Still a Theory in Crisis

Michael Denton’s new book is out, Evolution: Still A Theory In Crisis.

Denton’s stance is for structuralism and against functionalism, especially as functionalism appears in it’s current form as the modern synthesis or neo-Darwinism (the cumulative selection of small adaptive changes).

Denton argues for the reality of the types, that “there are unique taxon-defining novelties not led up to gradually from some antecedent form” and that the lack of intermediates undermines the Darwinian account of evolution. He also argues that a great deal of organic order appears to be non-adaptive, including “a great number of the taxa-defining Bauplans,” and that this also undermines the Darwinian account of evolution. Evo-devo is also showing us that “Darwinian selection is not the only or even the main factor that determined the shape and main branches of the great tree of life.”

These arguments are first set forth in Chapters 3 through 5 of the book and then defended throughout the subsequent chapters.

Denton provides a list of some of the Type-Defining Homologs:

The Pentadactyl Limb
The Feather
The Insect Body Plan
The Flower
The Amniotic Membrane

It is not just the major taxa which are characterized by unique defining homologs or novelties:

Centipedes
Beetles
Ants
Butterflies

Even individual species are often defined by unique novelties (autapomorphies in cladist terminology).

To head off a lot of irrelevant objections and nonsense from people who can’t be bothered to read the book, Denton accepts common descent and doesn’t appeal to “goddidit” as a better explanation.

  • If types exist, what does that mean for Darwinian evolution?
  • Does the existence of non-adaptive order undermine Darwinism?
  • Does anyone think neo-Darwinism is even relevant to modern evolutionary theory?

318 thoughts on “Still a Theory in Crisis

  1. Well looky here. Here is an actual gene study on a living fossil:

    Why “Living Fossil” Is a Poor Term

    The name “living fossil” is unfortunate in some ways. The dawn redwood and Wollemi pine present the best case for the term: recent fossils that appear identical, not just similar, to a living representative. And the survivors were so few that we may not have enough genetic information to explore their evolutionary history in depth. But most “living fossils” don’t match that story.

    The plant group of cycads is an example that used to be in the textbooks (and may still be). The typical cycad in yards and gardens is the sago palm, and it had supposedly been unchanged since Paleozoic time. But today there are about 300 species of cycad, and genetic studies show that most are only a few million years old.

    http://geology.about.com/od/fossilstimeevolution/qt/livingfossilplants.htm

    Doesn’t it seem to bother anyone the living fossil doesn’t have more widely diverged genes between their members? 🙂 The MRCAs are recent.

    One thing I should add, the mutation rates are inferred, they are usually not directly measured. The way to do it was actual measurement of living creatures such as was described in the Loewe and Scherer paper.

  2. stcordova: Purifying selection for the entire genome where nucleotides are treated particulately isn’t feasible ala Kimora.

    Again I have trouble understanding your claims because you use terms so carelessly. What does “treated particulately” mean here? Whose entire genome are you talking about? I thought this was about E. coli, in which case it’s quite possible for the entire genome to be under selection. And what species are you talking about whose entire genome is invariant?

    Sure you can fix the traits of one individual by wiping out the rest of the population because that individual had the trait that kept it alive, but it doesn’t mean purifying selection was in play for the other traits in the genome.

    Agreed; that’s what a selective sweep is. What point are you making here?

    This scenario is effectively a bottle neck.

    Agreed. At least it has the same genetic signature as a bottleneck.

    So MRCA is good explanation if we are talking no mosaic of mutiple ancestral lines, but only one ancestral lines (with some HGT).

    Explanation of what?

    But there is something I didn’t mention, that is more important.What if we find there are really no creatures that have far back MRCAs.What if the living fossils like horse shoe crabs from different geographic regions, sharks, nautilus maybe plants.What if we find samples form widely separated geographical contexts and the MRCA is recent?

    MRCA of what? Of the entire genomes of a species? This is quite unlikely ever to happen with any sexually reproducing species. Let me know if you find any examples. I agree that it would, if it happened, imply an extremely narrow and extended bottleneck (a selective sweep of the whole genome is pretty much ruled out for any sexually reproducing, recombining population).

    This would be an interesting test of the hypothesis:
    http://geology.about.com/od/fossilstimeevolution/qt/livingfossilplants.htm

    A test of what hypothesis? You still seem very confused about the connection, or lack thereof, among genomic change, morphological change, speciation, divergence between species, and coalescence within lineages. What is the test? What is the hypothesis? What is the reason for the hypothesis. Again I ask you to confirm that you are trying to test for a worldwide flood and survival on an ark, all such requests for which you have so far ignored.

  3. stcordova,
    Yet again you seem to have no clear idea what you are claiming, what the data are, and what they show. It’s impossible to discuss this with you at the current state of your confusion.

  4. Still a Theory in Crisis

    OK, I’m going out on a limb:

    INTRA-species variation will indicate relatively recent bottle necks for most species.

    Looks like a nice beer bet. Actually I prefer desert wines. I particularly like this one from Michigan where there are grapes and lots of snow and ice:

    http://www.blackstarfarms.com/harvest-to-bottle-with-a-capella-ice-wine/

    An origin of a new species counts as bottle neck. I later defined “recent” as several million years, how about 10 mya. I also said splitting off of individuals to be the origin of a new species counts as a bottle neck. I also said the intra species variation of living fossils would be interesting and went out on a limb that the hypothesis of MRCA for those would also hold.

    ABSTRACT
    A review of Cycad genes is consistent with a corollary of the Cordova hypothesis that intra specific variation will point to recent origin of extant species even if the species is considered a living fossil.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS
    A computer attached to the internet was used to argue with others about the idea. A literature search using google was conducted to see if there is confirming evidence of fossil plants consistent with Cordova’s hypothesis.

    RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
    Cycads were seen as far back as 300 million years ago. There was the supposition that the Cycads of today were the same as those in the era of dinosaurs, the Mesozoic from 272mya to 65mya. That is the MRCA of Cycads was in the Mesozoic or even the Permian 300 million years ago.

    That supposition of deep-time MRCA cycads was in sharp variance to Cordova’s hypothesis. Recent evidence vindicated Cordova’s hypothesis. A google search found this article:

    Among the plants, people often cite the cycads: a line of fernlike, cone-bearing shrubs that have looked the same since the Permian Period nearly 300 million years ago. Their heyday was in the Jurassic, but today they have dwindled to about 300 species in 11 genera, still with the same old looks and lifestyle. However, in a new paper just published in Science Express, a team led by UC Berkeley paleobotanist Nathalie Nagalingum used genetic methods to show that nearly all of today’s cycad species are actually quite young.

    Nagalingum, whose team included five other plant specialists, tested two independent gene lines in 199 different cycad species to estimate the speed and timing of their evolution.
    ….
    This news overturns a favorite theory that today’s cycad species inherit their characteristics from evolutionary pressures during the days when dinosaurs browsed upon them. Today’s species instead arose in the late Miocene, about 10 to 5 million years ago.

    CONCLUSION

    Cycad data are consistent with corollary of Cordova’s hypothesis that MRCAs of most species will be indicated to not be more than several million years even if the species are considered living fossils. It had been presumed the cycads of today were in the era of dinosaurs and there was the possibility the MRCA was even in the Permian period 300 million years ago since there exist Cycad fossils in that time frame. However, genetic evidence overturned the possibility of a 300 milliion year old MRCA and is consistent with Cordova’s hypothesis that most MRCAs of species specified by autapomorpies will have MRCAs that are relatively recent ( less that or equal 10 mya). Observations agree with Cordova’s theory.

    Sal can celebrate with a few table spoon so Umeshu wine. 🙂

  5. I didn’t think Sal could get any more pathetic in his YEC blithering but fantasizing he wrote a scientific paper that supports his YECkery is a new low.

  6. stcordova: An origin of a new species counts as bottle neck.

    No it doesn’t. Why would you imagine that it does?

    I later defined “recent” as several million years, how about 10 mya.I also said splitting off of individuals to be the origin of a new species counts as a bottle neck.I also said the intra species variation of living fossils would be interesting and went out on a limb that the hypothesis of MRCA for those would also hold.

    Why would variation of living fossils be interesting? Why are you defining “recent” as 10ma, and why do you make this prediction, whatever it is?

    ABSTRACT
    A review of Cycad genes is consistent with a corollary of the Cordova hypothesis that intra specific variation will point to recent origin of extant species even if the species is considered a living fossil.

    Both you and your main source are confused, though perhaps in somewhat different ways. Cycads are not living fossils. The fact that the divergences between sister species of cycads (which is not the same as the ages of the species themselves) are relatively recent for the most part is irrelevant to the within-species divergence you are supposedly talking about. The phenomenon you see is easily explained if we postulate a high species turnover rate in cycads, i.e. both high extinction and high speciation rates. This has nothing at all to do with divergence within species.

    Cycads were seen as far back as 300 million years ago.There was the supposition that the Cycads of today were the same as those in the era of dinosaurs, the Mesozoic from 272mya to 65mya.That is the MRCA of Cycads was in the Mesozoic or even the Permian 300 million years ago.

    And here you confuse the MRCA (a species) of the entire cycad clade with the hypothetical and probably nonexistent MRCA (an individual) of a given cycad species.

    Cycad data are consistent with corollary of Cordova’s hypothesis that MRCAs of most species will be indicated to not be more than several million years even if the species are considered living fossils. It had been presumed the cycads of today were in the era of dinosaurs and there was the possibility the MRCA was even in the Permian period 300 million years ago since there exist Cycad fossils in that time frame.However, genetic evidence overturned the possibility of a 300 milliion year old MRCA and is consistent with Cordova’s hypothesis that most MRCAs of species specified by autapomorpies will have MRCAs that are relatively recent ( less that or equal 10 mya).Observations agree with Cordova’s theory.

    This is all hopelessly confused. None of this has anything to do with your theory. Nobody has claimed anything like the strawman you set up as your alternative hypothesis (current cycad species in the Permian). And I ask again why you have advanced your hypothesis. What leads you to your conjecture?

  7. Now it’s just a matter of those pesky three orders of magnitude, plus another couple for the history of the lineage.

  8. The readers may wonder why I went out on a limb. Simple!

    When I did blast queries some years back, and saw the result of the closest hits, the hits were always close, usually 100% of sequencing experiments in diverse geographical regions. The INTRA-species variation was next to absent. I suspected this could be the case when I looked at the Dayhoff diagrams, but I really really saw it when doing BLAST queries of NIH NCBI data and saw the listings of sequencing experiments. I simply put two and two together — the MRCAs must be recent.

    I saw it in the BLAST queries as far back as I can remember, even before the Cycad study. The results don’t surprise me. Not one iota.

    The cycad study calibrated their molecular clocks with supposed 55 million year old fossils. Of course, they’ll get a date with those orders of magnitude. The clocking methods are flawed, the method that Loewe and Scherer reported on is superior because it uses experimental data rather than speculative methods.

    The cycad studied falsified some ideas. What other problems are lurking?

    One paper by the PI is below. I’m not a phylogenist, so I don’t understand most of the terminology, but I could see enough of the calibration methods that would lead to 10 mya dates.

    http://bmcevolbiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12862-015-0347-8

    Would they be willing to drop the fossil calibration and do a real calibration? They might be horrified at the results just as the horrified researcher that were reported by Loewe and Scherer.

    The most remarkable example is the branch leading to the genus Cycas that is more than 200 million years long. Our results indicate that extant diversification of cycad species occurred in the Neogene, in agreement with other studies [6,38,43]. No crown node of any modern species-rich genus of cycad has an age >19 Ma (credibility intervals extend back to 33 and 29 Ma for Ceratozamia and Cycas). Therefore, the ancient stem divergences of genera are decoupled from their recent crown group radiations. This decoupling can be explained by three hypotheses: (i) the long branches represent periods of low diversity, (ii) the long branches may be the result of periods of extinction [6,38,107,117], but it is unknown whether these were few and sudden or highly protracted, or (iii) the presence of ghost lineages, which are lineages that have temporal and/or geographic gaps in their fossil record (e.g. the Cenozoic fossil record of coelacanths). Our results are consistent with the second hypothesis because we show (i) quasi-synchronous and independent shifts in diversification at the crown (or near) of genus radiations that may be interpreted as the recovery period after an extinction event [107,117], and (ii) high rates of extinction along the long branches of the genus stems that may have extirpated entire lineages [32,33,59]. Our results, as well as fossil evidence [30-33,39,40,42,114-116], support the role of a mass extinction in shaping the cycad timetree, perhaps in the Late Cretaceous when BAMM extinction rates are elevated.

    Mass extinctions? You mean bottleneck processes. Gee, I don’t think I’m getting enough credit. I said:

    OK, I’m going out on a limb:

    INTRA-species variation will indicate relatively recent bottle necks for most species.

    The paper mentions the neogene (23 million years ago) and the word Crown Group:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_group

    In phylogenetics, the crown group of a collection of species consists of the living representatives of the collection together with their ancestors back to their most recent common ancestor as well as all of that ancestor’s descendants. It is thus a clade, a group consisting of a species and all its descendants.

  9. This is all hopelessly confused.

    I disagree with your characterization. You’re just mincing words and not giving a charitable reading.

    I searched for conclusions just like the cycad paper, and lo and behold it was there. It doesn’t surprise me such a paper came out. I suspected it years ago when doing BLAST queries on the gene banks.

    The paper demonstrates what I was trying to say, the exact wording doesn’t matter as much as the fact the data confirm what I suspected.

    This opens to the door of the research I suggested for recent origin of species for every extant species.

    Whether you view me as being wrong doesn’t matter. I didn’t show up here to convince anyone, but I wanted to formulate my ideas more cogently through the process of interaction. In the process, I found a data point I was looking for in the Cycad data. It confirms a suspicion I’ve long held but couldn’t quite articulate.

  10. stcordova:
    This opens to the door of the research I suggested for recent origin of species for every extant species.

    How about research into the ACTUAL origin of every extant species? You make it clear that your conclusions don’t follow the evidence, but that your evidence follows your conclusions.

  11. The reason I gave a 10mya figure was I seemed to recall the E. Coli was given that birth date, this despite the fact it only has 20% conservation! How do they calibrate their clocks? So I said, Ok 10mya is the only figure I have, I’ll go with it, we’ll see if it holds. There may be a calibration issue, but if other studies are calibrated the way it was for the E. Coli clock, we might see that figure emerge again.

    Now I found this:
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23997230

    CONCLUSIONS:

    A single, well-supported phylogenetic hypothesis of the generic relationships of the Cycadales is presented. However, massive extinction events inferred from the fossil record that eliminated broader ancestral distributions within Zamiaceae compromise accurate optimization of ancestral biogeographical areas for that hypothesis. While major lineages of Cycadales are ancient, crown ages of all modern genera are no older than 12 million years, supporting a recent hypothesis of mostly Miocene radiations.

    Gee thanks scientists, you even used the word “recent”. 🙂

  12. stcordova,

    I don’t mean to be impolite, but I have no clear idea what you think you’re saying, only that you are very confused on a great many points. This is clearly because you don’t understand what you’re reading and thus don’t know what you’re talking about. I ask you only to consider the possibility that I’m right in this. We could discuss the nature of your confusion, but you seem interested only in doubling down on it.

  13. stcordova:
    The reason I gave a 10mya figure was I seemed to recall the E. Coli was given that birth date, this despite the fact it only has 20% conservation! How do they calibrate their clocks?So I said, Ok 10mya is the only figure I have, I’ll go with it, we’ll see if it holds.There may be a calibration issue, but if other studies are calibrated the way it was for the E. Coli clock, we might see that figure emerge again.

    Now I found this:
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23997230

    Gee thanks scientists, you even used the word “recent”.

    The word “recent” refers to the hypothesis, not to the ages of the cycads. And once again I should point out that the cycad paper refers to divergences between species, not within them as your hypothesis (if it means anything) actually refers to. You can’t keep conflating all these separate ideas and remain coherent.

    I ask again: what is the reason for this hypothesis of yours? What scenario do you think this hypothesis will support if it ever turned out to be true?

  14. I ask again: what is the reason for this hypothesis of yours?

    I already said it, the lack of intra species divergence! I saw it in BLAST sequences of just about every query I made. Almost no exceptions.

    The cycad papers show exactly the problem because they sampled extant species.

    How do you interpret this statement to the lay reader:

    crown ages of all modern genera are no older than 12 million years,

    The word “crown” is used.

    From wiki definition of Crown group:

    In phylogenetics, the crown group of a collection of species consists of the living representatives of the collection together with their ancestors back to their most recent common ancestor as well as all of that ancestor’s descendants.

    The bold says “most recent common ancestor” as in MRCA.

    So does that mean the MRCAs of each of the cycad genera is not more than 12 mya?

  15. stcordova: I already said it, the lack of intra species divergence! I saw it in BLAST sequences of just about every query I made. Almost no exceptions.

    So you seem here to be talking about the range of genetic variation between individuals in a single species, is that right?

    The cycad papers show exactly the problem because they sampled extant species.

    What problem are you referring to here?

    How do you interpret this statement to the lay reader:

    The word “crown” is used.

    From wiki definition of Crown group:

    The bold says “most recent common ancestor” as in MRCA.

    So does that mean the MRCAs of each of the cycad genera is not more than 12 mya?

    NOW you are apparently NOT talking about the variation within a species, but rather the variation between genera.

    I understand your source as saying that if you take two species of cycads in one genus, they have a common ancestor. Take two species of cycads of another genus, and they have a different common ancestor. Take those two common ancestors, and of course THEY had a common ancestor. And THAT branching is estimated to have occurred no more than 12mya.

    Now, how does this related to genetic variations within a single species?

  16. Flint,
    Note that Sal is using the same term, “common ancestor”, for two quite different things: the population ancestral to two or more species, and the (supposed) individual ancestral to the current population of a single species. But he doesn’t seem to notice that. He’s in his own little world, and nothing anyone says here can penetrate.

  17. Flint:

    So you seem here to be talking about the range of genetic variation between individuals in a single species, is that right?

    Exactly. Or should we say almost near lack of genetic variation.

    What does that suggest to you if they look so similar — like — eh — they might share a common ancestor, like — eh — recently? 🙄

    NOW you are apparently NOT talking about the variation within a species, but rather the variation between genera.

    They talked about genera, but if the genera aren’t really species, then the species are even more recent. You’ve just strengthened my point.

  18. stcordova,

    I already said it, the lack of intra species divergence! I saw it in BLAST sequences of just about every query I made.

    Why do you think intra species divergence would show up on a BLAST? Published genomes tend to be a ‘consensus’ sequence for the entire species (Craig Venter and his dog!). You couldn’t possibly pick up intra species patterns from them.

  19. Sal, despite insisting that you do recognise what MRCA means in a sexual species, you proceed to argue as if you don’t. An MRCA is not the first member of a species, nor (necessarily) a member of a bottlenecked population or the originator of a mutation. It’s just the most recent individual to whom a shared locus can be traced through an assumed series of DNA replications.

    It is perfectly reasonable that cycad, horseshoe crab and human species can have MRCAs of the order of a few tens of thousands of years ago (there will be a distribution, depending on the locus). It depends on effective population size, not the designation ‘living fossil’ or residence on an Ark.

  20. There would, I suspect, be a different pattern of MRCA ages for genomes of animals on the Ark vs the rest of the biosphere (some of it, surely, barely troubled by a Flood, even a big one). Rather than wasting their time BLASTing for intra-species divergence, a YEC who buys into phylogenetic methods could profitably look for this bimodal pattern.

    I confidently predict they won’t find it (you’d think someone would have noticed!). But anyone can have a go.

  21. stcordova,

    They might be horrified at the results just as the horrified researcher that were reported by Loewe and Scherer.

    What were they horrified about? Basing an estimate on a highly variable 7% region of the genome and ignoring the rest?

  22. Sal,
    Your inability to locate variable DNA regions by Blast notwithstanding, there is a rather vast literature on the topic of intraspecific genetic variation. Perhaps you’d like to explore some of it before erroneously concluding that intraspecific divergence does not exist? I would suggest perusing some articles from nearly any issue of the journal Molecular Ecology or essentially any paper on the topic of phylogeography.

  23. Why do you think intra species divergence would show up on a BLAST?

    Some databases have the alleles, others the sequencing experiments, others the strains.

    Dave Carlson:
    there is a rather vast literature on the topic of intraspecific genetic variation.

    Yes, we sometimes call the intra specific variants alleles.

    Some of the huge databases are at the NIH:

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/snp

    http://hapmap.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/whatishapmap.html.en

    But even for humans the total variation is around 0.5%

    But here is a back of the envelope calculation. Humans are 99.5% or so similar to each other. Humans vs. Chimp are 90% – 95% similar on DNA depending on how we do the comparison. Let’s pick 8% since that’s in between. 8% took 6 milliion years, thus 0.5 (human to human) will take 375,000 years assuming the published clocking rates are correct which I doubt they are. In any case the back of the envelope calculation is within a rough order magnitude with the MRCA figures for humans.

    I could sense this gap every species I looked at, but the the phylogenists were so obsessed with interspecies phylogenies (which I think is illusory) few ever seemed to bother with MRCAs for an extant species. The few exceptions are the mtDNA studies and something like the cycad studies.

    Given that each species has maybe 15% orphan genes that none other has:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orphan_gene

    Orphan genes were first discovered when the yeast genome-sequencing project began in 1996.[2] Orphan genes accounted for an estimated 26% of the yeast genome, but it was believed that these genes could be classified when more genomes were sequenced.[3] Since there are between an estimated 1 and 20 million animal species in the world, the discovery was ignored for some time.[10] However, the cumulative number of orphan genes in sequenced genomes did not level off as time passed.[11] In the sequencing of Schizosaccharomyces pombe and Schizosaccharomyces cerevisiae in 2002, researchers found that 14 percent and 19 percent, respectively, of the protein encoding genes were totally unique to that specific species.[3] Unfortunately for the study of orphan genes, researchers were more interested in studying the similar gene sequences and not the unknown regions.[3]

    It was not until 2003 that orphan genes were directly accessed. In a study of Caenorhabditis briggsae and related species, researchers compared over 2000 genes.[3] They proposed that these genes must be evolving too quickly to be detected and are consequently sites of very rapid evolution.[3] In 2005, Wilson examined 122 bacterial species to try to examine whether the large number of orphan genes in many species was legitimate.[11] The study found that it was legitimate and played a role in bacterial adaptation. The definition of taxonomically-restricted genes was introduced into the literature to make orphan genes seem less “mysterious.”[11]

    In 2009, a study went into “‘the dark matter of protein space’’ to analyze the 2,200 domains of unknown function and concluded that they facilitated evolution of novel functions.[12] This was important because orphan genes were recognized to have a purpose at the level of proteins.

    In 2011, a comprehensive genome-wide study of the extent and evolutionary origins of orphan genes in plants was conducted in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana ”[13]

    Estimates of the percentage of genes which are orphans varies enormously between species and between studies; 10-30% is a commonly cited figure.[3]

    I realized there was something amiss in the intra specific variation. It was hardly there compared to the inter specific variation.

    Just as Denton asserted, there are autapomophies, but they stand out because of how similar the members of each species are to each other.

    The species look like islands with features just sort of poofed into existence. And some of the defining features are not noticeable just by sequence comparisons as Shapiro and Sternberg pointed out, there are functional differences that are discrete:

    Another example of differential transcription formatting concerns catabolite repression. The generic signal marking catabolite-repressed sequences in Escherichia coli (the CRP palindromic binding site for the CRP-cAMP complex in Fig. 1) is completely different from its genomic synonym in Bacillus subtilis (CRE element recognised by the catabolite control protein CcpA; Miwa et al., 2000). While both E. coli and B. subtilis use orthologous transport systems to monitor external glucose, independently evolved molecular signal transduction paths connect them to the catabolite repression signals in the genome.

    Shapiro and Sternberg

    It’s almost seems taboo in the evolutionary literature to cite evidence that shows the species look like islands, and part of that is the lack of intra specific variation. It’s only recently I’ve finally gotten figures of how similar humans are to each other. Relative to the differences between us and chimps.

  24. stcordova,

    But here is a back of the envelope calculation. Humans are 99.5% or so similar to each other. Humans vs. Chimp are 90% – 95% similar on DNA depending on how we do the comparison. Let’s pick 8% since that’s in between. 8% took 6 milliion years, thus 0.5 (human to human) will take 375,000 years assuming the published clocking rates are correct which I doubt they are. In any case the back of the envelope calculation is within a rough order magnitude with the MRCA figures for humans.

    So you think humans were genetically homogenous at some point after the human/chimp split, and you are calculating the time to attain 99.5% similarity from that ‘100%’ point, by comparison to the time taken to reach 8% dissimilar between human and chimp? It’s a seriously peculiar version of evolution you attack, Sal.

  25. stcordova,

    Me: Why do you think intra species divergence would show up on a BLAST?

    Sal: Some databases have the alleles, others the sequencing experiments, others the strains.

    OK, and where they do, there is variation. Surely – otherwise there’d be no point in curating the data! 😀 You are saying you have BLASTed intra species datasets and found no variation in them?

  26. You are saying you have BLASTed intra species datasets and found no variation in them?

    Not just BLAST but I’ve seen annotated consensus databases that point out the allele positions (I use the word allele loosely, SNP is probably better). But the suspicion started with BLAST searches.

    The variation in the annotated consensus sequences for humans looked consistent with the 0.5% claim of variation between each human.

    But, I’m not that good with gene browsing, especially the latest stuff. That’s why I decided I had to take evening classes at the NIH so they can set me straight. As a bonus I won’t be just learning the gene browsers but also the RNA and Protein browsers of RNA sequences (from RNA Seq) and protein DNA interactions (ChiP Seq). Maybe there are even browsers for ChiRP-Seq (Chromatin Isolation by RNA purification).

    I even heard about ChIA-PET
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChIA-PET

    not to be confused with:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chia_Pet

  27. Is the problem that intraspecific variation is substantially less than inter-specific variation? How could it be otherwise, given gene flow?

  28. Allan Miller:

    So you think humans were genetically homogenous at some point after the human/chimp split,

    Why not, we genetically homogenous now (0.5% divergence), that suggest to me there was a time we were even more homogenous than we are today. Do you have a problem with that ? 🙂

    Allan Miller:

    So you think humans were genetically homogenous at some point after the human/chimp split,

    Oh, that’s the other thing, how diverse do you think the interbreeding pool of Chimp, Orang, Human, and Gorilla Ancestors were — you know, the one we keep doing Incomplete Lineage Sorting (ILS) hypotheses on.

    http://biologos.org/blogs/dennis-venema-letters-to-the-duchess/evolution-basics-incomplete-lineage-sorting-and-ancestral-population-sizes

    If you think my assumption that at some point humans were mostly homogeneous, then what do you have to say about the interbreeding pool the Chimps Human Orang Gorilla (CHOG) pool we all supposedly came out of? How genetically diverse do you think that interbreeding pool was? 🙂

    We can use ILS to measure population size because discordant trees give us a way to measure the number of alleles present in an ancestral population (which in turn can be used to estimate the number of individuals in that population).


    In the absence of new mutations (which are excluded in these analyses) there is no other way to produce this pattern of inheritance unless all three alleles are present in the (H,G,C) population. Even though the present-day species have only one allele each, we can infer that their shared ancestral population had all three.

    Which is to point out CHOG was more diverse than the more homogenous lineages that proceeded from CHOG, one of them being the line that led to humans.

    And there is another problem because one way to resolve the Orphan Gene issue is to assume ancestral groups had all the genes then got deleted in some of the descendant lines.

    Well then, Ok, one has to invoke reductive evolution rather than cumulative evolution to resolve the phylogeny, but then we get even more absurd looking ancestors that would need all the genes on the planet in LUCA.

  29. To some extent, the degree of polymorphism found in a species is going to reflect sampling effort. Here’s a recent paper on human intraspecific diversity (focusing on copy number variants) using 236 whole genomes from 125 different populations:

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4568308/

    The authors found about 15,000 copy number variants (totaling about 200 megabases) and about 32 million single nucleotide variants. The SNVs alone represent about 1% of the human genome.

    Edit: Here is a relevant paragraph to add:

    The median CNV size was 7396 bp, with 82.2% of events (n = 12,338) less than 25 kbp (24). CNVs mapping to segmental duplications were larger on average (median of 14.4 kbp) than CNVs mapping to the unique portions of the genome (median of 6.2 kbp). Almost one-half of CNV base pairs mapped within previously annotated segmental duplications (a 10-fold enrichment) (Table 1). In total, 217.1 Mbp (7.01%) of the human genome are variable because of CNVs, in contrast to 33.8 Mbp (1.1%) resulting from single-nucleotide variations (Table 1). Deletions (loss of sequence) were less common (representing 85.6 Mbp or 2.77% of the genome) compared with duplications (gain of sequence, 136.1 Mbp or 4.4% of the genome). Furthermore, comparing our data set with other studies of CNVs (21, 27), 67 to 73% of calls we report are unique to our study, whereas we captured 68 to 77% of previously identified CNVs (24).

    Sal, you’re 0.5% estimate is looking a little low, yes?

  30. stcordova: Why not, we genetically homogenous now (0.5% divergence), that suggest to me there was a time we were even more homogenous than we are today. Do you have a problem with that ? 🙂

    Yes, I do. Your argument is “Because we are x% (a low number) divergent today, I reckon we were even less diverse previously.” Say what? Why not “more” diverse previously? Review the M&M threads.
    Oh Look:

    Which is to point out CHOG was more diverse than the more homogenous lineages that proceeded from CHOG, one of them being the line that led to humans.

    More diverse previously. Cool.
    You.Are.Confused.

  31. Allan Miller:

    Is the problem that intraspecific variation is substantially less than inter-specific variation? How could it be otherwise, given gene flow?

    Yes, especially in asexual species.

    If bacteria have been around for over a billion years, should we not see some species of bacteria where the genes are as diverged intraspecifically almost as interspecifically? As far as the E. Coli conservation, the genes that are shared have little intra specific variation, which suggest to me the 80% lack of whole genome conservation is due more to gene loss in each lineage than point mutation, and that’s what the literature suggests.

    But if you don’t see it as a problem, I have no problem with that. 🙂

    I think the question is interesting whether any one finds it a problem or not. The question is whether the MRCAs of all species will indicate recent dates for each crown group of the extant species. That is an interesting question almost independent of the creation/ID/evolution debate.

    ADDENDUM:
    The molecular clocks keep getting revised!

    utational synonymous SNPs were used to estimate a divergence time of 400 years using a new clock rate, in contrast to 14,000 to 70,000 years using the traditional clock rates. The same approaches were applied to three closely related extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli genomes, and similar levels of mutation and recombination were found. This study revealed for the first time the full range of events involved in the evolution of the O157:H7 clone from its O55:H7 ancestor, and suggested that O157:H7 arose quite recently.
    ….
    Relationship of the O55:H7/O157 Lineage to Other E. coli

    In order to put our observations on the balance of changes due to mutation or recombination in context, we constructed a tree for these E. coli strains for which the full genome sequence was available (Figure 3). The levels of sequence identity among the genomes ranged from 97% to 99.9% for shared genes.
    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0008700

    Dang it. See that! I wasn’t imagining things, the other guys see it too! Up to 99.9% similarity. Told you I saw it!

    Also again, when we do intra specific comparisons, we get better clock rates, just like Loewe and Scherer found. This research can’t be stopped because it has relevance to epidemiology.

    The traditional clocks were off by a factor of as much as 175.

  32. Sal, you’re 0.5% estimate is looking a little low, yes?

    No because the copy variants may be a small fraction of the population.

    Suppose we look at strech of DNA that is 20 bases:

    Jane: variant in position 20
    John: variant in position 19
    Harry: variant in position 18
    ….
    Martha: variant in position 1

    So we have variation in all 20 positions, but we don’t say there is 100% variation in that 20 nt strand! That is the problem in the way you characterized your statistics.

    The figure of 99.5% similarity:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_genetic_variation

    On average, in terms of DNA sequence all humans are 99.5% similar to any other humans.

  33. stcordova,

    Why not, we genetically homogenous now (0.5% divergence), that suggest to me there was a time we were even more homogenous than we are today. Do you have a problem with that ?

    It ‘suggests’ no such thing. The extent of our homogeneity could be higher, lower or the same as now, in some ancestral population. You can’t simply assume we were 100% identical at some point in the past and work out when that was from the divergence time with chimps. That would be silly.

  34. stcordova,

    Me: Is the problem that intraspecific variation is substantially less than inter-specific variation? How could it be otherwise, given gene flow?

    Sal: Yes, especially in asexual species.

    Yeesh. There is no gene flow in asexual species (barring occasional HGT). One thing that keeps a sexual population hovering closer to a mean, but allows separated populations to diverge, is sex itself. ie, a sexual population would be expected to be less diverse than a combined set consisting of two non-interbreeding lines.

  35. stcordova,

    If bacteria have been around for over a billion years, should we not see some species of bacteria where the genes are as diverged intraspecifically almost as interspecifically?

    ‘Species’ does not translate well into the prokaryote world. There is no natural separation of ‘intraspecific’ vs ‘interspecific’ variation. But we’d certainly expect more variation between any two lineages, the longer the lineages have been diverging. Which is exactly what we find. Hardly the biggest problem for evolutionary theory to account for.

  36. stcordova,

    Also again, when we do intra specific comparisons, we get better clock rates, just like Loewe and Scherer found.

    They used a hypervariable region, just 7% of the mitochondrial genome. It gives crap clock rates – although it can be useful for fine-scale phylogeny, precisely because it is hypervariable.

  37. stcordova,

    The question is whether the MRCAs of all species will indicate recent dates for each crown group of the extant species.

    As has already been pointed out, a taxonomic MRCA is not the same as a gene locus MRCA.

    A) MRCAs for monomorphic loci are likely to be in the tens to hundreds of thousands of years ago range, for typical eukaryote populations.

    B) MRCAs for taxonomic levels of species and above can be any distance back to the origin of life, 3.8 billion years ago, depending on the rank you look at.

    The two statements are not incompatible.

  38. stcordova,

    If you think my assumption that at some point humans were mostly homogeneous, then what do you have to say about the interbreeding pool the Chimps Human Orang Gorilla (CHOG) pool we all supposedly came out of? How genetically diverse do you think that interbreeding pool was?

    You think this pool consisted of interbreeding chimps, humans, orangs and gorillas, or something very like? 😀 I’d say the diversity of ‘CHOG’ would likely be of the order of any typical interbreeding eukaryotic population, personally. Depends on its effective size, mainly. Most of the differences came later.

  39. Yeesh….
    a sexual population would be expected to be less diverse than a combined set consisting of two non-interbreeding lines.

    You apparently don’t understand the argument.

    In light of what you say, why are E. Coli not so diverged? Could it be it arose recently? How about all those other asexual species that don’t look so diverged INTRA specifically?

    What if we find that lack of INTRA specific diversity to be ubiquitous — that means the MRCAs of most asexual species are recent in geological time. Exactly my hypothesis. You’ve just strengthened my argument.

    I think you are criticizing an argument I’m not making. I hope that clarifies what the claim is: asexual species are not as diverged as would be expected if the MRCAs were far back in geological time.

    I just provided evidence that the E. Coli’s are similar.

    The mainstream view of E. Coli split based on a supposed common ancestor of Salmonella and E. Coli:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escherichia_coli#cite_note-pmid9866203-38

    The last E. coli ancestor split between 20 and 30 million years ago.[38]

    But what does the E. Coli MRCA data indicate based on the strains we actually have vs. phylogenetic speculations?

    I predict if anyone has the guts to try (and the microbiologists and epidemiologists would be the most interested in real phylogenies vs. speculated ones), they’ll see E. Coli MRCA is more recent than the supposed split of E. Coli.

    What happened with evolutionists being surprised with Cycads will be seen with E. Coli. Maybe people know, they just don’t want to come out and say it.

    One of the MRCAs of one clade that is close to the E. coli MRCA is described here:

    RESEARCH ARTICLE
    Summary

    The overall phylogenetic tree indicated that E. coli B and K-12 are the most closely related strains, with E. coli O157:H7 being more
    distantly related, Using genes supporting the B and K-12 clusters, an estimate of the genomic mutation rate from a long-term experiment with E. coli
    B, and an estimate of 200 generations per year, it was estimated that B and K-12 diverged several hundred thousand years ago, while O157:H7 split off from their common ancestor about 1.5–2 million years ago

    Does not one want to come out and say when the E. Coli MRCA existed? Why do the intra specific MRCA not look to agree with the interspecies times of splits?

    Maybe the question doesn’t matter to many, that’s OK, but there does seem to be a gap.

  40. ADDENDUM:

    B and K-12 diverged several hundred thousand years ago, while O157:H7 split off from their common ancestor about 1.5–2 million years ago

    That figure was provided by a paper co-authored by Lenski in 2005.

    But as pointed out, a 2010 a paper indicated the clocks of 0157:H7 were off by as much as a factor of 175!

    Back of the envelope calculation, the split of E. Coli was previously estimated by Lenski as 1.5 to 2 million years ago. Using the revised clock from the more recent paper, and assuming that clock revision applies, 1.5 million/ 175 = 8,571 years ago. 🙂

  41. A 1987 review of Evolution: A Theory in Crisis from Reports of the NCSE. Regarding “molecular equidistance,” either the reviewer, Philip T. Spieth (listed as Assoc. Prof. of Genetics at UC — Berkeley), or Denton’s Shih Tzu has screwed the pooch. I’ll leave it to the pros to say which.

  42. stcordova,

    You apparently don’t understand the argument.

    Probably not. But it’s no good leaping from sexual to asexual organisms and back again. They are sufficiently different for the terms ‘interspecific’ and ‘intraspecific’ to have completely different meanings.

    In light of what you say, why are E. Coli not so diverged? Could it be it arose recently? How about all those other asexual species that don’t look so diverged INTRA specifically?

    E coli go through a tight bottlenecking phase in their life history, and are subject to intense competition. Like Behe’s malaria parasite, their effective population sizes are closer to those of their hosts than their maximal census sizes may suggest. This reduces the amount of variation to be expected.

    Naming species is a human thing. Bacteria that we would call ‘E coli‘ could have arisen recently or a long time ago; I have no particular view on the matter, and it does not affect the possibility of evolution if one finds it recent. It’s certainly not Creationists who are going to find that out, and I doubt people will be shy of publishing regardless of ‘Darwinism’.

    But lack of variation is not in itself a good indicator of recent origin, because there are numerous well-investigated causes of such patterns, such as those mentioned above.

  43. stcordova,

    What if we find that lack of INTRA specific diversity to be ubiquitous — that means the MRCAs of most asexual species are recent in geological time. Exactly my hypothesis. You’ve just strengthened my argument.

    You have pointed to both 99.9% identity and 20% latitude in support of your argument!

  44. stcordova: Using the revised clock from the more recent paper, and assuming that clock revision applies, 1.5 million/ 175 = 8,571 years ago.

    The current strains of E.coli in Lenski’s lab are less than 30 years old.

    Therefore the Flood story is true.

  45. stcordova: You apparently don’t understand the argument.

    Yes, and the reason for that is that you have made neither a coherent claim nor a coherent argument. You are consistently confusing the MRCA of a locus (an individual) with the MRCA of a current population (a population) with the divergence point between two lineages (also a population). This renders your claims impossible to understand.

  46. But lack of variation is not in itself a good indicator of recent origin, because there are numerous well-investigated causes of such patterns, such as those mentioned above.

    Agreed to the extent that MRCA is not the founder of the species any more than the MRCA of Noah is no Adam.

    But, the lack of variation is still an indication of a recent MRCA whatever the reasons. It is an interesting question in it’s own right independent of the Creation/Evolution/ID controversy.

    That said, mirco biologists, epidemiologists, immunologists have a vested interest in the questions related to MRCAs of various microbes. Their work, as seen above, could be yielding recent dates for the MRCAs of microbial species.

    And to that end, just found this. I’ve been saying there will be an incongruity between divergence times and the MRCA of the supposed species that split off.

    The Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor Does Not (Usually) Approximate the Date of Divergence

    With the advent of more sophisticated models and increase in computational power, an ever-growing amount of information can be extracted from DNA sequence data. In particular, recent advances have allowed researchers to estimate the date of historical events for a group of interest including time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA), dates of specific nodes in a phylogeny, and the date of divergence or speciation date. Here I use coalescent simulations and re-analyze an empirical dataset to illustrate the importance of taxon sampling, in particular, on correctly estimating such dates. I show that TMRCA of representatives of a single taxon is often not the same as divergence date due to issues such as incomplete lineage sorting. Of critical importance is when estimating divergence or speciation dates a representative from a different taxonomic lineage must be included in the analysis. Without considering these issues, studies may incorrectly estimate the times at which historical events occurred, which has profound impacts within both research and applied (e.g., those related to public health) settings.

    …..

    See. Told you guys! The NIH and the rest of the medical community are starting to see the lack of utility of those phylogeneitc estimates. It has no relevance to the real evolution relevant to public health.

    To give an idea of the MRCAs being calculated by microbiologists among strains:

    The remarkable level of mutation is similar to the number of SNPs acquired by Salmonella Typhi since divergence from its most recent common ancestor thousands of years ago – compared to just 15 years in this patient.

    https://sangerinstitute.wordpress.com/2016/01/28/super-speed-salmonella-evolution/

    Or maybe Salmonealla were evolving quickly to begin with, people are only surprised because they got the erroneous clock calibrations from evolutionary biologists rather than their fellow microbiologists.

    Here is another prediction: lab measured clock rates will be faster than those speculated by evolutionary biologists. I can see the problem already creeping up in the literature. To quote Huxley:

    “The great tragedy of science – the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.”

    Thomas Huxley

  47. stcordova,

    If you’re looking at intraspecies divergence as a whole, I can’t imagine why we would consider the average difference between any one individual and the reference genome as the most useful measure. Nevertheless, if we want to look at frequencies of polymorphisms, here is a recent 1000 genomes paper that gives some data on both the differences between a typical individual and the reference genome as well as population level frequencies of particular polymorphisms (SNPs, CNVs, structural rearrangements, etc.):

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v526/n7571/full/nature15393.html

    We find that a typical genome differs from the reference human genome at 4.1 million to 5.0 million sites (Fig. 1b and Table 1). Although >99.9% of variants consist of SNPs and short indels, structural variants affect more bases: the typical genome contains an estimated 2,100 to 2,500 structural variants (~1,000 large deletions, ~160 copy-number variants, ~915 Alu insertions, ~128 L1 insertions, ~51 SVA insertions, ~4 NUMTs, and ~10 inversions), affecting ~20 million bases of sequence.

    The total number of observed non-reference sites differs greatly among populations (Fig. 1b). Individuals from African ancestry populations harbour the greatest numbers of variant sites, as predicted by the out-of-Africa model of human origins. Individuals from recently admixed populations show great variability in the number of variants, roughly proportional to the degree of recent African ancestry in their genomes.

    The majority of variants in the data set are rare: ~64 million autosomal variants have a frequency 5% (Extended Data Fig. 3a). Nevertheless, the majority of variants observed in a single genome are common: just 40,000 to 200,000 of the variants in a typical genome (1–4%) have a frequency <0.5% (Fig. 1c and Extended Data Fig. 3b). As such, we estimate that improved rare variant discovery by deep sequencing our entire sample would at least double the total number of variants in our sample but increase the number of variants in a typical genome by only ~20,000 to 60,000.

    It is utterly unclear to me why you find this amount of genetic variation to be anomalously low, especially give our demographic history.

  48. stcordova,

    It is polite to provide the citation.
    You quoted from Pettengill

    Achtman et al responded:

    In 2013 Zhou et al. concluded that Salmonella enterica serovar Agona represents a genetically monomorphic lineage of recent ancestry, whose most recent common ancestor existed in 1932, or earlier. The Abstract stated ‘Agona consists of three lineages with minimal mutational diversity: only 846 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have accumulated in the non-repetitive, core genome since Agona evolved in 1932 and subsequently underwent a major population expansion in the 1960s.’ These conclusions have now been criticized by Pettengill, who claims that the evolutionary models used to date Agona may not have been appropriate, the dating estimates were inaccurate, and the age of emergence of Agona should have been qualified by an upper limit reflecting the date of its divergence from an outgroup, serovar Soerenga. We dispute these claims. Firstly, Pettengill’s analysis of Agona is not justifiable on technical grounds. Secondly, an upper limit for divergence from an outgroup would only be meaningful if the outgroup were closely related to Agona, but close relatives of Agona are yet to be identified. Thirdly, it is not possible to reliably date the time of divergence between Agona and Soerenga. We conclude that Pettengill’s criticism is comparable to a tempest in a teapot.

    Your comment

    Maybe people know, they just don’t want to come out and say it.

    is a classic IDIOTrope that betrays a wholly expected lack of understanding about how science works.

  49. Stcordova via DNA_Jock: Maybe people know, they just don’t want to come out and say it.

    So it’s Okay to accuse published authors of outright dishonesty?

    This is hardly the first time Sal has accused mainstream scientists of lying.

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