Sandbox (4)

Sometimes very active discussions about peripheral issues overwhelm a thread, so this is a permanent home for those conversations.

I’ve opened a new “Sandbox” thread as a post as the new “ignore commenter” plug-in only works on threads started as posts.

6,130 thoughts on “Sandbox (4)

  1. phoodoo: Right, it’s one reason they fucked up so bad.

    Most republicans don’t think so:

    A majority of Republicans surveyed in a national poll believe the number of deaths from the coronavirus is “acceptable,” and hold positive views of the US response to the pandemic.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-deaths-republicans-democrats-poll-a9684381.html

    They are happy with the government they voted in, they are happy with the government’s response to the virus. They don’t think they have fucked up at all.

    phoodoo: Catastrophic clusterfuck.

    Or acceptable response, depending on your point of view. The people are happy with the government they voted in. You suddenly know better then those people do you?

  2. OMagain:
    Or acceptable response, depending on your point of view. The people are happy with the government they voted in. You suddenly know better then those people do you?

    Polls like this have produced some interesting results. It seems voters who identify as Republican are perfectly willing to believe anything Trump says. If he says the world is flat, the sun rises in the west and the moon is made of cheese, a majority of Republican voters will agree. Trump himself said it best: He could shoot someone on 5th avenue and wouldn’t lose a single vote.

    I can’t say we “know better” than Republican voters, because if they know anything at all, it’s not obvious. But outside the echo chamber, we see that most independents voted for Trump in 2016, and the polls say most of them oppose him now. If Trump wins, it won’t be done honestly, not that Republican voters would ever believe it, regardless of any possible evidence.

  3. It appears there may be one confirmed case of a person being infected a second time, by a variant strain. Asymptomatic.

    The Italians asserted a while back that the disease has mutated to a less virulent form. No one paid much attention, but several European countries have rising cases and no associated deaths.

    One possible future involves the disease taking the usual course for diseases. Becoming less lethal and endemic.

    If it learns to spread without causing panic, the milder form will be more successful.

  4. petrushka:
    It appears there may be one confirmed case of a person being infected a second time, by a variant strain. Asymptomatic.

    Needs approaching with caution.

    The Italians asserted a while back that the disease has mutated to a less virulent form. No one paid much attention, but several European countries have rising cases and no associated deaths.

    Potentially explained by a different age profile, and/or the reduction in numbers of the most vulnerable.

    One possible future involves the disease taking the usual course for diseases. Becoming less lethal and endemic.

    That’s my forecast – not necessarily due to mutation of the virus, but due also to some reduction of severity due to our collective immune responses to prior infections. Isolated tribes die of the common cold; we don’t, for that reason.

  5. phoodoo:
    newton,

    No, you are talking about state laws, not public policies.

    I am talking about the ability to enforce a public health policy. Which is what I assume P was talking about.

    For instance, the orange idiot is thinking of fast-tracking an unproven British vaccine for the virus.

    Right, no doubt beneficial in some way to one of his donors.

    Well, how could that be if the states are in charge of public health?The states have to fast track it!

    Lots of Federal programs deal with health matters, FDA , warnings on cigarettes. For about the fifth time, Trump has broken about every norm, if his re-election would have benefitted from ordering the States to do something, he would have. He stupidly thought that the virus, killing citizens in only blue states , would help him blame the Democrats. So he stood by, and sometimes hindered , the effort to contain the virus citing it was the States responsibility. Trump is bad.

    That does not relieve the Governors of all responsibilities. That chose to reopen, under pressure, the bars, etc.

    I could name a 1000 other policies, but the bottom line is, during crisis such as pandemics, it is the federal government in charge.

    Remember, when Katrina flooded New Orleans, FEMA blamed the slow response on the late request by the Governor of Louisiana for aid. Bush paid a price for his “ distracted” response.

    A normal person would have used the power of the Federal Government to coordinate with the States a unified effort. Trump is not normal, but all the Republican Congressmen that ignored the disaster bear some responsibility as well.

    The US is not a rogue bunch of regions that can do whatever they want.

    Sometimes it is , as long as they do not violate the Constitution in the Court’s opinion

    During emergencies the federal government sets policy.

    Feds can set what they want, enforcing is another matter. States have certain autonomy.

  6. Allan Miller: That’s my forecast – not necessarily due to mutation of the virus, but due also to some reduction of severity due to our collective immune responses to prior infections. Isolated tribes die of the common cold; we don’t, for that reason.

    Generally speaking, how long does that take? We know in the 1918 flu, it took 2 years.

  7. newton: Generally speaking, how long does that take? We know in the 1918 flu, it took 2 years.

    There isn’t a general rule. I think (without detailed analysis) that we are doing more mitigation than in 1918. This would slow things down.

    There is a negative aspect to the distancing we are doing: it interferes with the normal circulation of pathogens that keeps our immune systems generally on top of whatever’s currently common. So when we do start to circulate more freely, I’d expect a rise in incidence and severity of these diseases.

    An interesting thing about 1918 is that the generation that caught it, and gained immunity, is almost all dead. Yet the pathogen, H1N1, still exists, it’s just not knocking us off at pandemic rates. It is an interesting question as to why that is, and more generally why newborns don’t succumb to their parent generation’s pandemics. My own guess is that the ‘low-level’ circulation I allude to in my previous paragraph is somehow involved.

  8. newton,

    Why are you going through this rambling, disjointed discussions of American law? It has almost nothing at all to do with the conversation. The bottom line is, the federal government can and does have the most power when it comes to dealing with a national health crisis. Not just in enforcing rules for public safety, but also in travel, in testing, in purchasing supplies, in allocating resources, and more than anything simply advising the states what to do. So I really don’t understand your point.

    Anyone trying to say, well the problem is a state one is just spouting bullshit. The states aren’t doing great because the federal government isn’t giving them any coherent message about what to do, but even worse the government run by this insouciant idiot is sending out a message to the citizens that they should just do whatever the hell they want. There is your problem. Its staring everyone right in the face. The country’s leader is saying, screw it, just make a mess, I am going to, you should too. The states are supposed to somehow clean up this mess?

    So you been the worse managed country in the world. Omagain is bragging that a lot of people don’t mind. They think it’s all great. Ignorance is bliss! They are unaware of how fucked up it is. If you are dumb enough nothing bothers you. Goldfish rarely care about much.

    But I don’t think most Americans think, oh this is going great. Super! Can I still buy a gun and eat fat, sugary food until I explode? I don’t think its most Americans. But its some. “Land of the Free, woohoo!! Fuck, this sucks…Its the libs fault! “

  9. phoodoo: Why are you going through this rambling, disjointed discussions of American law? It has almost nothing at all to do with the conversation.

    Because, when newton correctly noted that the responsibility for public health is shared between the States and the Federal government, you jumped in with this piece of idiocy:

    Its not even a marginally true, anymore than saying safety is a responsibility of the states, or economy is the responsibility if the states, or the environmental is a responsibility of the states, or civil rights is a responsibility of the states. Is the federal government’s only responsibility protection from foreign invasion? If we could just move that to the states we could close the white house down?

    YOU started this hare, picking a pointless argument with people who agree with you that the USA’s response has been appalling and the blame rests with Trump and his acolytes.

    phoodoo: Omagain is bragging that a lot of people don’t mind. They think it’s all great.

    Likewise, I took Omagain to be alluding to a point that you appear to have forgotten, that the USA is a democracy, and therefore politicians may cynically pander.

  10. DNA_Jock: Because, when newton correctly noted that the responsibility for public health is shared between the States and the Federal government

    The entire process of running america is shared by the federal government and the states. I think that is true of virtually any countries that has counties and towns, and districts and provinces. Its a dumb point.

    Were you going to share something informative which formally states that the responsibility for public health is the state and not the federal governments? Furthermore that is an even more absurd claim in the event of a national public health crisis-where the US government has all kinds of powers to implement health safety..

    So, calling it idiocy, you make actually back that up with some information. Maybe you can quickly start googling a health study funded by a state rather than the US government. It won’t help you any, but it will at least make it look you are doing something.

    Start here idiot:

    Administration for Children and Families
    AIDS.gov
    CDC National STD Hotline
    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
    Child Welfare Information Gateway
    Eldercare Locator
    Food and Drug Administration
    HHS-TIPS Fraud Hotline
    National Health Information Center
    National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
    National Institutes of Health
    National Runaway Safeline
    Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
    Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
    Health Resources and Services Administration
    Indian Health Service
    Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration
    Administration for Community Living
    Office of Minority Health
    National Cancer Institute
    President’s Council on Fitness, Sports and Nutrition
    Office for Civil Rights, Department of Health and Human Services

  11. Try reading for comprehension, phoodoo.
    Newton and I have been saying all along that the responsibility is shared; you disagreed on the 24th, but now concede that we were correct. “It’s a dumb point”, you note.
    Yes, indeed.

  12. DNA_Jock:
    Try reading for comprehension, phoodoo.
    Newton and I have been saying all along that the responsibility is shared; you disagreed on the 24th, but now concede that we were correct. “It’s a dumb point”, you note.
    Yes, indeed.

    This is a scope issue, in practice. Overall coordination, planning, logistics and resource allocation, needs to happen at the “highest” level; the scope is necessarily the entire nation. States might have proximate authority at a more detailed level, and there’s always a dispute as to which level to assign which responsibility, the battle between lack of coordination when national scope decisions aren’t made, and micromanagement when national decisions are too far from concrete cases.

    The point is that saying the process is shared between national and state governments isn’t enough. HOW authority and decision making is shared is where things get much more complicated. It’s a common Dilbert-type complaint that organizations sometimes give a person the responsibility for something but not the authority to manage it.

    For one example, the police power lies with the state (for domestic enforcement), but laws are often made (and interpreted) at the Federal level that state police must follow. So saying that our legal system is a federal OR a state system ignores the intricacies of the relationship.

  13. DNA_Jock,

    Wrong. This started with Petrushka saying :

    petrushka: In the United States, public health is the responsibility of the states. Always has been.

    , which is a completely untrue statement.

    Newton then followed this with :

    Yes, but not the sole responsibility.

    It’s not yes, but anything. It is the responsibility of the US government. Did you see my list? How many of those are state agencies?

    So its a totally false and misleading statement to say that public health is the responsibility of the states. To say yes to that is the equivalent of saying the US is doing a good job handling the crisis, and the response being, “Well, yes, but…”Or saying, the Cleveland Browns are one of the best professional football teams in history. You can’t say “Yes, but…” They are a football team, that is the only part of that that is true.

    There is no Yes.

  14. phoodoo: So its a totally false and misleading statement to say that public health is the responsibility of the states.

    Nope, not “totally false”, merely incomplete. It is the responsibility of the States. And also (thanks to the expansion of the Commerce Clause by the Supremes) the Federal Gov’t. It is shared. Like pretty much everything else. Which you yourself conceded.

    phoodoo: Did you see my list? How many of those are state agencies?

    That’s not a list….Now, that‘s a list:

    • Alabama Department of Public Health
    • Alaska Department of Health and Social Services
    • Arizona Department of Health Services
    • Arkansas Department of Health
    • California Department of Public Health
    • Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
    • Connecticut State Department of Public Health
    • Delaware Division of Public Health
    • District of Columbia Department of Health
    • Florida Department of Health
    • Georgia Department of Public Health
    • Hawaii State Department of Health
    • Idaho Department of Health and Welfare
    • Illinois Department of Public Health
    • Indiana State Department of Health
    • Iowa Department of Public Health
    • Kansas Department of Health and Environment
    • Kentucky Department for Public Health
    • Louisiana Department of Health
    • Maine Department of Health and Human Services
    • Maryland Department of Health
    • Massachusetts Department of Public Health
    • Michigan Department of Health and Human Services
    • Minnesota Department of Health
    • Mississippi State Department of Health
    • Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services
    • Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services
    • Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services
    • Nevada Division of Public and Behavioral Health
    • New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services
    • New Jersey Department of Health
    • New Mexico Department of Health
    • New York State Department of Health
    • North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services
    • North Dakota Department of Health
    • Ohio Department of Health
    • Oklahoma State Department of Health
    • Oregon Health Authority, Public Health Division
    • Pennsylvania Department of Health
    • Rhode Island Department of Health
    • South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control
    • South Dakota Department of Health
    • Tennessee Department of Health
    • Texas Department of State Health Services
    • Utah Department of Health
    • Vermont Department of Health
    • Virginia Department of Health
    • Washington State Department of Health
    • West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources, Bureau for Public Health
    • Wisconsin Department of Health Services
    • Wyoming Department of Health
    </Crocodile Dundee>

  15. DNA_Jock: It is the responsibility of the States.

    Bullshit.

    What is the rational behind saying it IS the responsibility of the states. Because each state has a health department? Do you realize these state health departments are accredited by the federal government? Why would they do that? It’s their responsibility right?

    Ever heard of Medicare? Medicaid? The Center For Disease Control? The Department of Health and Human Services? The Food and Drug Administration? The NIH? Health Resources and Services Administration?

    Why do you think we need those if public health is “the responsibility of the states” You think they take a back seat to local health departments?

    Look, I get it, you have been embarrassed by your asinine statements once again-so in typical fashion you will just continue to dig a hole, because it pains you so much to admit you are wrong again.

    But you are wrong again. Every state also has its own military department. Does that mean military defense is the responsibility of the states?

    Having departments and offices doesn’t make it THEIR responsibility. Jeff Bezos, the Board of Directors and the executive officers are responsible for running Amazon. Only an idiot would say that Amazon is the responsibility of its district managers. If its fucked up its their fault. That is what Petrushka claimed. That is what Newton said yes to. That is what you are saying yes to. You are all idiots.

  16. phoodoo:
    DNA_Jock,

    Wrong.This started with Petrushka saying :

    petrushka: In the United States, public health is the responsibility of the states. Always has been.

    which is a completely untrue statement.

    Actually it started here”

    Phoodoo:Oh for fuckssakes, now you are going to blame local officials for not doing what there is national government for.

    Newton: There is plenty of blame to go around, But only one short-fingered vulgarian controlled the power of the Federal Government. And he did worse than nothing.

    To which you responded with the thoughtful tone you are known for

    Blaming regional officials for the failure of the national government is the specialty of North Korea, and agent orange.

    To which Petruska’s comment was responding to, now we are caught up.

  17. newton,

    Right, if Amazon were to go bankrupt, you can’t say, well, its the district managers faults. I know we both agree on this. I just feel you gave Petrushka too much credit, as if he actually said something true.

  18. phoodoo: Bullshit.

    What is the rational behind saying it IS the responsibility of the states.Because each state has a health department?Do you realize these state health departments are accredited by the federal government?Why would they do that?It’s their responsibility right?

    It is voluntary.

    Ever heard of Medicare?Medicaid?

    Medical Insurance, did not exist until 1965

    The Center For Disease Control?The Department of Health and Human Services?The Food and Drug Administration?The NIH?Health Resources and Services Administration?

    You are making my point, it is not solely the responsibility of the state, I would mention the Commerce Clause but that relevance of that seemed to confuse you. The CDC makes recommendations . Remember when Trump claimed “absolute power to reopen “ the states pushed back?

    Why do you think we need those if public health is “the responsibility of the states”You think they take a back seat to local health departments?

    Within the State, yes. The federal government influences those agencies with grants for specific programs. Between the the US and other countries, no.

    Look, I get it, you have been embarrassed by your asinine statements once again-so in typical fashion you will just continue to dig a hole, because it pains you so much to admit you are wrong again.

    That projection is strong in this one.

    But you are wrong again.Every state also has its own military department.Does that mean military defense is the responsibility of the states?

    The States control the National Guard in local emergencies , the Feds in Federal missions.

    “Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution states that Congress shall have the power “to raise and support Armies …” and “to provide and maintain a Navy.” In addition, Congress must provide for the state militias when they are called to federal service.”

    Article I, Section 10, limits the power of the states. States may not enter into a treaty with a foreign nation; that power is given to the president, with the advice and consent of two-thirds of the Senate present.

  19. phoodoo:
    newton,

    Right, if Amazon were to go bankrupt, you can’t say, well, its the district managers faults.

    No, but you might say the district managers were to blame for district level decisions they made which hurt the company.

    I know we both agree on this.

    I agree Trump is awful on every level, just think you are letting his collaborators off too easy in your focus on him. Without them the trouble he could make would be much less.

    I just feel you gave Petrushka too much credit, as if he actually said something true.

    That is because it is true. For much of the history of the US . Only recently has the Federal Government expanded its reach. The Republicans have fought tooth and nail to kill the Affordable Care Act. Want to restrict Medicare and Medicaid . That is the whole point of cutting the payroll tax, putting the funding Of those too in the general fund. The failure of that strategy In the pandemic is the failure Republicanism Small Government.

    It turns out Americans don’t want to die needlessly in order to fund a larger military.

  20. S phoodoo:

    The entire process of running america is shared by the federal government and the states.

    I phoodoo:

    Its not even a marginally true, anymore than saying safety is a responsibility of the states, or economy is the responsibility if the states, or the environmental is a responsibility of the states, or civil rights is a responsibility of the states.

    Ooookay.
    I am wondering though, under what statutory authority does phoodoo think state governors have been instituting mask mandates, quarantine mandates, closing restaurants, bars, fitness centers, etc. etc. If it were not a State responsibility, why wouldn’t Trump simply overturn these mandates (like Governor Kemp did in Atlanta…)
    You know that Trump wanted to order all States to re-open. Why didn’t that happen? LOL

  21. DNA_Jock,

    Under what authority do you think district managers make everyday regarding who to hire to drive the Amazon vans to deliver packages? Does that mean you think Amazon is not the responsibility of Jeff Bezos and its executives?

    Ooooookay!

  22. DNA_Jock,

    Its lucky that the orange idiot is too stupid to hire you as a speech writer. Then during the RNC convention he could just tell the public who are concerned about covid, “Well, I just want to remind everyone listening tonight, public health IS the responsibility of the states! I wish them luck!” Then Idiot Junior and orange’s daughter with the great rack and not the fat one can jump up and down and yell, “Four more years! maga, maga!!”

    And Newton and Petrushka can nod in agreement, yea, well, that is true…

  23. phoodoo: Does that mean you think Amazon is not the responsibility of Jeff Bezos and its executives?

    So you’re telling me that the responsibility is, like, shared? That makes sense.
    🙂

  24. DNA_Jock,

    No I am telling you that Petrushkas claim was that the states are responsible for public health, and Newton said Yes, but, to this, and then you also said, yes, but to this.

    Now, if you want to go back and say, well, the states have to play a role in helping implement public policy, then this about the same amount of truth as saying Bezo’s managers have to help implement some of the companies policies. But that is QUITE different from saying “public health is the responsibility of the states.” And agreeing yes to that is stupid.

    Do you think in a stockholder meeting, Bezos can say, “Well, the stock has not performed very well this quarter, but since Amazon is the responsibility of our district managers, I don’t really know what can be done, other than you stockholders can go talk them if you like. ”

    Furthermore, do you think any President can stand in front of the American people and claim that “States are responsible for public health.”? And then the American public will agree and say, “Well, yes, that’s true, but the federal government plays a role.” I would love to see some President try that and see how it works. I would be happy to send a recommendation for you to the Orange Idiot as a staff advisor if you like.

  25. DNA_Jock: Does that mean you think Amazon is not the responsibility of Jeff Bezos and its executives?

    The executives-Like Jared Kushner, Steve Mnunchin, Mark Meadows, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Betsy Devos, Ben Carson … You know, the confederacy of dunces?

    Yea, that makes sense.

  26. phoodoo: Under what authority do you think district managers make everyday regarding who to hire to drive the Amazon vans to deliver packages? Does that mean you think Amazon is not the responsibility of Jeff Bezos and its executives?

    Governors are not the employees of the Federal Government, they are employees of the citizens of the state.

  27. phoodoo:
    DNA_Jock,

    Its lucky that the orange idiot is too stupid to hire you as a speech writer.Then during the RNC convention he could just tell the public who are concerned about covid, “Well, I just want to remind everyone listening tonight, public health IS the responsibility of the states! I wish them luck!”

    Old news, for starters:
    U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration has faced criticism over a shortfall in coronavirus testing capacity, said on Friday that individual states were responsible for developing testing capabilities.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-states/trump-u-s-states-not-federal-government-must-improve-testing-idUSKBN21Z3GM

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

    Try getting it yourselves’: Trump told governors they’re responsible for getting their own medical equipment to treat coronavirus patients.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-trump-told-governors-get-medical-equipment-on-their-own-2020-3

    Two thirds of conservative Republican would agree with that statement. And also they do not view the pandemic as a major threat as we approach 170,000 dead.

    Then Idiot Junior and orange’s daughter with the great rack and not the fat one can jump up and down and yell, “Four more years! maga, maga!!”

    Two things

    One: Ick
    Two: of course they would.

    And Newton and Petrushka can nod in agreement, yea, well, that is true…

    As well as the constitutional scholars.

  28. newton,

    And who are the mayors employees of? And who are the aldermen employees of? Maybe you should say that public health is the responsibility of aldermans.

  29. phoodoo:
    newton,

    And who are the mayors employees of? And who are the aldermen employees of?Maybe you should say that public health is the responsibility of aldermans.

    You could, but legally decisions made at that level can and have been overridden by the Governor of the State. Just like a Trump decision to reopen would be. The exception is those powers ,enumerated In the Constitution , of Federal Government.

    Can a Governor ask help from the Federal Government? Yes.

    Does the President have a responsibility to do everything in his legal power to coordinate and fight the pandemic? Yes

    Did Trump put his need to be re-elected above that responsibility? Oh yes.

  30. petrushka:
    I’m glad to see that we have a clear contrast in predictions for the next couple of months. But be sure we are talking about the same thing, I will specify that I expect the national new case rate and national death rate to decline to pre-April numbers.

    Looks like the Trump Administration has it thumb on the scales:

    “ A sudden change in federal guidelines on coronavirus testing came this week as a result of pressure from the upper ranks of the Trump administration, a federal health official close to the process tells CNN.

    “It’s coming from the top down,” the official said of the new directive from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
    The new guidelines raise the bar on who should get tested, advising that some people without symptoms probably don’t need it — even if they’ve been in close contact with an infected person.”

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/26/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-guidance/index.html

    One way to make the number of cases go down, narrow the testing criteria. People are still infected, can infect others but they just don’t show up in the data.

  31. newton,

    What do you mean, its the states responsibility, what does the federal government have to do with it…

    Right.

  32. phoodoo:
    newton,

    What do you mean, its the states responsibility, what does the federal government have to do with it…

    Exactly , they are guidelines for the States. We know Republican states will fall in line, which is their option. Any statistics on the number of cases will be distorted.

  33. newton,

    There are many ways the federal government could mandate testing. You are acting like they have no power at all over the states. That is just not true.

    Here in China, each village, each province each apartment complex and even each little shopping mall have slightly different policies about masks and about showing your heath status on the app. Many places don’t require a mask right now. Some cities you can fly into without quarantine, some you can’t. Some places you can go to the dentist, some you can’t. But that doesn’t mean it is the provinces that are responsible for the health of the citizens. It’s still a national issue.

    You are talking as if the US has no authority over the states on this matter. That is simply not true. That the idiot has used those powers appropriately doesn’t mean the federal government isn’t in charge of this epidemic. There could be federal mask mandates. There could be travel restrictions. The fact of the matter is the government is just incompetent, and that is the reason the national response is so poor. It’s not a lack of authority, it’s a lack of intelligence.

  34. newton,

    By the way, there hasn’t been a new case in the area that I live for months. It’s one of the safest places in the world to be right now. That is because of the effective government response. That is a fact.

    The US really has no excuse for their utterly disgraceful incompetence other than the leader is a worthless bag of bullshit .

  35. phoodoo: By the way, there hasn’t been a new case in the area that I live for months. It’s one of the safest places in the world to be right now.

    Hmm,
    So, so the specific area you are living has a direct affect on your likelihood of surviving the pandemic?

    Whereas other people, similar to you, who live in areas more affected by the pandemic have a lesser chance of survival?

    And people who have some sort of immunity to the virus could therefore live anywhere and not be affected?

    If only there was some way to quantify all this….

    It’s almost as if the environment or niche you find yourself in affects your, nah, never mind.

  36. phoodoo:
    newton,

    There are many ways the federal government could mandate testing.You are acting like they have no power at all over the states.That is just not true.

    Sorry , if I have been unclear. The Federal Government is not powerless when it comes to public health. The FDA ,EPA, USDA, and more, all control aspects of national health public health. The Federal Government funds programs , which can be used to leverage the States. Universities depend on Federal money. I agree, The Feds could pressure the States to do something , right now that something is decrease testing.

    Here in China,each village,each province each apartment complex and even each little shopping mall have slightly different policies about masks and about showing your heath status on the app.Many places don’t require a mask right now.Some cities you can fly into without quarantine,some you can’t.Some places you can go to the dentist,some you can’t.But that doesn’t mean it is the provinces that are responsible for the health of the citizens. It’s still a national issue.

    The US political system and history is not equivalent to China. Anything like the Tenth Amendment in China?

    You are talking as if the US has no authority over the states on this matter.That is simply not true.

    No ,I haven’t. Saying the States have jurisdiction on certain matters is not saying the Federal Government has no power over the States. Money is power. States cannot run deficits. Governors are motivated by political pressure.

    That the idiot has used those powers appropriately doesn’t mean the federal government isn’t in charge of thisepidemic.

    Providing leadership is what is expected , Trump has led in the wrong direction. He engages in only short term thinking and only values his interests.

    There could be federal mask mandates.There could be travel restrictions.

    And through what mechanism can the Federal Government force individual citizens to wear masks? Give a Trump new powers? There are travel restrictions in place. Remember the tension in the US is the pandemic vs the economy. How about China?

    The fact of the matter is the government is just incompetent, and that is the reason the national response is so poor.

    Certainly the Executive Branch reflects the incompetence of Trump , but lots of Government workers are doing their jobs at risk of their health.

    It’s not a lack of authority,it’s a lack of intelligence.

    Both things can be true. It is also a matter of priorities, for Trump, Trump is the priority. He cannot be a loser . 200,000 dead Americans, it is what it is.

  37. phoodoo:
    newton,

    By the way,there hasn’t been a new case in the area that I live for months. It’s one of the safest places in the world to be right now.That is because of the effectivegovernment response.That is a fact.

    And no doubt ,the trains also run on time.

    The US really has no excuse for their utterly disgraceful incompetence other than the leader is a worthless bag of bullshit .

    It appears 40% of Americans like bullshit. Even if kills them.

  38. Both Spain and France have huge resurgences in cases, but France currently has a case mortality rate of 0.6 percent, and Spain, 0.7 percent.

    Germany, 0.5 percent. Italy, 0.2 percent.

    New York city, 0.1 percent.

    Death count in all of these places is extremely low, and not rising.

    Italy is the country that first claimed the virus had mutated into something less virulent.

    Some of this could be ascribed to differences in testing rate. And some to differences in the age of the people getting the disease.

  39. My method for calculating CFR is to use seven day average numbers.

    Divide current daily average deaths by average daily new cases from three weeks ago.

    If the rates are changing rapidly, using a time lag makes a big difference.

    Edit. To add: UK CFR, 1.1 percent. Ten deaths a day, which is typical of all the places I’ve listed.

    Sweden: CFR, 0.7, average daily deaths, 1.

  40. New York city was the perfect storm. My kids live there, and I live in a commuter city.

    My son first started noticing suspicious cases in February. He had a suspicious illness in February, but testing was not available.

    NYC is a world travel, hub, densely populated, dependent on buses and subways, had tens of thousands of cases before anyone admitted there were any in the US, lacked knowledge of how to treat severe cases, and made horrendous decisions regarding nursing homes.

    At a time when there were already a hundred thousand cases, the NYC health commissioner told people to ignore the Xenophobic scare mongering, and attend the Chinese new year celebration. Nancy Pelosi did the same thing on the west coast.

    I am not ascribing evil to these decisions, but they were reckless.

  41. petrushka: If the rates are changing rapidly, using a time lag makes a big difference.

    Yeah, I tried to explain this to you already.
    All you have done is replace one misleading indicator with a slightly less misleading, but arbitrary, indicator. What, precisely, is your point?
    That we have gotten better at treating CoVid in the past five months? D’oh.
    Regarding CoVid’s evolution, we do know that it has evolved to become more infectious (S: D614G). To claim any reduction in morbidity or mortality, one would need to control for the ever-changing treatment paradigm. Bon chance
    I can’t help but wonder whether your invention of your “3-week delay” CFR was motivated by the truly embarrassing 6.7% CFR that Arizona is currently rocking:

  42. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/20/2005476117

    Although precision of our estimates is limited, we conclude that many more thousands of people were infected than were reported as cases by the time a national emergency was declared and that fewer than 10% of locally acquired, symptomatic infections in the United States may have been detected over a period of a month. This gap in surveillance during a critical phase of the epidemic resulted in a large, unobserved reservoir of infection in the United States by early March.

    ….

    The logic of our approach is, in essence, that there are bounds on the amount of exponential growth of new infections that can occur during the first few weeks after imported cases start appearing. Applying that logic to data on imported cases and local deaths in the United States through 12 March, we estimated that 108,689 (95% posterior predictive interval [95% PPI]: 1,023 to 14,182,310) infections occurred in the United States by this date. By comparing the model’s predictions of symptomatic infections with local cases reported over time, we obtained daily estimates of the proportion of symptomatic infections detected by surveillance. This revealed that detection of symptomatic infections decreased throughout February as exponential growth of infections outpaced increases in testing. Between 24 February and 12 March, we estimated an increase in detection of symptomatic infections, which was strongly correlated (median: 0.98; 95% PPI: 0.66 to 0.98) with increases in testing. These results suggest that testing was a major limiting factor in assessing the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during its initial invasion of the United States.

  43. I might add that at least 80 percent of the infections in the United States have been traced by RNA analysis to New York.

  44. petrushka: At a time when there were already a hundred thousand cases, the NYC health commissioner told people to ignore the Xenophobic scare mongering, and attend the Chinese new year celebration. Nancy Pelosi did the same thing on the west coast.

    Say what?
    It was not until March 26 that there were 84,091 confirmed cases in the USA.
    Chinese New Year was January 25th, two months earlier.

    Your attempts to distract from Trump’s appalling failure is noted, as is your racist (and incorrect) assumption that the USA’s epidemic was caused by travelers from China.

  45. Although the limitations of our analysis limit the precision of our results, we can nonetheless conclude that unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States by 12 March could have easily numbered in the hundreds of thousands (31.0% of simulations in our baseline analysis) and quite possibly in excess of 1 million (20.3% of simulations). This result, considered together with extensive presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (3, 4), suggests that the United States was well past the possibility of containment by 12 March.

  46. petrushka,

    You do realize that your text dumps of mathematical simulation modeling only serve to highlight the appalling consequences of Trump’s failures, especially re testing.
    Again, I really don’t mind if you want to mindlessly defend Trump, but pick some other topic — pussy-grabbing or the emoluments clause — and not the pandemic, where misinformation could cost lives.

  47. You are being a drama queen. The United States, even with the New York nursing home fiasco, has done better than Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, and only a tiny bit worse than France.

    If NY et al, had not sent infected people into nursing homes, the US would have fewer deaths per capita than France.

    It will be interesting for future historians to calculate how many people died of treatable cancers as a result of lockdowns, and how many people starved in third world countries as a result of economic collapse. I don’t have numbers, but I bet they’re high.

  48. New York City’s coronavirus outbreak grew so large by early March that the city became the primary source of new infections in the United States, new research reveals, as thousands of infected people traveled from the city and seeded outbreaks around the country.

    The research indicates that a wave of infections swept from New York City through much of the country before the city began setting social distancing limits to stop the growth. That helped to fuel outbreaks in Louisiana, Texas, Arizona and as far away as the West Coast.

    The findings are drawn from geneticists’ tracking signature mutations of the virus, travel histories of infected people and models of the outbreak by infectious disease experts.
    “We now have enough data to feel pretty confident that New York was the primary gateway for the rest of the country,” said Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health.

  49. I accept the possibility of being wrong, but I am not citing conspiracy theories, and I was using a justifiable method for calculating CFR long before you “corrected” me.

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