the options differ markedly. If Remain happens to rank above any given Leave option available, they should be able to say so. Yet many – including our own Prime Minister – have explicitly stated that such a vote would be ‘undemocratic’. The irony of this was not lost on the crowd yesterday, many placards making mention of May’s three attempts to get her deal ratified while denying ‘the People’ any further say. Indeed, the placards and the general mood of the march made one swell with pride at the crazy Britishness of the whole thing. We stood in a 2-mile queue for an hour, then shuffled good-naturedly along, smiling apologies when feet got trodden on, with barely a policeman in sight (apart from Downing Street, where numerous officers stood in front of the gates, another 8 more behind brandishing submachine guns. “We only want to talk to her”, we might say, like an estranged husband trying to get past his ex’s mum).
A particularly clever brand of trolling has been invented by a group know as ‘Led By Donkeys’. This started as a chat in a pub by 3 mates. They decided to mock up a tweet of some genuine Leave-leader words, get it printed as a full-size billboard, and then stick it up guerilla-style in the dead of night. Subsequently they crowdsourced a bit of funding, rented legitimate space and hired a professional to do the pasting. When they got a bit more cash, they hired an ad van – ironically the same van used by UKIP founder Nigel Farage during referendum campaigning – and used it to follow Nigel about. The van was at the march yesterday, rotating some of their greatest hits – “If this is 52/48 Remain it’s unfinished business by a long way” (N. Farage); “It might make sense to have two referendums actually … ” (J Rees-Mogg); or the classic “A democracy that cannot change its mind ceases to be a democracy” (D. Davis). The latter was also printed up on a sheet 100 yards across and held up for the news helicopters to film, a stroke of genius.
Contrast this with the behaviour at many Leaver events. The committed are really angry, without apparent dilution by the self-deprecating, ironic streak of the average Remainer. Many point to civil unrest as a reason to cave in – some violence is a virtual certainty, but one that should not faze a bulldog nation that stood up to Hitler, the IRA and ISIS, as patriots never stop reminding us.
In parallel with all this, the previously mentioned petition, on an official government website, suddenly blew up on Wednesday – moments after May had delivered her ‘you, the people’ speech. ‘I’m on your side’. she said. It got under everyone’s skin. Within a short period the petition was being shared far and wide, as people sought the only means available to distance themselves from the “hive-mind with but a single thought” this obsessive woman tries to portray us as. 1,000 signatures a minute, it crashed the site several times. 2 million a day at peak (Thu/Fri), and presently sitting around the 5.3 million mark and rising. That’s 5 million people who just want to say “Stop” – not even “put it to the people”; Stop. Leavers are falling over themselves to try and discredit it, one site with terrible journalistic standards but a seat on a BBC panel trying to make something of the fact that many signatures were from ‘foreign places’. The fact that citizens are still allowed out of the country from time to time may help to explain this sinister pattern! Or you’ll hear it’s bots, or it’s people with 10,000 email addresses each and a lot of time on their hands … I jokingly commented that most of the people on the march yesterday were robots or foreigners, plus a bunch running from end to end like a kid in a panoramic school photo to bulk the numbers. It was almost Trumpian in scale!
Now, will any of this make a difference? Perhaps not. As I write, we leave on Friday, with no deal. Please send blankets.
*** Intellectual honesty demands that I dial this figure down. Crowd experts say about half that figure. Fair enough. Nonetheless, my Facebook post saying I was going picked up 27 ‘likes’, none of whom went. I’ll assume their support, and multiply it. I’ll discount the one Brexiteer who was possibly confused which march I was talking about!
faded_Glory,
They will have to look elsewhere for that! I’ve been radicalised by 3 years of triumphalism, sneering and grotesquely bad arguments, the cynical manipulation of the gullible by press and politicians, and the complete dismissal of ‘the 48%’ as possessing a voice or a legitimate viewpoint. If a group wanted to lose the support of people they needed to get on board if they were to make a success of a venture, they could do well to observe the Brexiteers.
(I am aware that Remainers do not always conduct themselves with diplomacy either).
The DUP are pragmatists. In a choice between a united Ireland and remaining in the EU, they’ll take remain.
Yep, I saw that.
God, the Irish Question! Into the mix we can throw Sinn Fein, whose 7 MPs refuse to take their seats due to the requirement to swear allegiance to the Crown. That’s 7 Remainers unavailable to vote. Although I wonder if they might secretly hope for Brexit to be rubbish and fuel a move to reunification. Disaster nationalism (I’ve used that already, but I’m quite pleased with it!).
There was an excellent Patrick Kielty documentary on the Troubles, GFA and Brexit. His dad was murdered by Loyalists when he was 16. He interviewed Arlene Foster. It was a revelation. Her own father was shot and injured by the IRA. She came across well, and showed her human face, a salutary lesson not to just believe the cartoon view we get. I felt like giving her a hug.
Is the CUK Party real, or an invention of the Onion?
I missed that and I see it’s not currently available on BBC I-player. I see the Irish Times ran an article but I’d like to have seen that encounter.
Never heard of it. What does the C stand for? I’m guessing UK is United Kingdom.
Change UK – the name that TIG want to use for a new political party. There seems to be an issue because there is already a website or an organisation with that name, I think.
faded_Glory,OK, thanks, that I was aware of, being a fan of Ms Soubry.
It’s a rubbish name!
Linky. Should be compulsory viewing for all Brits who think this a side-issue. Puts trade in the shade.
Allan Miller,
Thanks, Allan. Will watch later tonite!
Allan Miller,
Well, that was… raw! Arlene Foster? OK but I would love to be able to give Mo Mowlam a hug. It would be a terrible shame if her legacy were not to endure.
A rival petition has been started, responsive to that I mention which now exceeds 6 million signatures, urging a precipitate ‘no-deal’ exit. Numbers are maybe too low yet to draw statistically significant conclusions, but as I write the stark distribution of sentiment between the nations is already becoming manifest, even on a percentage basis which makes some correction for population asymmetry. An argument, I feel, against a naive ‘one man one vote’ national pool.
Well the signing rate has now equalized between them. “Revoke article 50” has over 6 million signatures and “No deal” has just over 600,000. Is ten to one statistically significant? Does it matter given the state of UK parliament at the moment?
Two different petitions – the 600,000 one was for 29th March, and had been running a while. The one I linked was in response to the new deadline of April 12. The 6 million petition has had zero impact. It was debated in a side chamber. Unless it’s ‘17.4 million’ it doesn’t count – even though it is largely restricted to people active on social media, and those who support the summary action proposed, which is not all Remainers by any means.
There was an extraordinary interview with Nick Boles, who dramatically announced his resignation in the House the night before, on R4 last night. He had some choice words for people refusing to compromise – both the Brexiteers and ‘hard Remainers’ like myself, which I take on the chin. I’ve never heard anyone lay into their Party so vigorously.
Then we had Owen Patterson this morning, repeating the ‘what 17.4 million voted for’ line in support of no-deal. No-deal was not on the ballot, nor leaving CU, SM, etc. If that had been explicitly stated, “this is what you are voting for”, you can bet your life it would not have got the nod. Populist charlatans!
It’s an interesting area of game theory, taking me back to Selfish Gene and the Prisoner’s Dilemma. We all know each other’s hand. We know that the hardliners will not countenance May’s deal, or anything soft, however protective of the Irish Border. We know that no-one except hardliners wants to be associated with ‘no-deal’ (a ‘leaked’ briefing predicts 10% price rises, direct rule in NI and difficulty in maintaining order).
Meantime the first signs of separatist terrorism appear – two ‘devices’ have been found on rail tracks with ‘leave means leave’ notices attached. While it’s worrying, ‘”leaves” on the line’ is unintentionally funny, having become, along with ‘the wrong sort of snow’, a byword for British transport ineptitude.
Readers of this thread may be interested in this: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/04/most-secessionist-movements-brexit-shows-breaking-hard
I suspect that if nations were corporations, they would settle this with money and contracts. It might take a few years of negotiations, but an agreement would be worked out.
From the New Statesman article linked by walto.
I don’t know about Les Québecois, maybe Bruce would like to weigh in but Catalonia?
Catalonia fought against Franco with the Spanish republicans (legitimately elected) on the understanding they would regain autonomy. Bear in mind they were a sovereign principality from 1157 until invaded and subjugated by Spain in 1659. I spent a few days in Catalonia around Christmas. There were yellow ribbons, Catalan flags and political slogans up everywhere, protesting the imprisonment of their political leaders following the referendum there. A sense of injustice still seems to burn quite brightly.
And the Scots? This latest Brexit kerfuffle has given them their best shot at independence in a long time so good luck to them.
Meanwhile back at the madhouse that UK parliament has become, a casting vote from the Speaker has allowed a bill to go forward that might put things back into reality. Ooh, vote happening now!
Cooper bill (delaying Brexit) passes 315 to 310.
ETA more correctly preventing a “no deal” Brexit.
Where did you get that from?
dazz,
Wikipedia, where else!
Doesn’t make sense. Try this with google translator https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sublevaci%C3%B3n_de_Catalu%C3%B1a
Spain didn’t even exist back then. I know, I’m nitpicking there but what actually happened can’t be summarized as spain “invaded and subjugated” catalonia by any stretch of the imagination
dazz,
Maybe that was a bit over the top. I’m watching the Brexit debate at the moment so I’m multitasking, not a job I’m skilled at according to Mrs F. Will look at your link later. I also did not know about the Reapers’ War which I must read up on, too.
310 want no deal? My flabber has rarely been so gasted.
I should probably stop listening to the news. My kids (Remainers) have proposed a moratorium on all Brexit conversations! I was yelling at Gove on the radio last night. I was the only one in the car – don’t know if that makes it better or worse! But if I hear one more Tory, who couldn’t give a stuff about the Common Herd, invoking their support by regurgitating that stupid ‘17.4 million’ catchphrase, I may turn militant … and as for the Left … mutter … 😃
Didn’t Juncker say that there would be no more delays beyond April 12th?
I think, rather, that a fair number of those 310 wish to keep ‘no deal’ on the table in order to get their compromise of choice through via brinkmanship and fear.
Brinkmanship, fear, and an almost fanatical dedication….
I’ll come in again.
If ‘no deal’ were truly off the table (roll on 10 p.m….) then most of the deals on offer would be in very poor health and ‘revoke’ or ‘People’s Vote’ would be contenders.
It’s a game of ‘chicken’, is all.
JM very ignorant O
Unless there was a substantial change that needed time for consideration. UK can still revoke unilaterally before the 12th, though I doubt anyone has the bottle for that.
There would have to be a damned good reason – e.g. public vote on the options or GE. Touchingly, the UK thinks it has a wide range of choices.
walto,
Forgot to thank you for posting that article. Loved it
Corbyn has raised the possibility of a popular vote, having (finally) been consulted by May. But May will not shift on that. So she can bring a ‘respect the referendum’ vote back for a 4th time in a few weeks, but a vote 3 years after the first on real options rather than phantoms … that, we can’t have. More than the Europe issue itself, it’s this ill-conceived view of democracy that I can’t stomach. Unfortunately, ‘the people’ are buying into this fiction wholesale. My Facebook is awash with angry memes about 17.4 million people being ‘stabbed in the back’. Try being a Remainer, missus, I refrain from saying!
dazz,
NP.
I think it’s interesting too, but I wish Miller didn’t stop just before getting to the grist. I’ve seen some other stuff by him do that too…..
Allan Miller,
Do they think that vote can be overturned in 2025?
If you mean the 2016 referendum, it wasn’t binding on government. There’s a possible chance of the final Brexit deal, if ever there is one decided and agreed with the EU, being put to a referendum against remaining in the EU. Opinion polls indicate a remain vote is the most likely outcome.
On the other hand if you mean an election for UK government, according to the new fixed term law, it is due to happen in 2022
Not sure what you mean. But, there is always a possibility of a position being overturned. You’d kind of hope so.
Yeah, I get that a lot 😉
And here we go…
Rejected 304 to 313 at the
third readingcommittee stage*! Back to insanity!ETA*
ETA2 Oops copied error from Guardian live stream. That vote was just on an amendment. Vote on bill still to come.
Alan Fox,
There was a vote on having more indicative votes split 310-310 … the Speaker cast a deciding vote against. If it was an ant farm, I’d be enjoying the spectacle. But I have to live in it!
This the body Brexiters want to repatriate powers to …
Allan Miller,
Unfair to ants!
Oh, there are more votes on amendments before the vote on the bill itself. That vote expected around 1.00 am my time. Off to bed.
I discovered, reading an Irish Times piece, that there is a Rue Jo Cox in Burgundy.
Assassinée pour ses convictions.
That brought a tear to my eye, of sadness and outrage – too controversial to do here?
Which is ironic in itself; one of the commonest memes in all of this has been to post pictures of crying babies in belittlement of a perfectly legitimate political opinion. And yet they are mystified as to why they are getting ‘push-back’ from Remainers … perhaps if we say ‘get over it’ again? Why are they not getting over it; I told them, like, 10 times! It’s a bizarre, politically naive, approach to building a brave future for a whole nation.
In the highly unlikely event that Brexit gets canned, or disappointingly watered-down, I have my crying baby pictures all ready to go 😉
Here are ten views on what would be most democratic:
https://iai.tv/articles/what-is-the-most-democratic-way-to-solve-the-brexit-crisis-auid-1225
walto,
Very interesting, thanks – I’ve made most of these points at various times over the last 3 years, so found myself nodding in vigorous agreement with all but the two who insist that there is no democratic alternative to leaving. Both invoke the ridiculous ‘85% of MPs were returned on a Brexit manifesto’ statistic. All that represents is the two Party leaders agreeing that the referendum must be ‘respected’ – ie, simply a proxy for the same 51.9% ref result, that could simply be quoted directly. Support for Brexit could have completely evaporated as a percentage; but 85% of MPs would still be Labour or Conservative. The Labour manifesto was, indeed, rejected, so they are under no obligation to implement it!
As to the term ‘Project Fear’ invoked by Peter Ramsay … this was a PR masterstroke for Leave. Every single potential negative consequence can be summarily dismissed by that glib phrase. The corollary is that there is not even one single possible negative consequence, a remarkable fact, if it were true, for an effective upending of 43 years of integration. It’s disappointing when the less educated utter it; even more so coming from a professor. Committed Brexiters come across as cultists reciting a catechism.
Allan Miller,
But the clock is ticking, deadlines approaching… We’re all doomed. Have you been watching the House of Lords debate? Like the Night of the Living Dead.
ETA Brexit bad for your health.
Exactly. Anyone who thought that could (or should) be undone in a moment has less brain power than Donald Trump.
ETA clarity
Alan Fox,
I’d certainly admit to obsession. There are so many threads to it, it is fascinating. But, I’m struggling to concentrate on my job, which needs a lot of mental focus. 😃
My son’s radio goes off at 6am. It starts loud, then quietens. It’s always the news headlines, and I count how many words it takes before the word ‘Brexit’ is uttered. It’s never many!
Alan Fox,
Interesting perspective in the Independent – which is anything but, of course; even though I find their viewpoint congenial, I also find them manipulative.
A long delay creates a conundrum. Just how long can a narrow vote be considered decisive? The answer is proportional to one’s enthusiasm for the result, of course. I wrote a letter to my local paper on this point. The editor contacted me, unusually, to ask if it was OK for the following week, since it had missed the deadline for this. He was emphasising the publication date: April 11th.
Allan Miller, Thanks for the link. Nothing would surprise me any more. I mean, Karen Bradley?
I see we’re not the only ones sufferring from Brexit depression.
Allan Miller,
Here, it’s “Trump”–I haven’t exhaled in three years.