I am hoping that some members here are familiar with Bayes’ Theorem and willing to share their knowledge or at the very least interested enough in the topic to do some research and share their opinions.
– What is Bayes Theorem
– What can it tell us
– How does it work
– Can Bayes’ Theorem be abused and if so how
As evidence that Bayes’ Theroem can be abused I offer the following book:
The blurb on Amazon says: …a math equation developed more than 200 years ago by noted European philosopher Thomas Bayes can be used to calculate the probability that God exists.
This book is written by an author with a PhD in theoretical physics, but I think this book is nonsense and an abuse of Bayes’ Theorem and I would like to know what others think and why.
And closer to home I offer the following:
At least one prominent poster here believes that if we observe an eye we can form an opinion about how easy it is to evolve an eye, and that if we observe many eyes in different lineages that we can conclude that it is easy to evolve an eye, and that Bayes’ Theorem supports that conclusion. I think this is nonsense and an abuse of Bayes’ Theorem and I would like to know what others think and why.
I’ve done some reading on Bayes’ Theorem and hope to use this thread as both means and motivation to learn more about it and to expand on the OP as we go along.
Please try to keep it civil. 🙂