http://web.randi.org/the-million-dollar-challenge.html
1.1 How long has this Challenge been open?
The Challenge was first introduced in 1964 when James Randi offered 1,000 to anyone who could demonstrate paranormal powers in a controlled test. The prize has since grown to One Million Dollars.
1.2 How many people have applied for the Challenge?
Between 1964 and 1982, Randi declared that over 650 people had applied. Between 1997 and 2005, there had been a total of 360 official, notarized applications. New applications for the Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge continue to be received every month.
1.3 Has anyone ever passed the preliminary test?
No.
1.4 Has anyone taken a formal test?
Yes. However, the vast majority of applicants and claimants for the Million Dollar Challenge have not taken a formal test, because none of them have passed the preliminary phase of the Challenge.
I would generally think in light of this, paranormal phenomenon are mostly non-existent. I have a lot of skilled gambling friends (some have made millions) and the question of prayer or paranormal phenomenon occasionally comes up when they consider it as a possible angle to make more money. The consensus is that no skilled gambler made money using the paranormal or prayers.
Nevertheless, there are surprisingly modest numbers of Christians who are skilled gamblers who use mathematics to extract advantage in the gambling world. Perhaps the most known names are Doyle Brunson (became a Christian after miraculous healing) and Kevin Blackwood, the others are anonymous for good reasons.
It doesn’t seem that miracles follow any formula, but it seems there are events way out of expectation which some could call miraculous, imho. There was some paranormal phenomenon in my family. I don’t like to talk about it too much because it was creepy. Materialism was in many ways a safer place to be psychologically for me, and hence my interest in science rather than seances, but I think there is a sinister spiritual realm out there for sure which generally eludes the scientific method.
If there is an active spiritual realm out there, it is taking great pains to elude James Randi’s challenge, otherwise James Randi is right, there is no paranormal realm. Analogously, if there is an Intelligent Designer, like paranormal phenomenon, He is avoiding direct means of communicating His existence and has chosen to leave designs and remain mostly out of notice ever since the act of creating the designs. If the Intelligent Designer communicated through the heavens as in the account of Moses, we might not be having the debates we’re having…
I think highly of James Randi’s challenge and for its exposure of many charlatans. I think most religious beliefs are rooted in superstition, coincidence, irrationality and gullibility. I especially saw the casinos profiting from these human weaknesses, and I admit I indirectly profited by other people’s gullibility since I preyed on the casinos who preyed on the gullible.
That said, neither can I run away from personal experience or observation. I briefly met astronaut Charles Duke when he spoke at Campus Crusade for Christ. He walked on the moon, was an Annapolis Naval Academy and MIT Engineering graduate. He was a skilled fighter pilot and then found fame and fortune before becoming a Christian. After his conversion, he testifies of having his prayer for a blind girl answered by when her sight was restored. He probably wouldn’t pass the James Randi challenge either, but neither, given Duke’s career accomplishments, does he have much incentive to be making up fanciful stories, especially in an increasingly anti-Christian climate.
The most successful gamblers I know hate superstition and use of intuition, they love cold hard numbers and rationality. But still, many of the highly successful professional gambler’s I know are split over whether they believe in the paranormal or not. It seems this question is something all their high powered math cannot conclusively answer given the little evidence we have in hand.
phoodoo,
Would you like to defend your faith?
phoodoo,
Did any of this actually happen to anyone, phoodoo?
William J. Murray,
How would you compare Kent Hovind’s $250,000 challenge to prove evolution to his satisfaction? It’s certainly easier to bend a spoon.
Allan Miller,
Not only does this happen, but likewise many people who know him have suggested that he doesn’t even have the million dollars.
And yes, I know people who have tried to reply to his challenge and gotten no answer after repeated attempts. He answered the first request, and then just stopped responding after that. And it costs a fair amount of money to even set-up the experiments.
phoodoo,
No actual backup to the story, then?
So?
Hearsay.
A fellow biochemistry student at university started a cult – his followers all dressed in orange – and he tried to persuade me that he could levitate. “Go on, then”. “I can’t just do it. It would blow your mind; there’d have to be some preparation”. Sure it would. “Oh look, a bloke levitating”, I would think to myself.
The protocols used are mutually agreed. How could they be otherwise given the varying nature of the powers claimed?
Again, incorrect. The demonstrations are mutually agreed. If you had spend any time doing actual research instead of spouting nonsense you’d know this.
For example, many challenges are documented and quotes from the challengers on how it went are available.
That there is evidence that disproves your claims won’t stop you making them will it?
Presumably that’s your excuse as to why you’ll never be able to demonstrate your mind powers in a mutually agreed controlled environment such as the one Randi offers to construct.
Excuse != reason.
Yet here you are critising people for the very same thing you are doing. You keep saying “it’s a fraud” but I’m yet to see any actual evidence for that! Your personal opinion is insufficient to tarnish someone like Randi.
If you had evidence for your claims of fraud you’d present it.
Yes, that’s right. And the more they study it the less evidence of PSI is found. Or do you dispute that?
In short William, your claims about Randi and his challenge fall short due to the lack of actual evidence for them.
Unlike matters of the mind, where your claims can exist because they relate to matters that cannot easily be disproved, here the problem is clear. You call Randi and his challenge a fraud, over and over, but don’t seem to have any evidence for that.
So here we could say that you have blind faith in your personal view, thus no reason to even look for the psi/supernatural research or to actually look into JREF, Randi and the challenge. Check.
Randi’s experimental set-ups are an excellent education in how to set up a valid experiment.
I sometimes link to his video on the Australian dowsers for my students.
And, as OMagain says, William, the protocols are agreed by both the challengers and Randi. In the Australian dowsers experiment, the dowsers were really happy with the protocols, and very confident that they could perform under those conditions. But they couldn’t. And they agreed they couldn’t. They were disappointed by the results, but accepted them.
Some nonetheless thought they could find water, but agreed that they had failed to do so under the experimental conditions, at least above the level expected under the null.
So sure, maybe psi is one of these things that you can’t demontrate using null-hypothesis testing. But then, that becomes a weird postulated property of psi that makes it “shy” and thus not amenable to scientific investigation, not a reason to accuse Randi of being a “huckster”.
It could well be that there are realities in the world that can’t be demonstrated scientifically. Fine. My only beef is with people who make scientific claims that aren’t supported by good science.
Incidentally, my brother-in-law is a dowser, and has some interesting ideas about what it is he picks up with his dowsing method. We are currently trying to arrive at a protocol to test his hypothesis. I’m open minded – I think he might be on to something, and he isn’t interested in any inference that can’t be scientifically demonstrated. So it should be interesting.
In the UK it is now, I believe, the law that upon engaging a medium for a reading they are required to inform you that this is “just for fun”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7354089.stm
So it seems the research is in, and people need to be protected from those who would exploit them by the law no less.
Omagain:
The law doesn’t determine what has been scientifically supported and what has not.
EL:
I didn’t say none of the applicants were “happy” with the protocols; I said that all of the applicants can either accept Randi’s protocols or go home. Of course any protocols that the applicant agrees to in order to take the test are “mutually agreed to”, that’s the nature of any signed contract. But that doesn’t mean the protocols are scientific or fair to the applicant. That’s the nature of con men and magicians – they set marks up to be fooled, even while the marks think everything is on the up and up.
If someone with a vested interest was conducting non-scientific tests with no transparency and no impartial judging and asserting that psi/supernatural events commodities had been successfully demonstrated, what would that prove to you? Nothing, right? You’d want actual scientific research conducted with double and even triple-blind experiments by people qualified to conduct the tests and properly evaluate the results.
It’s just bizarre to me that any adult, intelligent, rational person would even consider using a self-professed stage-magician’s antics, when he has a known, factual vested interest in the outcome (in fact, his whole identity and career depends on negative findings), who produces zero scientific research on the subject, as meaningful evidence of any sort.
In any event, one can easily find this information on Randi and his challenge if they seek to find it, and one can easily find the actual scientific research into the “paranormal”.
That’s your excuse for you not supporting your claims of fraud is it? That I could go find out myself?
I’m not disputing there is scientific research into the “paranormal”. I’m pointing out that that research shows the “paranormal” does not exist.
We’ve been round this loop before, you pull up a specific claim from one researcher that they have found evidence for PSI, I pull up another reference that destroys your reference as unscientific. You then stop responding as you know you are wrong.
There, I’ve saved us the trouble of bothering. Now if you have some actual evidence, present it, otherwise know that your claims of fraud re: Randi simply highlight your own inability to support your own claims.
Please design for me an experimental protocol, that you would be happy with, along those lines whereby proof of PSI can be obtained?
You won’t do it, because all you’ll end up doing is replicating what Randi already does. So you need to find an excuse for you not doing that. But you seem to be expert at finding such, so again we can just leave this here.
You are unhappy with what exists but are unwilling to explain how it could be improved. Noted.
Elizabeth,
Hi! Long time.
As far as psi, science and personal experience, before I became an Evangelical I tried to develop telepathic ability. Two friends would look at a card and I’d try to figure out what it was. I would concentrate hard to try to visualize it. The experiment stopped after a few rounds because the two friends said they saw demons and they ran out of the house.
After becoming an Evangelical, I was told the world of Psi invites demonic influence into people’s lives. It just seemed creepy to me. So I never pursued it more.
Some governments have invested money into Psi in order to do espionage, but the programs discontinued for lack of reliability.
I don’t classify ID as science and if there is Psi phenomenon, I don’t think it is amenable to science because the Psi phenomenon seems to me at the whim of spiritual agents outside of human control.
I referred to one case of a man who had psi ability and then lost it. He was steeped into the occult and then converted to Christianity. He’s now a retired professor of mathematics from a prestigious military university.
The reason I don’t think psi and the paranormal and ID are amenable to traditional science is that the intelligent agencies that cause these phenomenon are generally unwilling to reveal themselves in direct experiment. For example, if the Intelligent Designer of the Universe and Life wanted to reveal Himself, He surely would have the power to do so in every experiment we might conduct that would invite Him to show himself. Some could argue He has chosen to not participate and directly reveal Himself, or others will argue He doesn’t exist. Obviously I’ve chosen the former as an explanation, but most here have chose the latter.
By intelligent agencies that cause these phenomenon you mean ghosts or daemons?
The odd thing is that if you read a certain holy book, the “Intelligent Designer” has no problem appearing directly to issue instructions, burn bushes, carve stone tablets etc. So it happened then, but these days where we have ubiquitous camera phones, cctv etc, not so much.
Why?
OMagain said:
Richard Wiseman, paranormal skeptic, Daily Mail, January 28, 2008, pp 28-29
William Crooke’s Research into mediumship., published in the Quarterly Journal of Science. Crookes was widely regarded as the greatest scientist of his time; his validation of spiritual mediumship cause and uproar in the scientific community.
A couple of his contemporaries said of his and other such research:
SIR WILLIAM BARRETT, (1844-1925) – Professor of physics at the Royal College of Science in Dublin for 37 years, “I’m absolutely convinced of the fact that those who once lived on earth can and do communicate with us. It is hardly possible to convey to the inexperienced an adequate idea of the strength and cumulative force of the evidence (for the afterlife).”
Dr. Alfred Russel Wallace (1823-1913) – Co-originator with Charles Darwin of the natural selection theory of evolution: ” My position is that the phenomena of communicating with those who crossed over – in their entirety do not require further confirmation. They are proved quite as well as facts are proved in other sciences.”
NDE research, published in the Lancet. An excerpt:
Veritas Project, mediumship research conducted by the Universtity of Arizona, which produced publications such as:
Beischel J, Schwartz GE. Anomalous information reception by research mediums demonstrated using a novel triple-blind protocol. EXPLORE: The Journal of Science & Healing. 2007;3(1):23-27.
and
Schwartz GER, Russek LGS, Nelson LA, Barentsen C. Accuracy and replicability of anomalous after-death communication across highly skilled mediums. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research. 2001;65(1):1-25.
Schwartz GE (with Simon WL). The Afterlife Experiments: Breakthrough Scientific Evidence of Life After Death. New York: Pocket Books (division of Simon and Schuster); 2002.
Abstracts of the 40th Parapsychology Foundation International Conference
“The Study of Mediumship: Interdisciplinary Perspectives”
http://www.pflyceum.org/264.html
The Scole Experiment http://www.thescoleexperiment.com/
The Windbridge Institute, which has ongoing mediumship research, with many publications including “ANOMALOUS INFORMATION RECEPTION BY RESEARCH MEDIUMS DEMONSTRATED USING A NOVEL TRIPLE-BLIND PROTOCOL.”
Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research
http://www.princeton.edu/~pear/experiments.html
Excerpt for “Implications and Applications”
There are many publications that PEAR produced during their research, including:
Physical Aspects of Psychic Phenomena (1988). Physics Bulletin, 39, pp. 235-236.
Evidence for Consciousness-Related Anomalies in Random Physical Systems (1989). Foundations of Physics, 19, No. 12, pp.1499-1514.*
Consciousness and Anomalous Physical Phenomena (1995). PEAR Technical Note 95004, May 1995 (32 pages).
The abstract: “Several million experimental trials investigating the ability of human operators to affect the output of various random physical devices have demonstrated small but statistically significant shifts of the distribution means that correlate with operator intention, exhibit repeatable idiosyncratic individual variations, and display consistent patterns of gender dependence, series position development, and internal distribution structure. These effects also appear to be statistically independent of distance and time. In a complementary program of remote perception studies, experimental protocols and analytical scoring methods have been developed to demonstrate and quantify information acquired by individuals about distant geographical locations without the use of normal sensory channels. A wave-mechanical approach to modeling consciousness/environment interactions, based on a metaphorical application of quantum concepts and formalisms, has proven useful in predicting and interpreting the empirical findings and in guiding the development of more incisive experiments.”
Literally hundreds of papers on “paranormal” subjects:
http://www.scientificexploration.org/journal/articles.html
Beischel responds to critics of her extensive mediumship studies:
http://www.skeptiko.com/51-dr-julie-beischel-responds-to-critics-of-psychic-medium-research/
More and ongoing research by the Windbridge Institute:
http://www.windbridge.org/publications/
http://deanradin.blogspot.com/2009/09/skeptic-agrees-that-remote-viewing-is.html
From Dean Radin’s compendum on psi research here:
http://www.deanradin.com/evidence/Parker2003.pdf
However, if those here are content to base their views on the state of paranormal evidence via One Million Dollar Challenges offered by non-scientists with vested interests: http://www.victorzammit.com/skeptics/challenge.html
16 years and no skeptic has taken up the challenge of rebutting the evidence.
I have a comment awaiting moderation, probably due to length.
Does it include specific evidence for your claims? Named challengers and why Randi unreasonably dismissed their claims?
No? I Thought it would not.
@ WJM
Just released your long comment. I imagine it stuck in moderation because it included more than the set limit of links.
Up to you, but I, for one, don’t find more text more convincing.
That’s a very strong claim. Which psi “evidence” is your strongest card? And I’d like to take up the challenge. I can’t offer a million dollars but I can offer something much more valuable; my integrity.
Last time round I picked one of your items and demonstrated there were serious concerns not only with methodology but with the vested interests of the person carrying out that research.
You ignored that counter evidence. And went away for a bit.
So tell you what, please pick what you think is the strongest evidence from the comment you just posted and we can have an OP on it and discuss it in detail.
If you have not done so in a reasonable time I will simply pick the first and proceed.
Also, I would note, that you have failed to name or detail any specific instance where Randi acted as you claimed he acts – dishonestly.
So next time you repeat that claim remember to note that, or I imagine you’ll be acting out of accord with your ‘objective morality’.
Aah, the usual verbose post with lots of links to woo woo websites and anecdotal stories but no actual scientific evidence. Of course topped off with the usual demand that science prove a negative.
When will the woo pushers ever understand that the burden of proof is on them to provide positive evidence of their paranormal claims?
You mean, apart from the last time we had this conversation and I destroyed your claims?
Yeah, whatever.
I’m surprised WJM didn’t latch on to Joe G’s “ghost in the hall” picture recently posted at UD. After all, that has much credibility as any of the other woo “evidence” WJM is pushing here.
I suspect so.
How come Mindpowers Murray hasn’t taken the million yet? Given his claims it would seem trivial. He could then buy some new pants.
Oh dear. I can ever really get used to it – folks who can understand sophisticated things who still subscribe to this.
Flesh this bit out, William. Unfair how? Does he use cameras to induce a PSI limiting field? Does he stop them using misdirection, that pseudo PSI power?
You have (again) failed the basic sniff test others have suggested, if any of this were true society would actually be different.
Omagain,
I provided a link that details the inherently fraudulent nature of the challenge in my first post in this thread.
Michael Prescott’s 4-part comprehensive look at what is wrong with the challenge (and it’s fraudulent nature) by examining the actual wording of the challenge starting here; http://michaelprescott.typepad.com/michael_prescotts_blog/2006/12/the_challenge.html – was the source material for that link and provides more detail.
This site details the refusal of Randi to act in good faith on a Homeopathy challenge:
http://www.psicounsel.com/marius/challenge.html
Scientific research showing homeopathy effective: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1837216/?page=1
Nobel prize winner Brain Josephson reports on the fraudulent tactics used to test Natasha Demkina, a girl that could supposedly diagnose illness/disease simply by looking at a person, here: http://www.tcm.phy.cam.ac.uk/~bdj10/propaganda/
The agreed protocol:
Well, that protocol certainly doesn’t represent a statistical or scientific line between what would be a significant success.
As Josephson said:
Just because protocols are agreed to doesn’t mean that failure to meet the agreed standard actually represents a failure to demonstrate psi or other paranormal events in a statistically or scientifically significant way.
However, I’m perfectly happy to allow self-described “skeptics” continue to peddle the antics of a stage magician with a deep personal and financial interest at stake as significant “evidence” that there is no such thing as psi or other paranormal occurrences/activities.
I’ll just keep pointing at the scientific research that says otherwise. The irony is quite enjoyable.
Homeopathy needs to demonstrate its effectiveness in standard medical trials before Randi or any of us need even to think about it.
Every person who has claimed psychic powers in the past has bee deluded or a fraud. It is reasonable to be hyperskeptical of claims that have absolutely no history of standing up to scrutiny.
Don’t like Randi, make some Youtube videos and get someone else interested. work your way up the ladder.
Do you have the bare minimum of intellect to understand that Randi is not the sole gatekeeper?
William makes his own reality, so perhaps for him he is.
Petrushka said:
Uh, no. Randi is in the business of disproving claims that certainly have not been demonstrated in any medical trails. He has stated before that homeopathy was all BS and con artistry, and obviously acted in bad faith in the lined incident.
Can you support this assertion?
It’s not reasonable to be hyperskeptical of anything. What is reasonable is considered, neutral skepticism. In any event, many paranormal claims have certainly stood up to scrutiny, as the research indicates.
Randi isn’t a gatekeeper of anything but his own publicity and self-serving financial interests, and – as the evidence shows – he is willing to lie (like he did on two occasions concerning Sheldrake’s dog experiments), obfuscate, avoid, dissemble, and misrepresent in order to protect his livelihood.
Thanks for the backhanded compliment. I saw a ghost while in Catholic church once not really trying to have a vision. I wasn’t on drugs, wasn’t in a dream state and have no history of Charles Bonnet syndrome (which does induce realistic-looking visions due to a physiological issue).
Beyond that:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/01/27/family-possessed-seeks-exorcism/4939953/
If so, this lends credibility to the claims of demonic activity in Jesus time.
No, it doesn’t, although the applicants would be very foolish to accept them if they thought they were unfair.
But all the ones I’ve seen seem exemplary. Can you give me an example of one that wasn’t?
Even 0.5 % above long term expectation in the casinos would be enough to clean them out. Using mathematical methods I had around a 1% to 1.5% advantage over the casino and that was enough for them to show me the door once they determined I was skilled (probably using video tapes and computer evaluations).
Something similar could be done in a variety of other markets. Would psychic powers count as insider trading of financial securities? How about national espionage?
As I said, though I accept the paranormal, I don’t think it can be controlled like engineers control matter acting under the laws of physics. The source of the phenomenon must be from a spiritual intelligent agency that chooses to be elusive to formal testing. Otherwise, it is as Randi says, non-existent.
I think Randi is right most of the time to say it is non-existent or charlatanry. It’s great he has the bet going. But I don’t think he is ALWAYS right.
Ah, much like how you can only calculate CSI if the audience is a sympathetic one?
How convenient.
Then you must have an example of when he was wrong, otherwise you would think he was always right.
Do you have such an example? Or do you agree with Williams example(s)? If so, which one?
stcordova,
Almost *any* exploitable supernatural trait would have a massive impact on society. Thank goodness they’re suppressing psi powers with chemtrails.
Uri Geller had some close (they thought) friends whom he convinced he really had psychic powers. When they found out he was in fact lying to them they were dissapoint.
That people are convinced is not the point. People can perform amazing tricks.
Can you explain that? No? He must be doing it via PSI!
James Randi: ‘The Truth about URI GELLER’ page 19.
Except of course William J Murray knows better, he can see into James Randi’s heart of hearts and knows that he is a fraud out at all costs to prevent the truth about PSI getting out.
Randi is not the gatekeeper. Anyone who has some power that should pass Randi’s test could make a zillion dollars without ever crossing Randi’s path.
Sal:
In your opinion, which is more likely, and why?
OMagain:
Yes, and it’s the same William J. Murray who wrote this:
keiths:
So?
So it means that the designer probably does not exist at all, and you’ve made a terrible mistake and wasted many, many hours.
And furthermore, if the designer designs in a way that mimics unguided evolution it means what when ID says that “major forms” are products of design, not evolution, then somebody has to be wrong. If they are products of design then why can’t any ID supporter name one?
If ID says that “major forms” are outside of the reach of evolution AND the designer designs in a way that mimics unguided evolution then the designer cannot design in a way that mimics unguided evolution.
Anyway, the proof that ID is unable to define with specificity what a “major form” actually is is plain for all to see.
You’ve even commented on that thread. If you knew what a “major form” was I assume you’d have noted it there.
So you want it both ways. You want to claim that it’s a prediction of ID that “major forms” are only possible via ID but don’t actually seem to want to name any specific examples of a “major form”.
And back to your “so” then. If the designer designs in a way that mimics unguided evolution then what is “the designer” adding? Take it away, nothing changes. Add it, nothing changes. Occams razor suggests it’s time for “the designer” to go.
stcordova’s gamble doesn’t work because of the incompatibility of the god he’s betting on and the process he’s using to “choose” that god. Granted, I haven’t read the Bible, but from what I remember and have heard/read being around people who have read it, belief rooted in a gambler’s position is not belief at all wrt the Christian god and it certainly doesn’t get you into the Christian version of heaven.
One wonders why you would visit a faith healer to cure your wife, having never read the bible. Don’t you have to have faith for faith healers to “work”?
In any case, William, will you be picking an item from your list of proofs of PSI as the strongest or shall I pick one for us to examine in detail?
So you can’t infer a designer from biology.
Seeing as I wasn’t the one with cancer nor was I the faith healer, I don’t think my faith was at issue. However, it hasn’t been my experience that faith matters all that much – what matters is just not getting in the way and actively trying to prevent things from occurring – IOW, being open to it.
OMagain said:
There’s a million dollars waiting for you from victorzammit.com if you can rebut the best evidence. Since it seems that meeting million dollar challenges is the litmus test here, have at it. I await news of your million dollar triumph.