Sometimes very active discussions about peripheral issues overwhelm a thread, so this is a permanent home for those conversations.
I’ve opened a new “Sandbox” thread as a post as the new “ignore commenter” plug-in only works on threads started as posts.
It’s exactly Hillary all over again.
The only good news is the baby turnip’s psychotic flaws are even more evident now.
Ooooh. Do you have any data to back up your wonderful, wishful assertions?
Sadly, neither Booker nor Harris nor Yang made the cut into the YouGov head-to-head’s that I could find, but Sanders > Warren > Biden = Klobuchar > Buttegieg > Bloomberg, with no Condorcet paradoxes whatsoever. Given that Bernie, all the way on the left, is less likely to be a victim of vote-splitting, you SHOULD be asking why HE is not the nominee. Or if you want to claim that vote-splitting damaged a candidate, then Warren is the poster child.
But it has nothing to do with “your” preferred candidate. No sirree.
Phoodoo was a big Yang fan for a while.
newton,
And he is still my preferred candidate. Which is totally irrelevant to who would have the broadest appeal, but Jock is struggling with this concept rather mightily.
He asks why I don’t think Bernie should be the nominee, or Warren. That shows how little he gets it. If you took all of the Sanders voters and said you can’t have him or Warren who would you choose. They obviously wouldn’t jump to Biden. So the question is who would they choose.
If ones awareness of American politics is so poor that they believe Sanders or Warren voters would next choose Biden, well they must have been asleep for the past decade.
Yes, my first choice would be Yang. But I know enough to realize that Booker is an even more universal candidate.
So ranked voting? What is it? Proportional representation, transferable vote, multiple choice, successive elimination? Eliminate the money, I say.
Alan Fox,
I am using it as a suggestion for overcoming the problems we see with candidates like Biden. As the poll Jock referenced showed, Biden would not be favored over either Bernie Sanders OR Elizabeth Warren in a head to head match up. I am pretty confident that this would also apply to Booker, Yang or Harris. I hadn’t even seen the poll Jock showed but my instincts were correct that Biden is less universal than many other candidates (I wonder why Jock didn’t acknowledge I was right, hmmm).
Biden only appeals to one small segment of the voters. The point is that he is alone on that segment, so it makes it appear he is the leading choice. But that’s just not true. Its just that other voters like Sanders or Yang or Warren, all split the votes amongst themselves. But by themselves they are still better candidates than Biden. So its ends up with Biden as the nominee, even though more people say they would prefer Sanders to Biden. Or Warren to Biden, Or, pretty much anyone to Biden, actually, (except for closet republican Bloomberg).
That’s a bad outcome for the democrats.
So cut out the delegate system and choose the candidate by a simple vote of party members? Who gets to vote? How do you decide who is entitled to a party member vote? UK political parties have ended up with some disastrous candidates claiming to use democratic processes. (Michael Foot, Ed Milliband, Boris Johnson*.)
*Yes, he won an election. That was what was disastrous! 🙁
I think we have established who has the widest appeal among Democratic voters, Biden. They had an election.
I get that. What makes you think Cory Booker or Andrew Yang is that person?
They might if they viewed Biden as the the practical choice, a majority of Democratic voters did exactly that.
I voted for Warren, I would have ranked Biden second. In my estimation he has the best chance to beat Trump. He has the broadest appeal, as demonstrated by receiving the most votes. I think people did the ranking system in their head.
Not enough to generate much traction in the actual primary.
But he’s so old! 78 in November. Younger than Sanders and no apparent health problem but even so.
ETA Reagan was only 77 when he left office.
newton,
Your understanding is very lacking.
Do you think the turnip is the most universally liked republican, and he was also that in the last election?
If Biden was the most universally liked, why in a head to match up with Sanders does he lose? Why in a head to head match up with Warren does he lose?
46% of the Democratic primary voters who chose to go vote. 14,200,000 votes, Cory Booker and Andrew Yang combined had less the 200,000.
Seems true, math wise
Sanders, Warren, Yang combined had less votes than Biden.
Not in in the objective sense in getting the most votes
Well, they ought to vote. That is how democracy works.Just saying.
Bloomberg got 8%, about the same as Warren. If those most of those voters would have gone to Biden, if we are doing speculation, roughly 50% of voters would make Biden first choice.No ranked voting system would result in the candidate with a more than half the first place votes not winning. Just doesn’t make sense.
That is certainly one possibility.
Among he core base he was, he was rabidly well liked. The rest made a practical calculation. That is politics, fear and greed can more useful emotions.
Going to have to see that evidence.
Probably butting in where I’m not wanted, but I see the problem for the democrats not so much finding a candidate as finding ideas and policies that can attract voters.
The Sanders/Biden divide is no so much about charisma as it is about policy.
I will venture into the current troubled waters.
No one wants the police to kill innocent people. At least no one has included this sentiment in a political platform. In fact, killings by police started declining in the Obama years and have continued to decline. And the reduction is not trivial. It would be a nice trend to continue.
The related issue I will call driving while black. A metaphor signifying the perception that police target blacks more often than whites for the offense of existing. Interestingly, in some Asian countries, the police are extremely proactive toward everyone. So one solution is for police to hassle everyone. I don’t think that would sell.
My point is that democrats have identified a bunch of sore points without being very specific about what they would do. If cutting police budgets would make them better, maybe it would work in education. How is it supposed to work?
One more related thought:
To the extent that democrats are united on policy, the policies are unlikely to win elections. This might be a bad year to promote open borders, hopping back in bed with China, and higher taxes.
These things come and go, but this looks like a go year.
The polls are all over the place, so I won’t make predictions. But I have suspicions.
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/02/18/democrat-head-to-head-poll
Now what?
The only problem that I see with Biden, is that he is too old. Warren and Sanders are also too old.
I would not vote for Yang. Yes, I like his proposed policies. But the question remains — can he actually succeed in implementing those policies?
Choosing a president is a complicated balancing act. And different voters have different reasons for their choices. Biden does not have nearly as many negatives as you think. Sanders and Warren both have more negatives than you recognize.
For what it’s worth, I note that in Senatorial primaries across the country, the Democratic candidate further to the left is being soundly trounced by candidates more to the center. I don’t think there is a single exception. In primaries yet to be held, I note that the more centrist candidate is winning the war for donations. For some reason.
Not at all
Right now, not Trump and centrism is a pretty good policy.
I agree, Americans are conditioned to dislike socialism, though like what it does.
How about people who are not so innocent but are of a certain group for sake of law and order. After all, people dying to help commerce is now accepted and advocated by one party.
Statistically,I believe that is a fact, but it may be only vehicular prejudice.
Nope, generally best to hassle those least likely to have access to power.
I think thinking is it might reduce the number of exotic toys police have access to. Strange that conservatives hate unions yet like police unions.
Does anyone ask about value for money? How much serious crime gets solved or even investigated? Crime rates are falling and could fall faster if there was a sensible effort at decriminalisation of drugs such as cannabis. What are the armoured cars needed for?
Thing is Obama deported lots of people , what Democrats have a problem with is the hypocrisy of border policy and caging children up. Not too fond of the graft going on with the wall construction either.
Republican were the free traders, right now Trump is looking for an enemy to help his domestic woes, China ,likewise , feels the same. If in the future Trump can help himself all this China fuss will disappear when he makes the greatest of all time trade deal, and Fox will announce we have always been at war with Oceania.
Remember Democrats wanted the TPP to offset the power of China.
Wonder how they will feel about cuts to the safety net in order to pay for the stimulus and tax cut driven deficits.
I think you are correct as to “what the thinking is”.
The problem with thinking “defund the police so that they cannot afford all those exotic toys” is that too many of the most abuse-inciting toys were acquired for free (shipping and handling costs only) from the 1033 program.
Ironically, a “defund” campaign is just another form of escalation; and escalation is the tactic that has been demonstrated time and time again to be ineffective. So it is unlikely to be a productive approach.
Might be a good thing to throttle back on the military budget as well, times are going to be tough when the bills come due for the pandemic. Certainly there will be calls for the old people who failed to sacrifice themselves to the god of commerce to quit being so extravagant.
How so?
Plenty of police in Colorado, decriminalization reduces the load on the courts and prisons.
Agreed.
Two different reasons.
1) The goal, I assume, is to persuade police chiefs to adopt less militaristic and more empathetic approaches to their work. Including an “oh and we are cutting your budget by 25%” in the initial conversation is unlikely to help matters. Historically, patrol cars replaced beat cops as a cost-saving measure, and any efforts to return to community policing have required additional budget. Cut their budgets, and they aren’t going to magically decide to fire the ‘bad apples’; rather, they will rely on the technological and militaristic approaches far more.
2) “Let’s defund the police” hands the Law and Order crowd the best talking point EVAH. It is, electorally speaking, the most massive own goal I can think of.
newton,
Why did you ask for evidence that Sanders or Warren are more popular than Biden, and then when showed it you ignored it ? The only politician Biden seems to be more popular then, on the democratic side, is Michael Bloomberg.
Furthermore, why do you claim your first choice would be Warren, but then say you believe Biden has the best chance at beating turnip? You voted for someone you preferred, over the person you felt had the best chance, but your second choice would not be someone with policies similar to Warren, only AFTER Warren would you then vote for the person you supposedly believe has the best chance?
Quite illogical.
Once again, I point out that the jobs of running for office and holding office are very different. I think most people realize this at some level, because there’s been a lot of commentary about people having to choose between the candidate(s) they think would be best at BEING President, and the candidate(s) they think have the best chance of BECOMING President.
I personally think Biden, of all the initial Democrat candidates, has the best chance of beating Trump. Perhaps not by much, but the other candidates all had more disadvantages to overcome, primary among them being shunned by African American voters. On the other hand, there was a sizeable list of candidates I think would make better Presidents. I think executive experience (governor, mayor) is better training than legislative experience, and Biden has both. I just wish it didn’t always seem like his train of thought is about to jump the tracks.
Flint,
Why does he lose in polling to everyone but Bloomberg then?
Because he is everybody’s second choice. In a ranked voting system, where second choices count, he would win.
Let’s look at the data to support the claim “ If Biden was the most universally liked, why in a head to match up with Sanders does he lose?“
First, the question in the poll is “ if you had to chose between these candidates( Biden) and Bernie Sanders as the Democratic nominee, I would chose… Biden 44/ Bernie 48. So among these voters on Feb 12, week between the New Hampshire and Nevada primaries while Bernie was the front runner,
A month later the numbers are Biden 53/ Bernie 38 , so I say you were correct but are correct no longer.
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/03/11/biden-surges-over-sanders-pol
He didn’t on March 11, today he won in the actual voting.
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/03/11/biden-surges-over-sanders-pol
I did, and thank you. I have replied. You took a poll taken on Feb 11, a month later Biden was more popular by 53/ 38 . Biden won the nomination , the ultimate test.
Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada were helpful for Bernie , then came South Carolina and Alabama , Bernie failed to attract black voters, the narrative changed, Bernie’s weakness was exposed.
Biden blew out the rest of the field on Super Tuesday, all the remaining candidates dropped out except Bernie and Gabbard.
Yes , she was and I voted for her. She didn’t have a chance. And yes I do believe Biden has the best chance . He is an old ,straight ,not a socialist, white guy. As have been the vast majority of US Presidents. Nothing fancy.
And the other candidates did exactly the right thing, they did not drag the process on like Bernie did with Hillary and allow the Trump campaign exploit the divisions.
Yes, my vote did not count, Warren was too far back.
Both would nominate the correct flavor of Supreme Court Justice , both would support environmental issues, both would try to roll back some of the corporate largesse. The biggest difference is it would have been nice to see Trump lose to a woman. But that he loses is the critical part.
I think she would be the best President , I think Biden has the best chance to be elected. Since Biden was going to win Texas, my vote was meaningless to the outcome. For a Democrat in Texas , that is a fact of political life.
Quite practical, the greatest evil is Trump re-elected, any Democrat is superior to Trump except Gabbard. I would rather see Warren in the Senate if the helped the Dems swing the Senate.
That is why you try to put good people around him and give him the Senate and House. But first step you have to stop the bleeding. And you need a significant victory.
I agree on both counts. I doubt phoodoo will understand the nuance, sadly; he makes epic counter-factual claims about voter preferences.
For example: “Why does he lose in polling to everyone but Bloomberg then?”.
Poor Pete. 😮
newton,
You thought the same thing, just like a bunch of other total lacking in common sense and awareness of average public’s sentiments pollsters thought, about Hillary Clinton. She couldn’t beat the most flawed, most scandalous nominee in history. He made John Edwards and Gary Hart look like altruistic monastics.
The public only says they want Biden now because it’s inevitable. He is not the most popular by a long shot. Winning the primary is not at all the ultimate test. It’s a poor test. It’s I test that runs on name recognition, and an archaic voting system that primarily depends on who has the money lead early on. Anyone back in the pack moneywise early on has virtually no chance.
When the majority of the country count themselves as democrats, there is no excuse for them not winning much more than they do.
Right now even a large percent of republicans hate the turnip. The national interest is writing negative stories about him! That’s how much their side realizes what an idiot he is.
And it’s still close… Ridiculous.
phoodoo, Trouble is you have to work with what you have. Oust Trump and get the legal system out of the hands of people like Brett Kavanaugh.
And then fix the rigged voting system.
Alan Fox,
I don’t even mind Biden being president in the slightest. It will be a great, tremendous day if he wins. I would be thrilled.
It shouldn’t be close. It is.
What exactly are you referring to? Not a rhetorical question.
Florida got a black eye in 2000, and went to a paper ballot system that is really difficult to cheat. The counties that had it in 2000 were counted perfectly, and had no discrepancies in hand recounts. Many states use this now.
The other requirement is that all absentee ballots have to be counted by election day. This is to prevent going out after election day and harvesting just the number you need to flip a close election.
Voting systems need to be transparent to humans. That, is, paper and human readable. No sane person will trust electronic voting that does not produce human readable audit trails.
In an ideal world, you could have a ballot receipt that would verify your ballot was recorded. Not sure how to do that without the possibility of someone flocing you to reveal how you voted.
But the bottom line is the system must assume that everyone who touches the system at any point will cheat.
Alan Fox,
The other problem with the US primaries is the staggered state voting. It makes no sense at all. They start in Iowa, one of the most meaningless states in the country. Next it’s New Hampshire. Then south Carolina. By this time, the decisions have already mostly been made for the whole country. What in the world is that for ?
It makes the rest of the states voting a meaningless forgone conclusion, because guys get eliminated because they don’t do well in these few weird, unrepresentative states.
Why not have the whole country vote on the same day at least? It makes no sense whatsoever.
Not for a long time, but what is terrifying is Ginsberg replaced by a another Kavanaugh.
newton,
Very terrifying. If Biden wins I hope he adds four supreme justices to pay back the republicans for not allowing Obama to make his rightful appointment.
True ,I thought she would be the best President from the choices in 2016. And the most electable. Still think Bernie ,being a socialist of any flavor, is the kiss of death. Now or then and the rest of the field was hardly charismatic.
I was wrong, she got 3 million more votes but lost by 100,000 in the wrong places.Even more she didn’t help those running for Senate . I was right about Obama, wrong about Kerry and Gore, right about Bill Clinton. There are no guarantees . If Yang or Booker or Bernie had won the nomination I would support them . Not point out their defects.
But he was running as a Republican, his flaws were an advantage, and TV tough guy, arrogant ,authoritarian corrupt liar, birther, con man, it was a natural leap for a party that embraced Sarah Palin. A billionaire, corporate America fell in line ,And the evangelicals fell in line in order to be rewarded with Supremes. He was a political incorrect, racist, misogynist. Anti-intellectual The doppelgänger of Obama. And benefited from generous donations from Putin
Different times, Bill Clinton had a few scandals
That is a good thing, you think replacing Biden would do anything but guarantee Trump’s win? Come on.
Same could be said about Bernie at the time of your poll, it looked like his time. Warren looked like she might break through.
He doesn’t have to run faster than the bear, only Trump. He only has to be more popular with the general public than Trump, seen as a return to normalcy. Act like President , not a narcissistic asshole. He will never engender the cult like devotion of Trump’s hardcore. That is built on hate and fear of the other, Trump is the personification of that hate and fear.
Not the ultimate test but a necessary one.
Maybe , it has changed over the years, decreased to power of the elite. The Party allowed Bernie, not a Democrat , to run for the Democratic nomination. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Both Obama and Bill Clinton were underdogs.
When you look at the undecided voters, the gap between parties narrows and we live with the electoral college, the only reason Trump is President.
“I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.”
Will Rogers
Not sure how large, but the question is do they love tax cuts more than they hate Trump.
Right, stop me before I kill again. My feeling is they just want Trump’s policies without the Twitter. Trump is the product of their strategy, a strategy they will use again. Democrats cannot depend on Republicans to do the right thing
But love those Supremes and tax cuts.
Ginsburg and two conservatives would be nice.
I hear this young guy, Biden, is pretty sharp. And not at all corrupt. Don’t quote me on this, but the up and coming Clinton would make a nice VP too.
Seventy seven is getting up there, though I hear the seventy three and morbidly obese is the new 80.
Trump: “Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying this a great thing that’s happening for our country,” he said. “There’s a great day for him. It’s a great day for everybody. It’s a great day for everybody. There’s a great, great day in terms of equality.”
George was unavailable for comment.
Biden: “ George Floyd’s last words, ‘I can’t breathe, I can’t breathe,’ have echoed all across this nation and, quite frankly, around the world. For the president to try to put any other words in the mouth of George Floyd I frankly think is despicable.”
Yeah that Biden is plum wacky.
True, not like Ivanka and her Chinese trademarks.
Probably a woman but I doubt Chelsea Clinton would be interested. I hear Barron is interested in replacing Pence though.
newton,
Well, to be fair to the turnip, his brain is more like that of a six year old.
A morbidly obese (is he the fattest baby president ever) six year old, with some learning difficulties, but still.
More cleverness from Biden
Trump: “
Buffalo protester shoved by Police could be an ANTIFA provocateur. 75 year old Martin Gugino was pushed away after appearing to scan police communications in order to black out the equipment. @OANN I watched, he fell harder than was pushed. Was aiming scanner. Could be a set up?“
Biden:
Quite possibly all this concern with the best Democrat nominee is beside the point. Trump’s floor is unusually high, his ceiling unusually low, because few are undecided. I’ve been watching the polls that find 43% favorability for Trump no matter what – and there has been a LOT of what.
Pollsters say these people would vote for Trump even if he confessed to being on Putin’s payroll – hell, they’d vote for him even if he dies. And this means even the most experienced, charismatic, well-funded incorruptible candidate imaginable (who has never existed) is going to lose that 43%. Whether those folks, plus some confused people, can swing an election through the electoral college is the only question remaining.
Haha. As bad as racism. But commies always get a pass.
So not sharp then?
But why a woman? Dynasty too? Arkancide. Poor ol’ Creepy… But then again, who gives a fuck about the stooge?
Question: has it ever happened that a nominee got 43% of the popular vote and still won the Electoral College? I could look it up myself but I’m supposed to be working on my own research today, so I’m outsourcing to y’all.