Sometimes very active discussions about peripheral issues overwhelm a thread, so this is a permanent home for those conversations.
I’ve opened a new “Sandbox” thread as a post as the new “ignore commenter” plug-in only works on threads started as posts.
Most republicans don’t think so:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-deaths-republicans-democrats-poll-a9684381.html
They are happy with the government they voted in, they are happy with the government’s response to the virus. They don’t think they have fucked up at all.
Or acceptable response, depending on your point of view. The people are happy with the government they voted in. You suddenly know better then those people do you?
Polls like this have produced some interesting results. It seems voters who identify as Republican are perfectly willing to believe anything Trump says. If he says the world is flat, the sun rises in the west and the moon is made of cheese, a majority of Republican voters will agree. Trump himself said it best: He could shoot someone on 5th avenue and wouldn’t lose a single vote.
I can’t say we “know better” than Republican voters, because if they know anything at all, it’s not obvious. But outside the echo chamber, we see that most independents voted for Trump in 2016, and the polls say most of them oppose him now. If Trump wins, it won’t be done honestly, not that Republican voters would ever believe it, regardless of any possible evidence.
It appears there may be one confirmed case of a person being infected a second time, by a variant strain. Asymptomatic.
The Italians asserted a while back that the disease has mutated to a less virulent form. No one paid much attention, but several European countries have rising cases and no associated deaths.
One possible future involves the disease taking the usual course for diseases. Becoming less lethal and endemic.
If it learns to spread without causing panic, the milder form will be more successful.
Needs approaching with caution.
Potentially explained by a different age profile, and/or the reduction in numbers of the most vulnerable.
That’s my forecast – not necessarily due to mutation of the virus, but due also to some reduction of severity due to our collective immune responses to prior infections. Isolated tribes die of the common cold; we don’t, for that reason.
I am talking about the ability to enforce a public health policy. Which is what I assume P was talking about.
Right, no doubt beneficial in some way to one of his donors.
Lots of Federal programs deal with health matters, FDA , warnings on cigarettes. For about the fifth time, Trump has broken about every norm, if his re-election would have benefitted from ordering the States to do something, he would have. He stupidly thought that the virus, killing citizens in only blue states , would help him blame the Democrats. So he stood by, and sometimes hindered , the effort to contain the virus citing it was the States responsibility. Trump is bad.
That does not relieve the Governors of all responsibilities. That chose to reopen, under pressure, the bars, etc.
Remember, when Katrina flooded New Orleans, FEMA blamed the slow response on the late request by the Governor of Louisiana for aid. Bush paid a price for his “ distracted” response.
A normal person would have used the power of the Federal Government to coordinate with the States a unified effort. Trump is not normal, but all the Republican Congressmen that ignored the disaster bear some responsibility as well.
Sometimes it is , as long as they do not violate the Constitution in the Court’s opinion
Feds can set what they want, enforcing is another matter. States have certain autonomy.
Generally speaking, how long does that take? We know in the 1918 flu, it took 2 years.
There isn’t a general rule. I think (without detailed analysis) that we are doing more mitigation than in 1918. This would slow things down.
There is a negative aspect to the distancing we are doing: it interferes with the normal circulation of pathogens that keeps our immune systems generally on top of whatever’s currently common. So when we do start to circulate more freely, I’d expect a rise in incidence and severity of these diseases.
An interesting thing about 1918 is that the generation that caught it, and gained immunity, is almost all dead. Yet the pathogen, H1N1, still exists, it’s just not knocking us off at pandemic rates. It is an interesting question as to why that is, and more generally why newborns don’t succumb to their parent generation’s pandemics. My own guess is that the ‘low-level’ circulation I allude to in my previous paragraph is somehow involved.
newton,
Why are you going through this rambling, disjointed discussions of American law? It has almost nothing at all to do with the conversation. The bottom line is, the federal government can and does have the most power when it comes to dealing with a national health crisis. Not just in enforcing rules for public safety, but also in travel, in testing, in purchasing supplies, in allocating resources, and more than anything simply advising the states what to do. So I really don’t understand your point.
Anyone trying to say, well the problem is a state one is just spouting bullshit. The states aren’t doing great because the federal government isn’t giving them any coherent message about what to do, but even worse the government run by this insouciant idiot is sending out a message to the citizens that they should just do whatever the hell they want. There is your problem. Its staring everyone right in the face. The country’s leader is saying, screw it, just make a mess, I am going to, you should too. The states are supposed to somehow clean up this mess?
So you been the worse managed country in the world. Omagain is bragging that a lot of people don’t mind. They think it’s all great. Ignorance is bliss! They are unaware of how fucked up it is. If you are dumb enough nothing bothers you. Goldfish rarely care about much.
But I don’t think most Americans think, oh this is going great. Super! Can I still buy a gun and eat fat, sugary food until I explode? I don’t think its most Americans. But its some. “Land of the Free, woohoo!! Fuck, this sucks…Its the libs fault! “
Because, when newton correctly noted that the responsibility for public health is shared between the States and the Federal government, you jumped in with this piece of idiocy:
YOU started this hare, picking a pointless argument with people who agree with you that the USA’s response has been appalling and the blame rests with Trump and his acolytes.
Likewise, I took Omagain to be alluding to a point that you appear to have forgotten, that the USA is a democracy, and therefore politicians may cynically pander.
The entire process of running america is shared by the federal government and the states. I think that is true of virtually any countries that has counties and towns, and districts and provinces. Its a dumb point.
Were you going to share something informative which formally states that the responsibility for public health is the state and not the federal governments? Furthermore that is an even more absurd claim in the event of a national public health crisis-where the US government has all kinds of powers to implement health safety..
So, calling it idiocy, you make actually back that up with some information. Maybe you can quickly start googling a health study funded by a state rather than the US government. It won’t help you any, but it will at least make it look you are doing something.
Start here idiot:
Administration for Children and Families
AIDS.gov
CDC National STD Hotline
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Child Welfare Information Gateway
Eldercare Locator
Food and Drug Administration
HHS-TIPS Fraud Hotline
National Health Information Center
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
National Institutes of Health
National Runaway Safeline
Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
Health Resources and Services Administration
Indian Health Service
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration
Administration for Community Living
Office of Minority Health
National Cancer Institute
President’s Council on Fitness, Sports and Nutrition
Office for Civil Rights, Department of Health and Human Services
Try reading for comprehension, phoodoo.
Newton and I have been saying all along that the responsibility is shared; you disagreed on the 24th, but now concede that we were correct. “It’s a dumb point”, you note.
Yes, indeed.
This is a scope issue, in practice. Overall coordination, planning, logistics and resource allocation, needs to happen at the “highest” level; the scope is necessarily the entire nation. States might have proximate authority at a more detailed level, and there’s always a dispute as to which level to assign which responsibility, the battle between lack of coordination when national scope decisions aren’t made, and micromanagement when national decisions are too far from concrete cases.
The point is that saying the process is shared between national and state governments isn’t enough. HOW authority and decision making is shared is where things get much more complicated. It’s a common Dilbert-type complaint that organizations sometimes give a person the responsibility for something but not the authority to manage it.
For one example, the police power lies with the state (for domestic enforcement), but laws are often made (and interpreted) at the Federal level that state police must follow. So saying that our legal system is a federal OR a state system ignores the intricacies of the relationship.
DNA_Jock,
Wrong. This started with Petrushka saying :
, which is a completely untrue statement.
Newton then followed this with :
It’s not yes, but anything. It is the responsibility of the US government. Did you see my list? How many of those are state agencies?
So its a totally false and misleading statement to say that public health is the responsibility of the states. To say yes to that is the equivalent of saying the US is doing a good job handling the crisis, and the response being, “Well, yes, but…”Or saying, the Cleveland Browns are one of the best professional football teams in history. You can’t say “Yes, but…” They are a football team, that is the only part of that that is true.
There is no Yes.
Nope, not “totally false”, merely incomplete. It is the responsibility of the States. And also (thanks to the expansion of the Commerce Clause by the Supremes) the Federal Gov’t. It is shared. Like pretty much everything else. Which you yourself conceded.
That’s not a list….Now, that‘s a list:
• Alabama Department of Public Health
• Alaska Department of Health and Social Services
• Arizona Department of Health Services
• Arkansas Department of Health
• California Department of Public Health
• Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
• Connecticut State Department of Public Health
• Delaware Division of Public Health
• District of Columbia Department of Health
• Florida Department of Health
• Georgia Department of Public Health
• Hawaii State Department of Health
• Idaho Department of Health and Welfare
• Illinois Department of Public Health
• Indiana State Department of Health
• Iowa Department of Public Health
• Kansas Department of Health and Environment
• Kentucky Department for Public Health
• Louisiana Department of Health
• Maine Department of Health and Human Services
• Maryland Department of Health
• Massachusetts Department of Public Health
• Michigan Department of Health and Human Services
• Minnesota Department of Health
• Mississippi State Department of Health
• Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services
• Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services
• Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services
• Nevada Division of Public and Behavioral Health
• New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services
• New Jersey Department of Health
• New Mexico Department of Health
• New York State Department of Health
• North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services
• North Dakota Department of Health
• Ohio Department of Health
• Oklahoma State Department of Health
• Oregon Health Authority, Public Health Division
• Pennsylvania Department of Health
• Rhode Island Department of Health
• South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control
• South Dakota Department of Health
• Tennessee Department of Health
• Texas Department of State Health Services
• Utah Department of Health
• Vermont Department of Health
• Virginia Department of Health
• Washington State Department of Health
• West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources, Bureau for Public Health
• Wisconsin Department of Health Services
• Wyoming Department of Health
</Crocodile Dundee>
Bullshit.
What is the rational behind saying it IS the responsibility of the states. Because each state has a health department? Do you realize these state health departments are accredited by the federal government? Why would they do that? It’s their responsibility right?
Ever heard of Medicare? Medicaid? The Center For Disease Control? The Department of Health and Human Services? The Food and Drug Administration? The NIH? Health Resources and Services Administration?
Why do you think we need those if public health is “the responsibility of the states” You think they take a back seat to local health departments?
Look, I get it, you have been embarrassed by your asinine statements once again-so in typical fashion you will just continue to dig a hole, because it pains you so much to admit you are wrong again.
But you are wrong again. Every state also has its own military department. Does that mean military defense is the responsibility of the states?
Having departments and offices doesn’t make it THEIR responsibility. Jeff Bezos, the Board of Directors and the executive officers are responsible for running Amazon. Only an idiot would say that Amazon is the responsibility of its district managers. If its fucked up its their fault. That is what Petrushka claimed. That is what Newton said yes to. That is what you are saying yes to. You are all idiots.
Actually it started here”
Phoodoo:Oh for fuckssakes, now you are going to blame local officials for not doing what there is national government for.
Newton: There is plenty of blame to go around, But only one short-fingered vulgarian controlled the power of the Federal Government. And he did worse than nothing.
To which you responded with the thoughtful tone you are known for
Blaming regional officials for the failure of the national government is the specialty of North Korea, and agent orange.
To which Petruska’s comment was responding to, now we are caught up.
newton,
Right, if Amazon were to go bankrupt, you can’t say, well, its the district managers faults. I know we both agree on this. I just feel you gave Petrushka too much credit, as if he actually said something true.
It is voluntary.
Medical Insurance, did not exist until 1965
You are making my point, it is not solely the responsibility of the state, I would mention the Commerce Clause but that relevance of that seemed to confuse you. The CDC makes recommendations . Remember when Trump claimed “absolute power to reopen “ the states pushed back?
Within the State, yes. The federal government influences those agencies with grants for specific programs. Between the the US and other countries, no.
That projection is strong in this one.
The States control the National Guard in local emergencies , the Feds in Federal missions.
“Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution states that Congress shall have the power “to raise and support Armies …” and “to provide and maintain a Navy.” In addition, Congress must provide for the state militias when they are called to federal service.”
Article I, Section 10, limits the power of the states. States may not enter into a treaty with a foreign nation; that power is given to the president, with the advice and consent of two-thirds of the Senate present.
No, but you might say the district managers were to blame for district level decisions they made which hurt the company.
I agree Trump is awful on every level, just think you are letting his collaborators off too easy in your focus on him. Without them the trouble he could make would be much less.
That is because it is true. For much of the history of the US . Only recently has the Federal Government expanded its reach. The Republicans have fought tooth and nail to kill the Affordable Care Act. Want to restrict Medicare and Medicaid . That is the whole point of cutting the payroll tax, putting the funding Of those too in the general fund. The failure of that strategy In the pandemic is the failure Republicanism Small Government.
It turns out Americans don’t want to die needlessly in order to fund a larger military.
S phoodoo:
I phoodoo:
Ooookay.
I am wondering though, under what statutory authority does phoodoo think state governors have been instituting mask mandates, quarantine mandates, closing restaurants, bars, fitness centers, etc. etc. If it were not a State responsibility, why wouldn’t Trump simply overturn these mandates (like Governor Kemp did in Atlanta…)
You know that Trump wanted to order all States to re-open. Why didn’t that happen? LOL
DNA_Jock,
Under what authority do you think district managers make everyday regarding who to hire to drive the Amazon vans to deliver packages? Does that mean you think Amazon is not the responsibility of Jeff Bezos and its executives?
Ooooookay!
DNA_Jock,
Its lucky that the orange idiot is too stupid to hire you as a speech writer. Then during the RNC convention he could just tell the public who are concerned about covid, “Well, I just want to remind everyone listening tonight, public health IS the responsibility of the states! I wish them luck!” Then Idiot Junior and orange’s daughter with the great rack and not the fat one can jump up and down and yell, “Four more years! maga, maga!!”
And Newton and Petrushka can nod in agreement, yea, well, that is true…
So you’re telling me that the responsibility is, like, shared? That makes sense.
🙂
DNA_Jock,
No I am telling you that Petrushkas claim was that the states are responsible for public health, and Newton said Yes, but, to this, and then you also said, yes, but to this.
Now, if you want to go back and say, well, the states have to play a role in helping implement public policy, then this about the same amount of truth as saying Bezo’s managers have to help implement some of the companies policies. But that is QUITE different from saying “public health is the responsibility of the states.” And agreeing yes to that is stupid.
Do you think in a stockholder meeting, Bezos can say, “Well, the stock has not performed very well this quarter, but since Amazon is the responsibility of our district managers, I don’t really know what can be done, other than you stockholders can go talk them if you like. ”
Furthermore, do you think any President can stand in front of the American people and claim that “States are responsible for public health.”? And then the American public will agree and say, “Well, yes, that’s true, but the federal government plays a role.” I would love to see some President try that and see how it works. I would be happy to send a recommendation for you to the Orange Idiot as a staff advisor if you like.
The executives-Like Jared Kushner, Steve Mnunchin, Mark Meadows, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Betsy Devos, Ben Carson … You know, the confederacy of dunces?
Yea, that makes sense.
Governors are not the employees of the Federal Government, they are employees of the citizens of the state.
Old news, for starters:
U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration has faced criticism over a shortfall in coronavirus testing capacity, said on Friday that individual states were responsible for developing testing capabilities.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-states/trump-u-s-states-not-federal-government-must-improve-testing-idUSKBN21Z3GM
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/
Try getting it yourselves’: Trump told governors they’re responsible for getting their own medical equipment to treat coronavirus patients.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-trump-told-governors-get-medical-equipment-on-their-own-2020-3
Two thirds of conservative Republican would agree with that statement. And also they do not view the pandemic as a major threat as we approach 170,000 dead.
Two things
One: Ick
Two: of course they would.
As well as the constitutional scholars.
newton,
And who are the mayors employees of? And who are the aldermen employees of? Maybe you should say that public health is the responsibility of aldermans.
You could, but legally decisions made at that level can and have been overridden by the Governor of the State. Just like a Trump decision to reopen would be. The exception is those powers ,enumerated In the Constitution , of Federal Government.
Can a Governor ask help from the Federal Government? Yes.
Does the President have a responsibility to do everything in his legal power to coordinate and fight the pandemic? Yes
Did Trump put his need to be re-elected above that responsibility? Oh yes.
Looks like the Trump Administration has it thumb on the scales:
“ A sudden change in federal guidelines on coronavirus testing came this week as a result of pressure from the upper ranks of the Trump administration, a federal health official close to the process tells CNN.
“It’s coming from the top down,” the official said of the new directive from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The new guidelines raise the bar on who should get tested, advising that some people without symptoms probably don’t need it — even if they’ve been in close contact with an infected person.”
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/26/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-guidance/index.html
One way to make the number of cases go down, narrow the testing criteria. People are still infected, can infect others but they just don’t show up in the data.
newton,
What do you mean, its the states responsibility, what does the federal government have to do with it…
Right.
Exactly , they are guidelines for the States. We know Republican states will fall in line, which is their option. Any statistics on the number of cases will be distorted.
newton,
There are many ways the federal government could mandate testing. You are acting like they have no power at all over the states. That is just not true.
Here in China, each village, each province each apartment complex and even each little shopping mall have slightly different policies about masks and about showing your heath status on the app. Many places don’t require a mask right now. Some cities you can fly into without quarantine, some you can’t. Some places you can go to the dentist, some you can’t. But that doesn’t mean it is the provinces that are responsible for the health of the citizens. It’s still a national issue.
You are talking as if the US has no authority over the states on this matter. That is simply not true. That the idiot has used those powers appropriately doesn’t mean the federal government isn’t in charge of this epidemic. There could be federal mask mandates. There could be travel restrictions. The fact of the matter is the government is just incompetent, and that is the reason the national response is so poor. It’s not a lack of authority, it’s a lack of intelligence.
newton,
By the way, there hasn’t been a new case in the area that I live for months. It’s one of the safest places in the world to be right now. That is because of the effective government response. That is a fact.
The US really has no excuse for their utterly disgraceful incompetence other than the leader is a worthless bag of bullshit .
Hmm,
So, so the specific area you are living has a direct affect on your likelihood of surviving the pandemic?
Whereas other people, similar to you, who live in areas more affected by the pandemic have a lesser chance of survival?
And people who have some sort of immunity to the virus could therefore live anywhere and not be affected?
If only there was some way to quantify all this….
It’s almost as if the environment or niche you find yourself in affects your, nah, never mind.
Sorry , if I have been unclear. The Federal Government is not powerless when it comes to public health. The FDA ,EPA, USDA, and more, all control aspects of national health public health. The Federal Government funds programs , which can be used to leverage the States. Universities depend on Federal money. I agree, The Feds could pressure the States to do something , right now that something is decrease testing.
The US political system and history is not equivalent to China. Anything like the Tenth Amendment in China?
No ,I haven’t. Saying the States have jurisdiction on certain matters is not saying the Federal Government has no power over the States. Money is power. States cannot run deficits. Governors are motivated by political pressure.
Providing leadership is what is expected , Trump has led in the wrong direction. He engages in only short term thinking and only values his interests.
And through what mechanism can the Federal Government force individual citizens to wear masks? Give a Trump new powers? There are travel restrictions in place. Remember the tension in the US is the pandemic vs the economy. How about China?
Certainly the Executive Branch reflects the incompetence of Trump , but lots of Government workers are doing their jobs at risk of their health.
Both things can be true. It is also a matter of priorities, for Trump, Trump is the priority. He cannot be a loser . 200,000 dead Americans, it is what it is.
And no doubt ,the trains also run on time.
It appears 40% of Americans like bullshit. Even if kills them.
Both Spain and France have huge resurgences in cases, but France currently has a case mortality rate of 0.6 percent, and Spain, 0.7 percent.
Germany, 0.5 percent. Italy, 0.2 percent.
New York city, 0.1 percent.
Death count in all of these places is extremely low, and not rising.
Italy is the country that first claimed the virus had mutated into something less virulent.
Some of this could be ascribed to differences in testing rate. And some to differences in the age of the people getting the disease.
My method for calculating CFR is to use seven day average numbers.
Divide current daily average deaths by average daily new cases from three weeks ago.
If the rates are changing rapidly, using a time lag makes a big difference.
Edit. To add: UK CFR, 1.1 percent. Ten deaths a day, which is typical of all the places I’ve listed.
Sweden: CFR, 0.7, average daily deaths, 1.
New York city was the perfect storm. My kids live there, and I live in a commuter city.
My son first started noticing suspicious cases in February. He had a suspicious illness in February, but testing was not available.
NYC is a world travel, hub, densely populated, dependent on buses and subways, had tens of thousands of cases before anyone admitted there were any in the US, lacked knowledge of how to treat severe cases, and made horrendous decisions regarding nursing homes.
At a time when there were already a hundred thousand cases, the NYC health commissioner told people to ignore the Xenophobic scare mongering, and attend the Chinese new year celebration. Nancy Pelosi did the same thing on the west coast.
I am not ascribing evil to these decisions, but they were reckless.
Yeah, I tried to explain this to you already.
All you have done is replace one misleading indicator with a slightly less misleading, but arbitrary, indicator. What, precisely, is your point?
That we have gotten better at treating CoVid in the past five months? D’oh.
Regarding CoVid’s evolution, we do know that it has evolved to become more infectious (S: D614G). To claim any reduction in morbidity or mortality, one would need to control for the ever-changing treatment paradigm. Bon chance…
I can’t help but wonder whether your invention of your “3-week delay” CFR was motivated by the truly embarrassing 6.7% CFR that Arizona is currently rocking:
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/20/2005476117
I might add that at least 80 percent of the infections in the United States have been traced by RNA analysis to New York.
Say what?
It was not until March 26 that there were 84,091 confirmed cases in the USA.
Chinese New Year was January 25th, two months earlier.
Your attempts to distract from Trump’s appalling failure is noted, as is your racist (and incorrect) assumption that the USA’s epidemic was caused by travelers from China.
This too is complete and utter rubbish.
petrushka,
You do realize that your text dumps of mathematical simulation modeling only serve to highlight the appalling consequences of Trump’s failures, especially re testing.
Again, I really don’t mind if you want to mindlessly defend Trump, but pick some other topic — pussy-grabbing or the emoluments clause — and not the pandemic, where misinformation could cost lives.
You are being a drama queen. The United States, even with the New York nursing home fiasco, has done better than Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, and only a tiny bit worse than France.
If NY et al, had not sent infected people into nursing homes, the US would have fewer deaths per capita than France.
It will be interesting for future historians to calculate how many people died of treatable cancers as a result of lockdowns, and how many people starved in third world countries as a result of economic collapse. I don’t have numbers, but I bet they’re high.
I accept the possibility of being wrong, but I am not citing conspiracy theories, and I was using a justifiable method for calculating CFR long before you “corrected” me.